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Debate House Prices
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Domino Effect continues
Cannon_Fodder
Posts: 3,980 Forumite
Comments
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Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
Perhaps they could shift production to dominoes?--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Northfork, West Virginia-based Ameribank Inc. has been closed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said late Friday, marking the 12th bank closure so far this year. Deposits at Ameribank's Ohio branches have been transferred to The Citizens Savings Bank, while Ameribank's Ohio branches will reopen Saturday as Citizens Bank branches, the FDIC said. Ameribank's West Virginia deposits have been transferred to Pioneer Community Bank, and Ameribank's West Virginia branches will reopen as Pioneer branches
....................0 -
It'll be mortar factories closing down next.0
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Perhaps they could shift production to dominoes?
does the world need 2 billion dominos?...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
I suppose a severe recession and high unemployment could further damage the housing market but my thinking is that the Credit Crunch will have done that job.
I know you will all disagree with me.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
I suppose a severe recession and high unemployment could further damage the housing market but my thinking is that the Credit Crunch will have done that job.
I know you will all disagree with me.
I happen to think that the "average" nominal fall will be closer to 30% than 20%, but that falls / stagnation will last much longer than 18 months.
Interest rates should start to fall in 6 months or so, however I doubt that the full benefits will be passed on to borrowers - and certainly not the more marginal borrowers (and I would include FTB with 10% deposit).US housing: it's not a bubble
Moneyweek, December 20050 -
kennyboy66 wrote: »I happen to think that the "average" nominal fall will be closer to 30% than 20%, but that falls / stagnation will last much longer than 18 months.
Interest rates should start to fall in 6 months or so, however I doubt that the full benefits will be passed on to borrowers - and certainly not the more marginal borrowers (and I would include FTB with 10% deposit).
We are living in (as many people have stated) interesting times and I am prepared for anything to happen (including 30% and stagnation). I just think that the credit crunch stopped the market dead so (something like a stock market crash e.g.87) the drop will appear spectacular but be more short lived than a normal housing downturn.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
No suprise but I don't agree.This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
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Banks will be scared to lend the previous income multiples for mortgages. Therefore house prices will have to continue to fall.Krusty & Phil Madoff, 1990 - 2007:
"Buy now because house prices only ever go UP, UP, UP."0 -
We are living in (as many people have stated) interesting times and I am prepared for anything to happen (including 30% and stagnation). I just think that the credit crunch stopped the market dead so (something like a stock market crash e.g.87) the drop will appear spectacular but be more short lived than a normal housing downturn.
You may well be right - it's hard to tell.
I tend to think that it wasn't just because of the credit crunch, and that therefore sentiment will remain negative for some time to come. But I can't be definite about it....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
I suppose a severe recession and high unemployment could further damage the housing market but my thinking is that the Credit Crunch will have done that job.
I know you will all disagree with me.
On Bloomberg and the FT online there have been warnings that the credit crunch is by no means over, that there is a long way to go. There were references to the 'wave of euphoria' that swept prices up being a reaction to the saving of AIG and the money being pumped into the system by the US.
There was also comment that Bradford and Bingley were very vulnerable and could be next.
It also said there is not likely to be much lending between banks as they are all desperately trying to build their own reserves. It was also expected that mortgage lending would drop.
Then there is the increasing unemployment ............0
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