Debate House Prices


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RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

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  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    Seems as if the esteemed Mr Woodford expects another banking crisis and a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Interesting times.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    I think that a lot of people are missing the significance of what's going on in the oil market. That is significantly bullish for the rest of the world. It's an effective income increase of $750/yr for Americans alone.

    AEP does increasingly write like he's doing op-ed pieces for HPC.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Interesting part of the article here...



    Oil prices have broken well through that level just hours after the warning was published.

    May I ask why you think falling oil prices are a bad thing? (I use a working assumption that you are not CEO of Shell or the Saudi Finance Minister).
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    May I ask why you think falling oil prices are a bad thing? (I use a working assumption that you are not CEO of Shell or the Saudi Finance Minister).

    I deleted my post as I was mistaken.

    However, as you have quoted it, I'm wondering if I may ask where I made out falling oil prices are a bad thing?

    I just stated that oil had fallen through the price RBS quoted.
  • DiggerUK
    DiggerUK Posts: 4,992 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    ........That is significantly bullish for the rest of the world..........
    Oil is not the only commodity on the planet that is tanking. How economies can be viewed as bullish, in the middle of a plunge in prices of raw materials, and finished goods, needs explaining..._
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    I deleted my post as I was mistaken.

    However, as you have quoted it, I'm wondering if I may ask where I made out falling oil prices are a bad thing?

    I just stated that oil had fallen through the price RBS quoted.

    I took your post to give tacit support for AEP's views. I apologize if that is not the case.

    As I say, I do find it bizarre that people think that falling oil prices are anything other than a good thing. Clearly you are not among those with such peculiar ideas.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
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    edited 11 January 2016 at 10:52PM
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    Generali wrote: »
    I took your post to give tacit support for AEP's views. I apologize if that is not the case.

    As I say, I do find it bizarre that people think that falling oil prices are anything other than a good thing. Clearly you are not among those with such peculiar ideas.

    I can see pro's and con's to both sides of this coin.

    It's great for my pocket in many areas. I bought a couple of new tyres last week and was astonished at the prices. Not sure how much that was to do with the oil price, but I would imagine a large amount of it was.

    However, I can see other sides too. Looks like places, jobs and investment which relies on oil is really suffering now. Theres a lot of investment backed on oil too and those investments can hit us all in one way or another.

    And my post wasn't tacit support. It was a comment on a mere sentence of the article.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    I can see pro's and con's to both sides of this coin.

    It's great for my pocket in many areas. I bought a couple of new tyres last week and was astonished at the prices. Not sure how much that was to do with the oil price, but I would imagine a large amount of it was.

    However, I can see other sides too. Looks like places, jobs and investment which relies on oil is really suffering now. Theres a lot of investment backed on oil too and those investments can hit us all in one way or another.

    And my post wasn't tacit support. It was a comment on a mere sentence of the article.

    Yup, if you're living in Saudi or Aberdeen then this probably doesn't look like such great news.

    The thing that articles like this regularly overlook is that while something like a falling oil price is bad news for a few people, most of us don't hold a huge amount of wealth in oil shares or have a job in the oil industry (or rely for our job on the spending of those working in the oil industry) the news is wholly positive. For someone working in a bar in Greece or as a builder in Portugal this gives your customers more disposable income which is a wholly positive thing.
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    Yup, if you're living in Saudi or Aberdeen then this probably doesn't look like such great news.

    The thing that articles like this regularly overlook is that while something like a falling oil price is bad news for a few people, most of us don't hold a huge amount of wealth in oil shares or have a job in the oil industry (or rely for our job on the spending of those working in the oil industry) the news is wholly positive. For someone working in a bar in Greece or as a builder in Portugal this gives your customers more disposable income which is a wholly positive thing.


    and its not just oil, coal and gas are down too. mostly thanks to a few american companies blasting sand and water into some rocks a km down
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    Yup, if you're living in Saudi or Aberdeen then this probably doesn't look like such great news.

    The thing that articles like this regularly overlook is that while something like a falling oil price is bad news for a few people, most of us don't hold a huge amount of wealth in oil shares or have a job in the oil industry (or rely for our job on the spending of those working in the oil industry) the news is wholly positive. For someone working in a bar in Greece or as a builder in Portugal this gives your customers more disposable income which is a wholly positive thing.

    Only if it doesn't last too long...

    I'm taking the comments of very senior economists on board here when I say they are warning that oil could very soon hit "infection point" for the US. This will see a much grater risk of financial risks to the US economy and, via that, hit consumers in other ways.

    The second point which we should be mindful of is that the lower prices hit the most volitile countries the hardest. Russia, Lybia, Iraq etc. Again, this could heighten tensions.

    In terms of the UK as a whole and the EU? Yer, it's good news for consumer spending power. So long as something else isn't toppled.

    In terms of my pocket - it's great.
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