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Debate House Prices
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Gaps between selling and asking prices
Comments
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Yes, but putting people to work in public spending projects is nothing new in recessions and depressions of the past. It wasn't just limited to Hitler. The US survived it and others have without succumbing to extremes.
I think you are reading into my words a criticism I didn't intend - it was just a statement of fact....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
neverdespairgirl wrote: »I think you are reading into my words a criticism I didn't intend - it was just a statement of fact.
Wow - I didn't think it was that obvious, or you are very perceptive. I shouldn't expect any less from someone who works in the law and the courts.
Yes, admittedly I did feel a twinge of concern it might seem I was promoting something to that would lead to the path of extremism. It is true to say that in Germany they took a very different path during their public works expenditure to put people back to work.
And yes, I do worry about irrationality in an economic and social discontinuation, and fear extremism. We have suffered greatly in the past without going that path and hope we'd be strong and clear minded enough to do the same again.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »The OP said 2 or 2.5 x joint incomes, not 2 or 2.5 average income
Would this mean 4 or 5 times single earnings?
I've for a while starting thinking that in todays world, 4.5 times is realistic affordability.
A person earning £25,000 would then be able to get a mortgage of £112,500 and need £11,250 towards a deposit for 10%. This would allow for a house at £123,750.
The monthly repayments at 6% would be £733. Take home net would roughly be £1,458, so roughly 50% of take home pay. A touch high you may say, bu in context of today world of joint incomes, 25% of net take home would be very affordable.
Checking this against historical affordability http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/25_07_08Affordability.xls its very reasonable
**NOTE** I'm not aware if hbos affordability figures are net or gross.
Maybe Lloyds TSB will be more specific.
Have you really factored in how unemployment and pay-cuts are going to play out in all of your sums?
Have you really understood the scale of the downturn and how it impacts on almost every sector?
Have you been monitoring the downward pressures on all commercial property developers, residential developers, and companies increasingly going bust or reporting very challenging trading environments.
I think your expectations of affordability and value are back from the old-world.
It isn't just restricted to the City, but consider what is happening.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Intl_Business/UK_may_see_thousands_of_job_cuts_in_next_quarter_Reports/articleshow/3541546.cmsLONDON: Thousands may lose their jobs in the Britain's financial sector as many of the companies have witnessed the fastest drop in business levels, profitability and confidence in almost two decades, media reports say.
The Times reported that the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) expects 12,000 or more jobs to be cut in the financial services sector over the next quarter.CBI has unveiled its quarterly financial services survey that was conducted along with accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. Another UK daily The Guardian quoted PwC as saying that the banking sector "remains more depressed than at any other time since 1998".
At the current rate, about 50,000 workers in the financial services sector would be out of work within a year as profits and business levels fall faster than at any time since the survey began in 1989, it added.
The cost of credit is also soaring, and the survey found that profitability of the sector declined at a record rate of 49 pc and is set to continue over the next three months, the The Times report said.
Banks don't like to lend for property purchases in falling markets or where there is much greater risk to their money.The spectre of further job losses and signs that the economy is shrinking have added weight to concerns that millions of indebted Britons will be unable to pay their loan, mortgage and credit card debt.
Consider that some prime real estate in New York lost 90% of peak 1929 value in the Great Depression.The timidity of the banking system appears to have been general and widespread. Indeed the 1939 survey found that over half of the reasons for credit refusals by banks were "bank policy"; only a third were because of "the condition of the borrowing concern."
- Michael A. Bernstein
The Great Depression0 -
Just- average family doesn't consist of two people paid average salaries... Does it now? One will have a higher wage, while probably mum will be part time taking care of kids.
Surely if one is higher and the other is lower, then it goes together to make that family average
Yes there will be higher earner and there will be lower earners, but that is how the UK average salary is contrived.
If you or the family are above the average, then theoretically you should be able to afford a higher priced house.
If they ar below the average then they can afford a less than average price house:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Consider that some prime real estate in New York lost 90% of peak 1929 value in the Great Depression.
Do you have any links for statistical facts on this?
I'm not denying that it may have dropped 90% from peak, but I'm fairly certain that it recovered and exceeded since. It would be interesting to see the recovery from the 1929 Great Depression, especially as it occured only 10 years before the start of the second world war.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Surely if one is higher and the other is lower, then it goes together to make that family average
Yes there will be higher earner and there will be lower earners, but that is how the UK average salary is contrived.
If you or the family are above the average, then theoretically you should be able to afford a higher priced house.
If they ar below the average then they can afford a less than average price house
That is dependant on area, a average price house in london could be a 1 bed flat. Up north that could be a 4 bed detached. Which is the the average house?0 -
That is dependant on area, a average price house in london could be a 1 bed flat. Up north that could be a 4 bed detached. Which is the the average house?
Apparently houses in Aberdeen could quite easily be an average house, currently valued strongly not least to a booming oil industry and high oil prices....... but which might see a return to it being more of a sleepy fishing town as the global slowdown takes unfolds, oil demand falls, oil prices come back down from crazy highs, and jobs are shed / pay rates reduced. Maybe.
ISTL. I'll try and find an internet source for that claim later today.
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Ye clearly know nothing of Aberdeen. I can look out of my window right now over the shores of the Bonny Loch Lehmans and see the little haggises playing together. Oil a plenty, but lots of other industries - skirt making and the wee dram to name but a few. You soft southerners may well go down, but it'll be a cold night on the Burns before I stop playing my ukulele (ed. shurely bagpipes?)but which might see a return to it being more of a sleepy fishing town0 -
Year 2000-2002 prices for me
Not only would you struggle to buy anything at that sort of price currently there is a HUGE difference between 2000 prices and 2002 prices therefore it makes little sense anyway.
Personally I just bought at 15% off 2004 price, will it fall further, yeah probably but making too low offers will get you nowhere if you actually want to buy.0 -
Not only would you struggle to buy anything at that sort of price currently there is a HUGE difference between 2000 prices and 2002 prices therefore it makes little sense anyway.
Personally I just bought at 15% off 2004 price, will it fall further, yeah probably but making too low offers will get you nowhere if you actually want to buy.
But how many really do want to buy at the moment? Very few indeed.Look at the stats to prove that.0
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