What year will it drop to?

Chris2685

Thanks for all of the interesting responses guys. Seems like there is quite a varied opinion out there and lots of different theories floating about!

The one thing I am sure of though is that no one knows for certain what will happen!

I was also pretty shocked to see how early people got up (or was it how late they went to bed?) on a bank holiday!

space_rider

Chris2685 wrote: »

Thanks for all of the interesting responses guys. Seems like there is quite a varied opinion out there and lots of different theories floating about!

The one thing I am sure of though is that no one knows for certain what will happen!

I was also pretty shocked to see how early people got up (or was it how late they went to bed?) on a bank holiday!

Still in bed :j

RichOneday_2

pickledpink wrote: »

It's funny how wishful thinking can distort the mind. It's a bit like those people who spend £10 a week on the lottery - they're convinced they're going to win one day.:rotfl:

The only reason you same few posters keep twittering on about how fantastic it would be if property fell by 50% (which it won't) is because you want to put people off buying now in the hope YOU'LL benefit!!

You don't care if families who have bought in the last couple of years' find themselves homeless - just as long as you can get your own grubby paws on a property at a ridiculously low level.

You're like a bunch of vultures picking over dead carcasses. Quite repulsive actually.

The joke is, IF you were ever to buy and YOUR property fell you'd be the FIRST to moan,moan,moan.............................

Anyway, it ain't gonna happen! Most properties are not falling - they're not moving. It's all static out there. And d'you know why? Cos except for the s***holes, or the few where people have HAD to sell - no homeowner is going to put their property up for sale in this market! They're staying put!:p

My goodness what a silly post!

Do you seriously think that a few posters on here can cause the housing market to fall when otherwise it wouldn't?

Why are you making sweeping assumptions about people being 'vultures picking over dead carcasses'? And how does this work? Buying properties that are being repossessed? Quite frankly I wouldn't be touching them with a bargepole because of the further falls on the way.

Maybe, just maybe, posters are predicting falls of the magnitude stated because they actually believe what they are saying and have enough experience of previous cycles to know that the first stages of a downturn are usually soft because of a perception that 'it will only be a minor blip'. Only later does reality kick in and the steepest falls occur. There is nothing new in this - just look at the graph above.

If you've fallen foul of the market somehow by buying at the peak it is hardly the fault of realistic posters on here.

Cranston_2

amcluesent wrote: »

Reversion to trend of 3.5 income multiple, but first there will be an overshoot on the way down, perhaps to 2.8 multiple, due to the effect of 'margin calls' on LTV ratios.

Well put.

I obviously agree with you and I think that ratio makes a lot of sense.

Pobby

RichOneday wrote: »

My goodness what a silly post!

Do you seriously think that a few posters on here can cause the housing market to fall when otherwise it wouldn't?

Why are you making sweeping assumptions about people being 'vultures picking over dead carcasses'? And how does this work? Buying properties that are being repossessed? Quite frankly I wouldn't be touching them with a bargepole because of the further falls on the way.

Maybe, just maybe, posters are predicting falls of the magnitude stated because they actually believe what they are saying and have enough experience of previous cycles to know that the first stages of a downturn are usually soft because of a perception that 'it will only be a minor blip'. Only later does reality kick in and the steepest falls occur. There is nothing new in this - just look at the graph above.

If you've fallen foul of the market somehow by buying at the peak it is hardly the fault of realistic posters on here.

Yes he`s good at silly posts. Reminds me of Bruno but nowhere near as funny. Hey wait a minute. It could be Bruno with a personality bypass.

Pobby

Just in case you don`t know who bruno is he was a very hard line bear that turned crazy bull overnight. Due to some pretty wayout listings on youtube it appears that he has been banned again.

A short while ago a groupg from housepricecrash had a Soho pub meet. Bruno threatened to turn up with a gun as he hates property bears. I believe he was arrested.

Just a couple of clips I have found on youtube

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=9rtD2omE2N0&feature=related

The above is about selling to rent and profiting from a fall in house prices.


This is Brunos bedroom. Please be aware that this contains adult material

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=dGhaZJpmUJM

rizla01

Just to cheer things up a little.

THE Bank of England was last night told to give it a rest for a few weeks, or at least start things off with a joke.

After reading the Bank's latest Assessment of the UK economy, experts said they would rather spend two hours locked in a room with Gail Porter.

Julian Cook, chief economist at Donnelly-McPartlin, said: "How's about this? Kick off with that joke about the guy who has a big orange for a head and then go into the stuff about how our houses are worth less than cat !!!! and we'll all be rummaging through the bins by Christmas.

"Then you can round things off with a Garfield cartoon or a Far Side one about dogs and cats."

Tom Logan, at Porter, Pinkney and Turner, said: "If Mervyn King is determined to publish this god-awful stuff every month, can he at least get Emo Phillips to read it out.

"If I am going to lose my job and my house and be forced into intravenous drug use, I'd prefer to hear about it in a weird, funny, up-and-down voice."

Bank governor Mervyn King is said to be open to a more cheerful method of delivering hellish economic news, with sources suggesting the next report will be turned into a song by Chas and Dave.

Meanwhile the BBC has promised to bring a lighter touch its economic news by starting off with Del Boy falling through the gap in the bar and then finishing with that bit where they unscrew the wrong chandelier.

teabelly

It depends on the type of property, the area and general demand in the local area. Local economics will dictate the demand more than what is going on in a national level. The southerners who insist on all trying to cram onto a 2 foot square edge of the country only have themselves to blame. Just about everywhere else has seen sensible price increases of a few percent a year. The south will probably crash and burn in the realisation that their inhabitants are chumps that chose to pay 200k for a rabbit hutch studio flat while those of us up north buy 4 bed detached houses for the same money. It is very irritating for anyone that lives north of watford as they can't move house because some silly beggars down south have hoovered up all the available mortgage money to waste on new build flats and other over priced tat.

Around here prices stopped rising in 2006 so I would guess that prices elsewhere will slip back to those levels, stay flat for a while then start picking back up again when everyone has forgotten about it and just gets back on with living. The spring quarter sets the tone for the rest of the year generally. Banks will have to start lending as otherwise they are going to be stuck with all the repos that are floating about.

drbeat

Pobby wrote: »

Yes he`s good at silly posts. Reminds me of Bruno but nowhere near as funny. Hey wait a minute. It could be Bruno with a personality bypass.

Yes it could be...but then again its nice to have someone that heats up the debate. It would be rather boring without them!

geoffky

2006 levels? you are joking arent you.. we are going to see a once in a lifetime event and are well past 2006 levels now where i live upnorth....this is not going to be a walk in the park its going to be brutal horrid and frightening.remember in the eighties when the nightly news had the job lossses listed in the right hand corner announced that day well i am afraid its about to return with nobs on....this is going to be life changing for a lot of people and how much you prepare will dictate how well you come out of it the other side....