FANNY MAE and all that - plus the Nationwide merger

manikm

Guys,

What impact (if any) do you think these will have on mortgage rates within the next month(s) or so?

Rates to come down!? not by much? not at all?

I'll be interested to hear your views!

Nice one.

lagi

The main talk seems to be about Freddie and Fannie and the Nationwide merger seems to have taken a back seat.

Firstly Fannie and Freddie situation, i see will have an impact on our rates. Wouldn't have thought anything until November previously but don't think a change in October should be ruled out to allow some spending upto and over Christmas. Am seeing this as a drop.

Secondly, Nationwide seem pretty astute and reckon this is just a good business deal at the right time (for themselves.) It also bolsters their position in the market. Again, i can see other companies making a bold statement and dropping their rates to show they are still around. I would expect Nationwide to come back with even better deals but not immediately.

So overall i can see rates coming down due to these factors.

(These are all my own opinions and are pure speculation)

manikm

hmmmm - you see - all this makes me want to hold off remortgaging 1st Oct and going onto SVR for a few months.

Sconifer

I'm getting the impression you're after a fixed rate manikm? If so, just bear in mind that we haven't always seen these drop in line with, or at the same time as, the base rate.

One other option you could consider is a tracker mortgage, particularly if you envisage rates dropping and staying low for a while. Then the full benefit of the BoE's decision should reach you.

manikm

Sconifer wrote: »

I'm getting the impression you're after a fixed rate manikm? If so, just bear in mind that we haven't always seen these drop in line with, or at the same time as, the base rate.

One other option you could consider is a tracker mortgage, particularly if you envisage rates dropping and staying low for a while. Then the full benefit of the BoE's decision should reach you.

not at all mate, i just dont want to be paying over the odds on a mortgage.

all i want is a fair rate really, by that im talking 5.5%

it will come, but i think it won't be till about Dec or Jan - and i dont know if i want to pay the SVR for 2 or 3 months at 7.2% - maybe i should.

Sconifer

If you think the rates will come down then moving to a tracker will allow you to immediately benefit from a better rate than the SVR, and also capitalise on any further reductions in base rate going forward. The only benefit in moving on to the SVR is if you are holding out for a better fixed rate offer than those currently available.

I'm actually in a similar position to you, with my current product coming to an end in January. Historically I've always preferred fixed rates to trackers but it just feels the wrong time to me to be fixing in to rates when they seem, relatively, high.

Good luck, though.

dws_72

In the same position myself, mine finishes on the 20th of this month from .13 below base, i thinking of fixing for 3 yrs with abbey who i am with now @.84 above base just so i now where i am at each month, the mav and may thing in the states imo won't make interest rates fall i just think banks won't be too scared to lend to people, correct me if i'm wrong someone.
i've been pondering for the last 3-4 weeks and i think this may be the best option at the mo,
other than that like one of the other poster, pay the svr for a few months and see what happens. aarrrgghh, now i don't know what to do anymore...!!

Dan_1976

The world is ending tomorrow so none of it matters! LOL

NAtionwide will be business as normal.

Fannie and Freddie will not impact here for a bit. Maybe 6 months but I think it may give confidence.

The UK has its own problems so the US in only a part of it!

Cannon_Fodder

Are the signs so certain that inflation will have gone away, enough, to allow rate cuts by winter?

Despite oil price easing, gas co's are putting big increases in the pipeline, and presumably that will hit as the bulk of use comes in winter, and then feeds into winter inflation figures ?

Qual123

I see things a little different, the cash injection into fannie mae and freddie mac has the potential to re-open the money markets. This will be the first step to recovery. This is much bigger than the bank of england, as we have seen recently the lenders do not follow the BOE. If the money markets open up again then lenders will be fighting for buisness again no matter what the BOE does.

A good indication of how the lenders see the rates going is by looking at what they are selling, if you look on Tri Gold you will see that lenders are pushing fixed rate deals at the mo, this is because they feel rates will be cut in the next couple of months.

Im gonna go out on a limb here and say that brokers will see an improvement by christmas and the market back to normal ( without the 100% deals) by April / May next year!

im sure some of you dont agree with me and i lookforward to your comments.

dwsjarcmcd

Qual123 wrote: »

I see things a little different, the cash injection into fannie mae and freddie mac has the potential to re-open the money markets. This will be the first step to recovery. This is much bigger than the bank of england, as we have seen recently the lenders do not follow the BOE. If the money markets open up again then lenders will be fighting for buisness again no matter what the BOE does.

A good indication of how the lenders see the rates going is by looking at what they are selling, if you look on Tri Gold you will see that lenders are pushing fixed rate deals at the mo, this is because they feel rates will be cut in the next couple of months.

Im gonna go out on a limb here and say that brokers will see an improvement by christmas and the market back to normal ( without the 100% deals) by April / May next year!

im sure some of you dont agree with me and i lookforward to your comments.

Sorry qual but I disagree, not that rates may fall, but personally I think that swap rates they have fallen so much in the last few weeks that they will stagnate around current levels. It is the falls in swap rates which has made lenders re-price their fixed rates.

Where I disagree is that the market will return to normal. Lenders are de-risking their books and increasing their margins, which means that rates over 90% LTV will still be higher. That plus the housing market means there will only be reasonable volumes of re-mortgage business around. The purchase market will remain dead, as will BTL and self cert, not to mention all those stuck with NR Together mortgages. I agree with Mr Beale of the Nationwide, 2010 before there is a recovery.

David