A change in sentiment

brit1234

pickles110564 wrote: »

So that they can go all the way back up again.;)

There is no doubt they will go up again and surpass last years values. However this is going to take years. We are going to have years of falls followed by stagnation, then gentle rises. No doubt in about 12-16 years we will have stupid unsustainable growth caused by people thinking property is an investment and it can only go up.

People waiting for price rises are going to have a very long wait.

Conrad

Resident bulls, we know prices will rise long term.
Thanks for the insight.


The point is what to do now whilst they fall for 2 or 3 years, and whilst they take 8 years to get back to the Spring 07 peak (Autumn was not the peak).

One George Soros said this is a period of wealth destruction. Glad I offed my B2Ls in 06, whilst hoardes of shiny suited investment club robots bought BMV, in'it

Even yesterday I heard of a bunch of mortgage brokers down in E London clubbing together to buy, you guessed it, some BMV new builds.

busydaffodil1

Such is life. Riots? I doubt. The great British public lie down and take it all.
Fuel prices - we accept, other countries hold huge protest marches & strikes.
Immigration - we accept all, allow them to have their own TV programmes (Sharia TV) and build churches. Other countries tell them its their way or the highway.
Council Tax - we moan but do nothing
inflation - we moan but do nothing

Many of the posts on the www are Brits being verbal. We tend to talk the talk but fail to walk the walk.

IveSeenTheLight

m00m00 wrote: »

beware of making long run economic predictions, Keynes had a thing to say about those.

It's basic rconimics that show that house prices will be higher in the future than they are now.
Simple inflation will ensure that house prices are pushed up.
I'm not saying that real term prices will be more expensive but that actual prices are higher.

Do you believe they wont be?

IveSeenTheLight

havethis1 wrote: »

you just seem desperate now.

No one (intelligent) cares what the price is, its the price to wage ratio that is the important thing.

Thats basic rconimics mate

:yawn:
Definately not desperate, not buying, not selling, just trying to keep a balance on the forums instead of it running away down only one thought path

f your interested in wages to house prices (actually wages to mortgages is more significant) you can see some interesting data for both here
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/14_07_08Affordability.xls[EMAIL="lepon@pacific.net.sg"][/EMAIL]

m00m00

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It's basic rconimics that show that house prices will be higher in the future than they are now.
Simple inflation will ensure that house prices are pushed up.
I'm not saying that real term prices will be more expensive but that actual prices are higher.

Do you believe they wont be?

at some point they certainly will be, but the issue is, where that point is.

IveSeenTheLight

m00m00 wrote: »

at some point they certainly will be, but the issue is, where that point is.

Is that the issue?

Most mortgages are taken over a 25 year period (better to pay off earlier though). I've not seen one point in history where the prices were less than they were 25 previously.
Now I'm not saying that its a good time to buy now, certainly may not be in some areas, but if you are buying now, you are securing that mortgage (debt) at that price while inflation should push the price higher as time goes by

m00m00

but if you wait 12 months, you could secure that price at say, 20% less, and be paying much less for the next 25 years.

IveSeenTheLight

m00m00 wrote: »

but if you wait 12 months, you could secure that price at say, 20% less, and be paying much less for the next 25 years.

Fully agree this may happen in your area and it makes sense to take on as less a debt as possible.
I've never subscribed to the UK average is what will happen throughout the UK. Some will not be affected as badly, some will be far worse.
It's important to understand these regional variances and assess the market for yourself
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=898381

This however is a different point from the one that was being made earlier in the thread.

House prices previously went up, then down then up again higher than previously, now down again and they will go up to higher than they are now in the futures. I make no crystal ball predictions when the cycle changes.

As long as there is long term inflation, I do predict thet house prices in the long term will be higher than they are now. I dont know when, but it will happen

neverdespairgirl

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It's important to understand these regional variances and assess the market for yourself
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=898381

While I agree there will be regional variations, I don't think they will be quite as drastic as you think. The credit crunch affects every part of the country, and that will affect all housing markets, I reckon.