Latest from commodities guru Jim Rogers

wombat42_2

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/investcommodities-now-jim-rogers-/16/07/356091

dunker1

I see the needle is still in the same groove of the broken record.

purch

It does sound like a 'regurgitated' interview...

I was reading an article today concerning Australia, their drought and the resulting harvests.

The expectation is that there will only be enough Wheat harvested to generate seeds to grow next year, and the Canola crop is described as poor. The article went on to say that Aussie exports will be non existant as they will only have enough to fill domestic demand.

On top of that there are numerous reports about poor Corn and Soybean harvests in the U.S. due to bad weather this year.

wombat42_2

Watching and reading commentaries on Bloomberg by finance consultants everyone seems to agree that we are in a long term commodity bull market but prices may dip sort term. It isnt just Jim Rogers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/

Everyone says that demand is set to grow over the next 10 years with new infrastructure in China etc. And also supply will fall as little or no new mines, oil fields etc will be on stream during that timescale.

dunker1

Surely what we are seeing now is the effect of current or imminent recession on major economies, this equals lower demand for commodities, just look at the oil price for example. Theres nothing like a good old recession for killing inflation and this so called commodity boom is surely is meant to equal high inflation.
At least we know Jim is taking a hit right now as he always drones on about the fact he invests via his index, which i see is down massively inline with whats happening. But it doesnt really matter to a multi millionaire like him, but is serious stuff for the smaller guys who have followed him in.
Recently received a mail from a well respected commodities guy who writes for a popular investment magazine, he said its a total mess and he didnt know what was going on, basically he had his fingers crossed that the basics of supply and demand would win through. All i can say to that is ...yikes...good luck.

wombat42_2

dunker1 wrote: »

Surely what we are seeing now is the effect of current or imminent recession on major economies, this equals lower demand for commodities, just look at the oil price for example. Theres nothing like a good old recession for killing inflation and this so called commodity boom is surely is meant to equal high inflation.
At least we know Jim is taking a hit right now as he always drones on about the fact he invests via his index, which i see is down massively inline with whats happening. But it doesnt really matter to a multi millionaire like him, but is serious stuff for the smaller guys who have followed him in.
Recently received a mail from a well respected commodities guy who writes for a popular investment magazine, he said its a total mess and he didnt know what was going on, basically he had his fingers crossed that the basics of supply and demand would win through. All i can say to that is ...yikes...good luck.

Jim Rogers is saying that Comodities will be a lot higher in 10 years time due to the simple fact that demand will be high and supply will be low. But he says short term expect dips of up to 50%. His predictions in the last 5 years have been uncanny - he predicted the recent commodities boom etc. I dont think he is just in it to promote his index - he rarely even mentions it.

So unless you can leave your commodity investment alone for around 10 years (or 5 years minimum) , commodities are best avoided.

sabretoothtigger

If AIG tanks, that will be the big one. AIG has more to do with the oil price right now than the Saudis do," said Larry Grace, an energy analyst at Kim Eng Securities in Hong Kong.

dunker1

Ive just been informed that AIG is more than likely going under, they are the underwriters for various ETFs....grains, sugar etc...if thats the case then these could be worthless.....anyone who bought into these will lose the lot.

wombat42_2

dunker1 wrote: »

Ive just been informed that AIG is more than likely going under, they are the underwriters for various ETFs....grains, sugar etc...if thats the case then these could be worthless.....anyone who bought into these will lose the lot.

Cant find any links supporting this possibility. I dont think ETF would be allowed to go bust as the financial market would go into a complete frenzy.

dunker1

Trading on these is suspended for now im sure, and been informed by someone at selftrade they could end up worthless.

purch

Ive just been informed that AIG is more than likely going under

By whom ??

Does this oracle have anything more to add than the markets knew yesterday ??

AIG had it's debt rating downgraded last night which will make any 'rescue' package more difficult to put together.

AIG do underwrite many financial instruments, including many Exchange Traded Funds, so their demise will be a bigger potential hit for the markets than anything that has happened so far.............