60% return in 12 months - can it continue.

2

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  • darkidoe
    darkidoe Posts: 1,125 Forumite
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    talexuser wrote: »
    You've managed 60% in 1 year. Lets put in £1000 and assume 60% for 5 years in a row, adding the dividends average 4 times a year. Compounded you would end up with over £16,000. Now just how likely do you think that is and why isn't everybody doing it?

    You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.

    Save 12K in 2020 # 38 £0/£20,000
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    intowhere wrote: »

    Are these people who are proving the tips doing some research or are they just pulling things out of the air for that people like me fall for them?

    Read the research and make you own judgement call. Stick to small sums. Learn from your personal experience. Using this to refine the areas you invest in. Polly Peck was a stock market darling in it's day. Yet folded overnight. Remember people may not be what they purport to be. With investing comes risk.
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
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    darkidoe wrote: »
    You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.

    And how much will you have lost before getting those 10 in a row?
  • darkidoe
    darkidoe Posts: 1,125 Forumite
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    talexuser wrote: »
    And how much will you have lost before getting those 10 in a row?

    Nothing. I am not wasting time or money flipping coins. :D

    Save 12K in 2020 # 38 £0/£20,000
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
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    darkidoe wrote: »
    Nothing.

    So no gains either, and we're all agreed that continuing that performance year after year is highly unlikely.
  • dividendhero
    dividendhero Posts: 2,417 Forumite
    you're 60% gains pa will turn £1,000 into over £12,000,000 in 20 years - you think that's possible?
  • Malthusian
    Malthusian Posts: 10,936 Forumite
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    thegrind wrote: »
    HSBC has today signalled a higher chance of a correction in the markets at the end of the year

    Corrections (falls of 10% or more) happen pretty frequently so that's not the boldest of predictions. Remember the Great Correction of 2015? No? Me neither.
    Could this correction if it happens this year be the start of a recession next year? Who knows

    Other way around is far more likely. Speculators lag reality, not vice versa.
  • fiisch
    fiisch Posts: 510 Forumite
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    dividendhero wrote: »
    you're 60% gains pa will turn £1,000 into over £12,000,000 in 20 years - you think that's possible?

    Please take my money.... :money:
  • darkidoe
    darkidoe Posts: 1,125 Forumite
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    talexuser wrote: »
    So no gains either, and we're all agreed that continuing that performance year after year is highly unlikely.

    Yes highly improbable, virtually impossible but not wholely impossible... Hence I am not into it but people who buy the lottery does or people actively picking stocks do so and out of a few millions, one or two might do well.

    Save 12K in 2020 # 38 £0/£20,000
  • sevenhills
    sevenhills Posts: 5,882 Forumite
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    I have bought shares over the past 20 years, I have never added up the gains and losses, but I believe I am in front ;)

    I have bought Morrisons and Car Phone Warehouse numerous times, sold when they rose 30%-40% then bought again when they declined.
    I have also bought ones like SkyPharma and RBS ect where I lost over 50%
    I find it interesting though, perhaps I should try to work out my gains/losses? But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago ;)
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