What year will it drop to?

wymondham

Chris2685 wrote: »

What year do you think prices will mirror when the crash finally bottoms out?

Do you think house prices will drop to pre-2000 levels? Do you think they are unlikely to drop much below 2005 levels?

I would be interested to hear peoples views on this, without too much bickering please! lol

I think it depends on unemployment. If it rises as it is expected to then this will really knock the housing market and I think prices could drop substantially ... to early '90s maybe??

LillyJ

I think they won't go much lower than 2002-4. I just know that round here anyway, that those levels would be extremely affordable and I know a lot of my friends are waiting for 2004 prices then buying as that is the sort of price which would allow them to buy comfortably without a stretch.
I think in the South East and more expensive areas it could be more, but who knows?
I don't think the average house price means that much, especially when it includes tens of thousands of new build flats round here that can't be given away!

WasBlindButNowSee

1998 would be good 1991 would be great!

dopester

LillyJ wrote: »

I think they won't go much lower than 2002-4. I just know that round here anyway, that those levels would be extremely affordable and I know a lot of my friends are waiting for 2004 prices then buying as that is the sort of price which would allow them to buy comfortably without a stretch.

1) Have they got full cash to buy? The further house prices fall, the more credit will be restricted - and/or - become more expensive to obtain. We might see the lending system lock-up near completely.

2) Are their jobs safe from:

a) Redundancy, b) Paycuts - because all job-losses have a knock-on to effect to all other types of business.

mitchaa

There are a lot of lunatics on here;)

I tell you, we will all be buying multiple homes soon:rotfl:

In all seriousness £145-150k levels before stabling off for a year to 18mths and then back up again at a much slower rate than before.

Not dropping below £145k levels though:p

wymondham

mitchaa wrote: »

Not dropping below £145k levels though:p

[polishes crystal ball]

Normally I would agree with you, but I think the banks lending problem will fade into the background soon as unemployment becomes the main issue causing these bigger drops. This is far worse as it effects those already with a mortgage and causes the high street to 'dry up'. At present, unemployment has not even entered the game in any serious amounts, but will probably by Christmas, making this 'dip' much more like the one in 90's.

I'd like to point out I have no idea really, just going by what I'm seeing - in our own company we have already started reducing staff as sales especially have been hit very hard.

dopester

wymondham wrote: »

just going by what I'm seeing - in our own company we have already started reducing staff as sales especially have been hit very hard.

Get used to it. This economy is seriously contracting now the HPI-economy boom has ended and contracts hard on itself.

Layoffs, pay-cuts, require fewer staff to work more hours, lock-outs, & skim the pension fund for good measure.

lostinrates

dopester wrote: »

Get used to it. This economy is seriously contracting now the HPI-economy boom has ended and contracts hard on itself.

Layoffs, pay-cuts, require fewer staff to work more hours, lock-outs, & skim the pension fund for good measure.

So far Mr Lostinrates is ok, BUT we are a bit gutted because one very useful perk has been discontinued. The employer had property available for medium term stays abroad to employees...short term will continue to be in employer paid for hotels but medium term will now be employees issue. I've stayed in two of these littl flats before and they were lovely if bijou and in simply fantasic locarons otherwise out of the reach of DH and I and we were very much looking forward to access to the same next year when DH has a six moth seat abroad. Now he'll have to find own accomodation on a six month et, very awkward and very much more expensive :rolleyes: . On the very positive side he is empoyed and I think next year that might feel a blessing in itself

manhattan

pickledpink wrote: »

The joke is, IF you were ever to buy and YOUR property fell you'd be the FIRST to moan,moan,moan.............................

There is no joke, IF i buy (at a reasonable price) and the price fell i couldnt give a damn!

IF i buy it would be for a HOME not an investment! (which seems like you have)

And by the way, you have no chance of propping up the housing market with your waffle on here. It is obvious that you have a vested interest in property and you really are in the !!!!!! :rotfl:

obsessed_saver

I think to try to call the bottom in a predictable way would be impossible.

Much better to just find out at what price point will you be comfortable with buying at, and buy then.

For me, my measure would be buying a house with a 90% mortgage that would result in interest per month equivalent to rental. Of course, I would be putting in a big initial payment and not just 10%, but this is my measure of "affordability". Maybe 2003/2004 levels (depending on the prevailing interest rate).