Average House will loose 26k in 2008 !!!

ultra10

No Link because i've extrapolated this myself, according to Nationwides figures the break-down so far in 2008 is as follows ..
Aug drop = £4662 :eek:
July drop = £3099
June drop = £1168
May drop = £4972
Apr drop= £555
Mar drop= £248
Feb drop= £1115
Jan drop= £1607

Total so far £ 17426 divided by 8 months is an average drop of £2178 per month....
£2178 x 12 = £ 26139 is my analysis flawed, but as we are only just entering Recession I can't imagine anyone thinking property prices will bottom out by Christmas time !!! Also note the losses for the last 4 months as opposed to the first 4 months of 2008 !!! ... an indication of how great the total losses are going to be !!!! HUGE !!!

RichOneday_2

Just another £40,000 to go now then.....

mitchaa

How do you loose money? Do you let it off it's lead

I think it is more than possible to lose £26k or so this year dependent on where you are living in the country.

It probably will bottom out though mid 2009 as the continual downward spiral has to come to an end at some point. My guess around the £145-150k mark before stagnating there for 6-12months.

justpurchased

ultra10 wrote: »

No Link because ive extrapolated this myself, according to nationwides figures the break-down so far in 2008 is as follows ..
Aug drop = £4662 :eek:
July drop = £3099
June drop = £1168
May drop = £4972
Apr drop= £555
Mar drop= £248
Feb drop= £1115
Jan drop= £1607

Total so far £ 17426 divided by 8 months is an average drop of £2178 per month....
£2178 x 12 = £ 26139 is my analysis flawed, but as we are only just entering recession I cant imagine anyone thinking property prices will bottom out by Christmas time !!! Also note the losses for the last 4 months as opposed to the first 4 months of 2008 !!! ... an indication of how great the total losses are going to be !!!! HUGE !!!

Did you deduct the previous months drop from the total to work out the next months drop. Eg. 10% off £100 is £10 but the nex month it is 10% off £90 =£9 and so on.

ultra10

justpurchased wrote: »

Did you deduct the previous months drop from the total to work out the next months drop. Eg. 10% off £100 is £10 but the nex month it is 10% off £90 =£9 and so on.

No lifted the ACTUAL reductions from the nationwide website not percentages..

justpurchased

ultra10 wrote: »

No lifted the ACTUAL reductions from the nationwide website not percentages..

Thats fine,
But your analysis is flawed as you can not set an average to be fact only to give an YOY an estimation. So you estimate the average house will lose that the fact at the moment is that it is 10.5%.YOY. If you wanted to estimate a year you would use full YOY figures. In the current market it basicly a pure guess, but your last 4 months could be from +1 to -2% per month and no one could realy argue any different.
Anything could show as the transactions are so low in vloume.

StevieJ

ultra10 wrote: »

No Link because i've extrapolated this myself, according to Nationwides figures the break-down so far in 2008 is as follows ..
Aug drop = £4662 :eek:
July drop = £3099
June drop = £1168
May drop = £4972
Apr drop= £555
Mar drop= £248
Feb drop= £1115
Jan drop= £1607

Total so far £ 17426 divided by 8 months is an average drop of £2178 per month....
£2178 x 12 = £ 26139 is my analysis flawed, but as we are only just entering Recession I can't imagine anyone thinking property prices will bottom out by Christmas time !!! Also note the losses for the last 4 months as opposed to the first 4 months of 2008 !!! ... an indication of how great the total losses are going to be !!!! HUGE !!!

Did you do all this analysis when they were going up?

Voyager2002

When will houses be free?

This is good news, because at some point I might be able to afford a decent-sized place to live.

RichOneday_2

justpurchased wrote: »

Thats fine,
But your analysis is flawed as you can not set an average to be fact only to give an YOY an estimation. So you estimate the average house will lose that the fact at the moment is that it is 10.5%.YOY.

But Ultra10's estimate is far more meaningful than the 10.5% historical data if you are trying to predict what is GOING to happen. The 10.5% is effectively a 12-month moving average centred on 6 months ago - about as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

justpurchased

RichOneday wrote: »

But Ultra10's estimate is far more meaningful than the 10.5% historical data if you are trying to predict what is GOING to happen. The 10.5% is effectively a 12-month moving average centred on 6 months ago - about as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

But yet they are an estimate, so also as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Based on those figures an average house will be free in 6.3 years! Will that be the case! You can do anything with figures as well you know a house is worth £XX,XXX more than it was 10 years ago.

luvpump

justpurchased wrote: »

But yet they are an estimate, so also as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Based on those figures an average house will be free in 6.3 years! Will that be the case! You can do anything with figures as well you know a house is worth £XX,XXX more than it was 10 years ago.

Now your just being foolish , it is as good an estimate as any on an annualized basis & I would wager the figure of £26k will be quite close to the mark at year end 2008...& if I am not mistaken is what the banner says... Property to lose 26k in 2008..