Arrived: Halifax figures for July!

LittleMissAspie

Why are they saying prices are back to June 06? According to the price list on HPC.co.uk, they're a couple of hundred higher than July 06.

adr0ck

Interesting bit:

House prices in July were 8.8% lower on an annual basis. UK average prices have returned to the level they were at in June 2006.

link for people who want it in acrobat

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp

ginvzt

8.8% using quarterly numbers though. It makes about -11% using Month on Month numbers.
And compared to July 2006 average house price is actually lower.
July 2006 £177,754
July 2008 £177,351

poppy10_2

"House prices are still a third higher than five years ago" :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
What a bunch of jokers.

And yes, prices are actually down 10.9% from this time last year, not 8.8%. Halifax uses quarterly figures to smooth the data.

Crash is going full speed ahead! On these figures, if you bought an average-priced house this time last year, you've lost over £20,000 in capital value, as well as paying out around £12,000 in "dead money" interest payments.

ginvzt

poppy10 wrote: »

"House prices are still a third higher than a year ago" :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
What a bunch of jokers.

They say in 5 years, not 1... Even they are not that optimistic!

poppy10_2

ginvzt wrote: »

They say in 5 years, not 1... Even they are not that optimistic!

Yeah, that's what I meant

Loving the new BBC graph:

SingleSue

That's not a graph, it's a cliff face! :rotfl:

Seriously bad news for those who stepped into the market in the last few years.

neverdespairgirl

Looks as if we don't need to have a whip-round for a new axis - the BBC coughed up for one (-:

Sir_Humphrey

I am still astonished at how fast prices are falling, much faster than was expecting when I decided to hold off my first time buy.

Deciding to wait in early 2006 is looking like the best financial decision of my life.

I had been expecting a 30% nominal drop (40% in London) to the trough. I am beginning to think we may be in for more than that.

If banks restrict their multiples to 3-3.5 time salary, the effect (particularly in non-prime London) will be calamitous for many home owners. A restriction of lending ratios I now think could lead to a return to 3 to 3.5 times average earnings housing. In London in four years that may be as little as 100-140k for an average house (allowing for some wage inflation). Needless to say, that would be an enormous drop.

I would have found the above too bearish a year ago, (bear though I was) but now I am not sure. I am not stating the above as a prediction, but if multiples stay at historically normal levels (3.5x, or 2.5x + 1x) then I struggle to see how the pattern of the last crash can be avoided. The last crash saw prices fall to about 3x earnings (nationally).

The economic effect of that is sufficiently scary for me not to be breaking out the champers, but just be grateful I escaped.

And forget Right-Libertarian fantasies of "inflating out" of the problem. It just ain't gonna happen.

neverdespairgirl

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7546644.stm

a non-PDF link