Does being a pessimist cloud one's vision?

Conrad

On balance I'm quite a pessimist when it comes to the economy (not in other ways).
Can't help noticing, that most people around me are more optimistic when it comes to matters economic.

As an example, some people I know are buying in Portugal, and despite my misgivings it now turns out the fairly large development is all sold, and much of that was new sales agreed this year
The pessimists may well give an auto response to this along the lines of - "Ah, but those aren't real sales I bet". They are real completed sales.

Optimists posses simple clarity of vision and a propensity to trust in the Human endeavour and not be buffeted by short term gloom.

WARNING****
Please can the uber pessimists refrain from thier usual defence, which is to claim they are REALISTS. All Pessimists in all times claim they are realists, but as history has shown, they nearly always have it wrong.

15 years from now, in terms of life outcomes will it be the case that the uber pessimists will have not achieved as much material wealth as those that just got on with the job of life and cast negativity to one side?

carolt

Maybe it's not pessimists v optimists but the cautious v the brave?

As someone with young children, I fall into the 'cautious' camp every time. Putting your own neck on the line is one thing; doing it with young kids is quite another.

The 'brave' or to put it another way, 'reckless' or 'gamblers' camp take the risks but may well turn out to be more foolish in the end. Or not.

Personally, I'm happy to be the tortoise not the hare. We all know how that story ended....

Don't really see it as pessimistic at all.

I do see the economy as a whole going up the spout, but am reasonably optimistic it will recover. Am very optimistic prices will fall, though.

But in someone else's eyes, I'm the 'pessimist' or 'gloom-monger'. Funny things, words.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

As someone with young children, I fall into the 'cautious' camp every time. Putting your own neck on the line is one thing; doing it with young kids is quite another.

I do see the economy as a whole going up the spout, but am reasonably optimistic it will recover. Am very optimistic prices will fall, though.
.

I agree with the above, the rest was also a play on words from yourself.

As you are based in London, I agree with you to be pessimistic with regards house prices in the short term and you will benefit if you buy when prices are lower. Much better for you and your family to hold off and wait now.

I'm not sure what is to happen with the UK economy. Times may get hard, but I too would be confident it will recover, as will house prices

m00m00

no more than being overtly optimistic blinkers people


people should take note of the evidence available to them, and apply it to their own particular circumstances.

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I agree with the above, the rest was also a play on words from yourself.

As you are based in London, I agree with you to be pessimistic with regards house prices in the short term and you will benefit if you buy when prices are lower. Much better for you and your family to hold off and wait now.

I'm not sure what is to happen with the UK economy. Times may get hard, but I too would be confident it will recover, as will house prices

Wasn't a play on words actually. Was deeply felt.

Obviously, you disagree.

Doozergirl

The outcome of cautious vs. brave depends on whether you are an optimist or a pessismist - it's the same thing. If you are inclined to think something won't work then you won't do it.

Does it cloud your vision? Maybe. There was someone here talking about losing everything the other day when the reality was that they weren't going to lose everything. They might lose something. There's a vast difference for me.

Starting back at square one doesn't frighten me. It's all about the journey rather than the destination after all. I'll always rather do it for myself than for someone else.

If someone could sell my in-laws place in Portugal, they'd be grateful!

pr33tz

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. - Sir Winston Churchill

There will many of both right now but much will depend on individual circumstances. I'm an optimist; Things will eventually get better and I'd rather have that 'hope' than to worry about things that may never happen.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Wasn't a play on words actually. Was deeply felt.

Obviously, you disagree.

Well I do disagree that buying property is "reckless" or "gambling", especially if you have done the calculations correctly.

Will you be reckless and gamble when you buy?

I don't see the tortoise or the hare anology either, as it depends when each started the race as you would say

m00m00

the problem is though, plenty of people didn't do their calculations correctly and instead put their faith in a panglossian belief that property will always go up, so getting onto the 'ladder' at any cost was the right thing to do. When for many people it quite clearly wasn't

kennyboy66_2

Read "The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less" by Barry Shwartz.


There are many 'pessimists', who wish to pick the perfect moment to buy a house - an impossible task.
I would describe myself as an optimist but that doesn't mean I would buy a house right now if I was a first time buyer.

However if I was a first time buyer I would be looking to buy sometime in the next 18 months because in the overall scheme of things if I pay x and the price then falls by a further 5% in nominal terms (or more in real terms), it doesn't really matter in the long run.

In 12 months time, there will still be people fretting that they could buy a house slightly cheaper if they waited.

I don't think overall happiness lies down this route.

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Well I do disagree that buying property is "reckless" or "gambling", especially if you have done the calculations correctly.

Will you be reckless and gamble when you buy?

I don't see the tortoise or the hare anology either, as it depends when each started the race as you would say

That's why I also used 'brave' as an alternative adjective; whether you are brave, reckless or a gambler depends on the individual. Some, as m00m00 says, were clearly reckless; you clearly weren't.

As for me - no, with young children I shall only buy when I am absolutely sure it is not a gamble, ie when the long term fixed rate (when we were looking to buy last time, we were looking at 15 year+ fixes) is less than the rent would be. Always cautious.

Quite agree with your reading of the tortoise/hare analogy. I'm comparing myself only to those who started racing at the same time. You may well be out of the race before I'm even in it.