First time buyers regain footing on the property ladder - NAEA

Paul_N_4

Conrad wrote: »

As a long lived bear I'm now getting a gut feel we may see price increases next Spring and onwards.

I see interest rates as being lower by then, and this coupled with other better news will be sufficient for the masses. In the final anlysis, regardless of the risks, on balance more of us would rather own than be at the behest of a jumped up landlord. All it takes is a small change in the economic landscape and off we go again. I wish it weren't true, but it is.

No its not true, its just your opinion. The fact is you won't have the choice, regardless of interest rates, or people's confidence. What decides whether or not you can afford to buy a home is the bank's willingness to lend you money. That is currently not happening, and unless the banks find some way of generating a few billions of pounds to replace the money they've lost, and some more, its not happening anytime soon.

What you need to keep an eye on is NEW mortgage approvals. We're going to enter a time when YoY new mortgage approvals are going to APPEAR to increase, but it's only because they're comparing current bad month with a bad month 1 year ago. But look at the underlying figures and compare them to typical '06/'07 approval volumes. House prices will not start rising again until these figures start showing convincing rises towards the levels we saw during the boom years.

IveSeenTheLight

PayDay wrote: »

I haven't posted on this thread (until this post). What are you on?

Oops, sorry.
It was Mr Paul N.
I should have went back up the post to verify instead of trying to remember.

Please accept my humble apologies:o

IveSeenTheLight

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I think you are a lot more optimistic than some, but that's all. You certainly don't seem to beleive that prices only ever rise, it's different this time, etc.

I think I would be a lot more pessimistic if my vested interests were in London, South East and South West

If you look at http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/25_07_08Affordability.xls and make up a graph for the house price - earning data, you will see graphically see that these are areas that are way above the UK average, which previously was discussed as being 22% above the long term trend

Some interesting facts on affordability: -

---

North---Y & H---NWest---EMids---WMids---EAng---SWest---SEast---GLond---Wales---Scot---UK
Q1 2008-5.35 ----4.86 ----4.91

---

5.53

---

5.64

---

6.22 ----6.55

---

7.10 ----6.01

---

5.49

---

4.68 --5.6608Q2
Q2 2008 4.84 ----4.50 ----4.71

---

5.06

---

5.52

---

5.90 ----6.19

---

6.50 ----5.63

---

5.47

---

4.38 --5.31
Dropped 0.51 ----0.36

---

0.20

---

0.47

---

0.11

---

0.32 ----0.36

---

0.60 ---0.38

---

0.02

---

0.3

---

0.35


Note that the South East is the worst area for affodability and Scotland the best area for affordability
The rate of drop for me is quite astounding. The South Est dropping 0.6 of the average earnings in one quarter.
A few more quarters like that and the affordability is going to be much more affordable even in the worst area such as the South East

Lotus-eater

Snooze wrote: »

Who are you trying to kid? :rolleyes: You are a bull through and through and I've pulled you up about this before but you spat your dummy out and denied all knowledge. You never post any "bad news" so please give up with this "I have to balance the debate" dross as it's getting incredibly boring. :rolleyes:

You are in bed with Mr. Green Shoots and Mr. B, just admit it. :rolleyes:

Rob

Terrible!
Right up there with the fact that brit, carol and !!!!!! etc never post any good news..........
Personally I'm glad we have both sides, we might get a clear picture of what is happening then, its not going to go down for ever you know.
Personally I had the same fear as Conrad this week, I can't believe people will be so silly, but I've seen it already with people buying round here.

bubblesmoney

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

No, just trying to balance the see saw of good and bad news. There is so much bad news at the moment, it's important to balance the debate. You will also see me posting bad news I think is interesting

I spent no time surfing for good news.
I look at http://news.bbc.co.uk/ daily and they were both in that days topics.

I did also say the following which may proove to discount the figures



There is actually quite a bit of good news out there
Oil price lowering
Swap rates lowering
Mortgage Interest Rates lowering
Banks shares increasing
etc

Of course there are still bad news as well
Retail Sales down
Fuel price rise
Food price rise
Credit Crunch
etc



, but it may start to be a little more balanced

dont bet on the mortgage interest rates lowering for much longer. in most banks/finance institutions i have heard that the mortgage advisors i have heard get some (1w probably) lead time before rates are changed for their packages. even though rates have been going down recently in a couple of banks, in other banks the general banter among staff (mortgage advisors speaking to other staff at their work place) (i have heard) that mortage rates will soon go up and better to fix for 5y or more or for those (fools???:o ) people considering buying (including the likes of me ) or remortgaging then atleast it would be better to get a letter from a bank offering the fixed rate presently available at least that way the rate on the letter would be applicable for 3months and if the rate goes up u can still use that mortgage at the old rate (hopefully) and if it goes down u can always choose another package.

some people buy for various reasons even in a falling market even taking into account negative equity etc. price and loss isnt everrything for somepeople they might have other motivations for buying a house. and lets face it if they are prepared to lose money and be still not in financial problems even if they make a loss when they sell, then some such people might buy in a falling market (even if it has not bottomed out) for other reasons for owning a house. not wise, but people do do unwise things for different motivations.

not all purchases give a profit. buying cars doesnt, still people buy fancy expensive cars, same goes for blowing ur money on other costly fancy things that offer no profit prospects, some people might use a similar logic while buying a house if they can take the hit while selling and want to buy for other reasons. unfortunately for my purse, i am considering falling into this category, dont ask me why , wish i knew for sure:eek:

IveSeenTheLight

bubblesmoney wrote: »

dont bet on the mortgage interest rates lowering for much longer

I dont.
But while they have and people believe they will be rising in the future, it's good to be aware so that people have an opertunity to fix at these lower rates

PayDay

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Oops, sorry.
It was Mr Paul N.
I should have went back up the post to verify instead of trying to remember.

Please accept my humble apologies:o

Apology accepted.

Perhaps now that you have SeenTheLight, you could try turning it on?

IveSeenTheLight

PayDay wrote: »

Apology accepted.

Perhaps now that you have SeenTheLight, you could try turning it on?

:rotfl:
Maybe I shouldn't have apologised giving your response, ah well.

My light is on, I am open to hear all sides of a debate and view any interesting factual statements. Are you?

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

:rotfl:
Maybe I shouldn't have apologised giving your response, ah well.

My light is on, I am open to hear all sides of a debate and view any interesting factual statements. Are you?

No - you are not. You are simply a wind up merchant of limited intelligence amusing yourself by irritating others. Nothing wrong with that, I do it myself, but somehow your flat, dull, repetitive statements completely lacking in humour or originality take boredom to a new level.

I hope I have got the level of abuse about right. Wouldn't want to underdo it.

neverdespairgirl

Nothing I've seen suggests that he is of limited intelligence.