House Prices - September predictions

Heyman_2

Decrease of 0-1%

On those rightmove.co.uk figures, they registered a drop of 2.3% for August which is higher than any of the other sources I've seen, so given they only registered a 1% drop for September, could we be looking at only a small drop or no change in September on the FT HP index (on which this poll is based)?

Maybe even a rise?

MrDT

Decrease of more than 1%

Heyman wrote: »

On those rightmove.co.uk figures, they registered a drop of 2.3% for August which is higher than any of the other sources I've seen, so given they only registered a 1% drop for September, could we be looking at only a small drop or no change in September on the FT HP index (on which this poll is based)?

Maybe even a rise?

Rightmove monitor asking prices. Their index can be considered the 'la-la-land house price index'.

And prices are going down in la-la-land even lol!

fatpig_2

horseinhatman wrote: »

up didley up up

You voted in the poll for an increase of greater than 1% this month. So you are officially the biggest mug on this forum. As if we didn't know already. haha

Dithering_Dad

Decrease of 0-1%

I think the falls will slow down, simply because it's finally starting to sink in with most people that a recession in on the cards. I'm thinking that a lot of people who were looking to move into larger homes will now change their minds and instead will 'bunker' down in their current one and try to ride out the financial storm.

I know a few work colleagues who were looking to buy have since reconsidered and are instead talking about increasing their emergency savings and making some mortgage overpayments instead.

Once the recession really takes hold, one would have thought there would be further sharp drops as people start losing their jobs and have to sell their homes (or have them sold from under them), but one wonders if there will be many takers, given that potential purchasers will also be feeling insecure in their jobs (if they still have one) and won't want to make a major purchase until the economy picks up.

mrstinchcombe

This index is ridiculous.

2 years ago it wasn't uncommon to offer above the asking price to secure a property, a year ago you may have had to offer the asking price.

In this climate though offers of 15-25% below asking aren't ridiculous and an offer of 10-15% below will secure a property (unless you encounter an unrealistic/stubborn/stupid seller).

Obviously this isnt factored into the rightmove figures.

johnycoldears

Decrease of more than 1%

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I think the falls will slow down, simply because it's finally starting to sink in with most people that a recession in on the cards. I'm thinking that a lot of people who were looking to move into larger homes will now change their minds and instead will 'bunker' down in their current one and try to ride out the financial storm.

I know a few work colleagues who were looking to buy have since reconsidered and are instead talking about increasing their emergency savings and making some mortgage overpayments instead.

Once the recession really takes hold, one would have thought there would be further sharp drops as people start losing their jobs and have to sell their homes (or have them sold from under them), but one wonders if there will be many takers, given that potential purchasers will also be feeling insecure in their jobs (if they still have one) and won't want to make a major purchase until the economy picks up.

So there's going to be even less buyers out there, but houses won't fall by as much

As has been continuously stated on this forum not everyone will "bunker" down. There will still be forced (repossessions etc) and incentivised ( inherited prperty etc) sellers trying to offload. Less buyers will decrease the demand for these properties and the monthly price falls will continue unabated.
House prices are set at the margin. It is the one house that sells at 25% off, not the millions of identical houses not even up for sale, which dictate the market price - how do you think your house price increased in the first place?

Dithering_Dad

Decrease of 0-1%

johnycoldears wrote: »

So there's going to be even less buyers out there, but houses won't fall by as much

As has been continuously stated on this forum not everyone will "bunker" down. There will still be forced (repossessions etc) and incentivised ( inherited prperty etc) sellers trying to offload. Less buyers will decrease the demand for these properties and the monthly price falls will continue unabated.
House prices are set at the margin. It is the one house that sells at 25% off, not the millions of identical houses not even up for sale, which dictate the market price - how do you think your house price increased in the first place?

I did mention that some people will have to sell their house (or have them sold from under them) no matter what, but these will be in the minority of cases. I do believe the majority of people will just ride out the recession and the credit crunch.

This is why you see the flat line after every crash where sales go into stagnation because while houses are being marketed at affordable prices, the buyers are spooked because of recession and job-loss fears.

This time around everything is much more compressed, with sharp falls in the housing market with recession fears quickly following on its heels. We haven't seen banks in this much trouble since the Great Depression, so I think all models go out of the window. A lot of people are very worried, worried people do not go to the expense of selling a house unless they really really have to and do not to the expense of buying one unless they really really feel secure.

I'm not saying that houses don't have further to drop, I'm just surmising that this time around we may go into a stagnation a lot sooner than normal.

mrstinchcombe

That may be so but simple economics say that as demand is so low prices will continue to fall.

The last 10 years has seen far too many BTL landords enter the market forcing up prices and generally forcing FTBs out the market. With such poor rental yields, less favourable income multiple lending and house prices only going in one direction not many BTL landlords are buying now which is great news for FTBs wishing to enter the market.

We will be experiencing at least a further year of modest falls which is how cycles work!

Chris2685

Decrease of more than 1%

I wouldn't be surprised to see bigger drops next month, with all of these high flying jobs being lost, and the higher end of the market being forced into selling.

neverdespairgirl

Decrease of more than 1%

I reckon both Halifax and N'wide will show drops of about 1.6%