FANNY MAE and all that - plus the Nationwide merger

Qual123

no need to be sorry! you make very valid points but i feel there is nothing to stop a recovery now. if banks can once again sell on their mortgage books then surely this will allow them to lend more. As we are all very aware lenders are greedy and will fight eachother for buisness. This is a good thing for all of us.

I know the media are still talking about doom and gloom but is this not because bad news sells papers?

dwsjarcmcd

To your last point, maybe it is media led but the fundamentals of the market means property remains overvalued. The impact of SIV's still need to unwind and they need to be repaid by lenders, which will have an impact on lenders liquidity, which will impact on their ability to lend. That plus increasing arrears and what will need to be a changing business model to drive out some profit.

The market will be led by the likes of HSBC, or Abbey who don't seem as exposed to the wholesale markets, and may just create a sustained price war....but it will be for re-mortgage busines only. IMHO anyway!

David

ManAtHome

Qual123 wrote: »

but i feel there is nothing to stop a recovery now. if banks can once again sell on their mortgage books then surely this will allow them to lend more.

The only takers for mortgage books seem to be central banks, and then more in desperation than anything else. Can't see the world at large queuing up to get around 5% return on mortgage debt - would need something like that to offer morgage rates under 6% for other than certifiably 'prime' customers.

sarkin

dwsjarcmcd wrote: »

Sorry qual but I disagree, not that rates may fall, but personally I think that swap rates they have fallen so much in the last few weeks that they will stagnate around current levels. It is the falls in swap rates which has made lenders re-price their fixed rates.

Where I disagree is that the market will return to normal. Lenders are de-risking their books and increasing their margins, which means that rates over 90% LTV will still be higher. That plus the housing market means there will only be reasonable volumes of re-mortgage business around. The purchase market will remain dead, as will BTL and self cert, not to mention all those stuck with NR Together mortgages. I agree with Mr Beale of the Nationwide, 2010 before there is a recovery.

David

I agree with David this is how I see the market over the next 2 years, people with good credit score, provable income and under 75% ltv will be ok everyone else will be hung out to dry. The banks have lost billions they are not going to starting chucking money around to any Tom !!!!!! or Harry as they used to.

House prices will carry on the downward trend which is good news for everyone, this is not doom and gloom reporting they are reporting the truth which as the Guy at Nationwide said the other day. Prices will fall 25% over the next 2 years, so add another 10% for the real figure as these guys where Bulls until 2 weeks ago.

You see I like lower house prices as it is great for the economy as everyone has more money to spend on other things.