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Debate House Prices
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Domino Effect continues
Comments
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moanymoany wrote: »On Bloomberg and the FT online there have been warnings that the credit crunch is by no means over, that there is a long way to go. There were references to the 'wave of euphoria' that swept prices up being a reaction to the saving of AIG and the money being pumped into the system by the US.
There was also comment that Bradford and Bingley were very vulnerable and could be next.
It also said there is not likely to be much lending between banks as they are all desperately trying to build their own reserves. It was also expected that mortgage lending would drop.
Then there is the increasing unemployment ............
I think the wave of euphoria was more likely to be a result of the banks coming clean ( and purging) toxic debt with the help of the govt.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
i think you're right NDG - there will be many people who will think or have been very close or have had their fingers burnt in this whole saga.
hopefully they have will have learned a lesson.
The 'lesson' being that no matter how badly you screw up (in fact, the worse you screw up) the taxpayer will bail you out. :rotfl:
'Did you run up huge, massive, un-repayable losses? No problem! The govt. will cook up some scheme to take the debt off of your hands and dump it on the rest of the country.'
'No more bailouts' on Monday afternoon after Lehmans was allowed to fail turned into 'the biggest bailout in history' by Friday evening. An impressive U-turn, even by the standards of the incompetents running US fiscal policy.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
I suppose a severe recession and high unemployment could further damage the housing market but my thinking is that the Credit Crunch will have done that job.
I know you will all disagree with me.
Yup, sure do
--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
The 'lesson' being that no matter how badly you screw up (in fact, the worse you screw up) the taxpayer will bail you out. :rotfl:
'Did you run up huge, massive, un-repayable losses? No problem! The govt. will cook up some scheme to take the debt off of your hands and dump it on the rest of the country.'
'No more bailouts' on Monday afternoon after Lehmans was allowed to fail turned into 'the biggest bailout in history' by Friday evening. An impressive U-turn, even by the standards of the incompetents running US fiscal policy.
Been going on for years, they call it bankruptcy.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Yup, sure do
Just watch those interest rates follow CPI down or even the other way round.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Been going on for years, they call it bankruptcy.
Nope - the bailout is designed to prevent bankruptcy.
Frankly, if they were going to spend all that taxpayer money underwriting the debt that the privately owned coroporations had made, they'd have been better to simply nationalise the banks who need bailed out.
At least that way they might see some of the possible upside in return for assuming all the downside risk.
As it stands, it's just social security for big banks.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
Just watch those interest rates follow CPI down or even the other way round.
It's not about interest rates any more.
House Prices are visibly plunging, so the myth of 'can't lose on houses' has taken the large speculative element out of the market.
Banks have rediscovered risk management and are now reluctant to lend to people with a high chance of defaulting and are limiting themselves to sensible multiples of earnings and solid 'low' LTVs. That cuts down the volume of people who can punt money into property. Another chunk of demand taken away.
On top of that, we have a stonking recession building. Not exactly going to encourage people into borrowing large sums of money in the first place. Demand further reduced.
If anything, the next 12 months will probably see a steeper fall than the more than 10% fall that we've seen in the last 12 months.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
hilarious as it may seem, that is what happens in modern society.
do i agree with it? i'm not sure if do - but by not bailing them out, the scenario could have been much worse. i don't know and nobody really knows
that's politicians for you and unfortunately as you know there are many people that believe them and the media...
we've just agreed on something !!!!!! - shall we hug to celebrate?
Chucky, it sounds like you are trying to make friends, next that Downey person.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
lol - no need for online friends!!!!
How very telling that you even felt the need to point that out. No-one was getting at you Chucky - you shouldn't be so paranoid.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
This should assist the house price fall, I don't think.
I am getting a feeling that this HPC could be fairly severe in the short term ( -20% for 18 months top to bottom) and start to bounce in the spring. If the current shenanigans bring confidence back to the market and allow banks to lend to each other again, add to this a 2% drop in interest rates and suppressed demand from FTB's itching to buy.
I suppose a severe recession and high unemployment could further damage the housing market but my thinking is that the Credit Crunch will have done that job.
I know you will all disagree with me.
I just love these old threads
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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