Halifax no change 0.0%

meanmachine_2

Seeing as I started threads on the other rising indices, I thought I'd be consistent, albeit late.

Now this one, with its northern bias, does surprise me. Looks like the August rate cut bounce has petered out.

No doubt "bestthingsinlifearefree" and the other estate agents on this board will claim that they are not surprised and it points to big rises in the new year, blah de blah.

I'd suggest that if the North is cooling, like the south has in the last few years, then we could be seeing some sustained falls, on balance, for the next year or so.

On the other side, mortgage approval rises suggest that property is still selling - but at what price?

Woby_Tide

meanmachine wrote:

On the other side, mortgage approval rises suggest that property is still selling - but at what price?

The same price as last month?

meanmachine_2

Doesn't a rise in mortgage approvals lead to a shift in house prices 3 months' hence, rather than feeding into that month's figures?

Anyway Woby, I'm glad at least you replied. Seems there's nothing less likely to stimulate debate than a 0% rise/fall in something. How very boring.

No wonder they indices report a 1.5% "rise" followed by a 1.5% "fall" the very next month. Gains more press attention.

Or am I being cynical?

michaels

I notice the sell and rent crowd have been noticebly quieter of late... :-)

blossom30

Hi, I live in south Glasgow and have noticed a drop in the prices but again we are offers over up here, so maybe the estate agents are trying it on again like put the price in low to get the viewers in then don't accept offers under ****and so it goes on. Changes definitely are afoot.

rozeepozee

meanmachine wrote:

On the other side, mortgage approval rises suggest that property is still selling - but at what price?

When I was in Oz this time last year, mortgage approvals were predominantly as a result of home owners trading with each other, namely remortgages, rather than a reflection of FTBers coming into the market. Are the mortgage approval figures broken down into FTBers and remortgages or all lumped together? The former would be much more meaningful.

wibble68_2

meanmachine wrote:

Doesn't a rise in mortgage approvals lead to a shift in house prices 3 months' hence, rather than feeding into that month's figures?

Anyway Woby, I'm glad at least you replied. Seems there's nothing less likely to stimulate debate than a 0% rise/fall in something. How very boring.

No wonder they indices report a 1.5% "rise" followed by a 1.5% "fall" the very next month. Gains more press attention.

Or am I being cynical?

I believe that the Q3 Land Registry figures are out tomorrow.

This should make interesting reading.

The BBC reported the Halifax data as a year on year rise as opposed to a 0% monthly increase.

One financial expert on Sky News even claimed that we were at the bottom of the cycle.

My conclusion is that nobody knows where the market is going.

But there are a lot of people who are very worried about it going south.

meanmachine_2

Well I honestly don't know where they're going.

Logic and common sense tells me that, without the promise of rises, a £200K house suddenly seems hugely expensive. If I could know that it would be £220K in 3 months' time I wouldn't hesitate.

But that seems highly unlikely.

I can imagine it still being 200K by then, or even £180K after 3 months.

Gah! I should imagine the last crash was exactly the same - people were expecting rises to start kicking in throughout. Or else thinking the bottom had been reached, when it hadn't.

I think I'll use hometrack as my trigger. When that starts reporting 3 rises on the bounce, then I'll buy. How does that sound?

kinesin_2

LR figures are out - before embargo, direct from Land reg site.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/rppr_q3_2005.pdf

Doozergirl

Wow! Not the most unpredictable reading on the whole, we're still positive, but VERY interesting figures on New Build flats. Down nearly 6% Year on Year, the only area of the market on the whole to fall. Surely this is the direct impact of the 'Designer, City Centre Living Apartment' and all the proof potential investors need that this section of the BTL market at least is well and truly flooded?

At least we now have some evidence to show those potential investors we see here on occassion? I don't fancy trying to offload one of those...

Woby_Tide

wibble68 wrote:

My conclusion is that nobody knows where the market is going.

But there are a lot of people who are very worried about it going south.

There's also people worried about it stagnating or continuing to go up I'd imagine as whichever way it goes, it's so unpredictable at the moment that people can't judge easily whether to buy/sell/do nothing.