House Prices Up 25% to £274,700 by 2013...

mstar

not sure on that to be honest.

on the demand side, and (i dnt have the exact source i read it from) but i remember reading the age groups of people buying houses is typically 27-42ish, so unless we have a rapid life expectancy reduction of this age group i cannot see how the dying factor mentioned has that much of a factor on house prices.

on the supply side i am not sure i dnt have stats to show how many inherited houses are put straight on the market or sold. i would guess this has little effect to be honest as most people dnt sell assets inherited particularly buildings.

rjgb

mstar wrote: »

you keep mentioning dying? i don't see ur logic statistically we are living longer and the biggest house purchasers are NOT people who are close to dying. statistically the number born/migrating to this country outweights how many are dying.

People have been living longer, and there is a large bubble of people about to reach the top of our population demographic (i.e. become the oldest people in the country). These are the people who were born straight after the war. The baby boom died off pretty quickly after it had started, so there are fewer people in the age group just below the bubble than are in the bubble itself.

Shortly after they reach the top, one of two things will happen:

1) They die, leaving lots of empty properties about the place, or leave them to their heirs to sell.

2) They become old, but suffer from all kinds of illnesses which means they go into care homes.

Either way, many properties will come on the market.

Bear in mind that many elderly folk outlive their other halves, meaning they live in small properties, such as flats and small bungalows. Potentially the size of property first FTBs will be looking for.

As for migration, I expect this will reduce fairly significantly over the next few years. Many Poles are already heading back to Poland.

Finally, the UK is becoming more developed. A sign of very developed countries is that natural growth of the population reduces to the point where population size can decrease naturally.

Overall, I expect there to be a net decline in the population in ten years or so.

mstar

rjgb wrote: »

People have been living longer, and there is a large bubble of people about to reach the top of our population demographic (i.e. become the oldest people in the country). These are the people who were born straight after the war. The baby boom died off pretty quickly after it had started, so there are fewer people in the age group just below the bubble than are in the bubble itself.

Shortly after they reach the top, one of two things will happen:

1) They die, leaving lots of empty properties about the place, or leave them to their heirs to sell.

2) They become old, but suffer from all kinds of illnesses which means they go into care homes.

Either way, many properties will come on the market.

Bear in mind that many elderly folk outlive their other halves, meaning they live in small properties, such as flats and small bungalows. Potentially the size of property first FTBs will be looking for.

As for migration, I expect this will reduce fairly significantly over the next few years. Many Poles are already heading back to Poland.

Finally, the UK is becoming more developed. A sign of very developed countries is that natural growth of the population reduces to the point where population size can decrease naturally.

Overall, I expect there to be a net decline in the population in ten years or so.

i think your post is a little misleading if you think suddenly we will have a flood of propertys from people dying in the next 5-10 years.
Your assuming
1. they die and leave their heirs to sell -which statistically i never seen such a stat.
2. going to care homes doesn't mean there will be a flood of propertys on the market.

i would like to see the stats on "old people" your mentioning who have homes and their heirs sell which suddenly will cause us to have a flood of properties on the market.

i take your point about migrant workers, but i am thinking broader I am not talking about poles but from other poorer coutries where its impossible to go back "home" and work (unlike poland).

so i disagree when all govt experts who have many more stats then we do all predict an increase in population in the next 10 years

neverdespairgirl

mstar wrote: »

on the supply side i am not sure i dnt have stats to show how many inherited houses are put straight on the market or sold. i would guess this has little effect to be honest as most people dnt sell assets inherited particularly buildings.

I would have thought most inherited houses were sold, and the proceeds split between the children.