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will interest rates go up again this month?
bobby_davro_2
Posts: 71 Forumite
hi
Just a qiuck one, how many people think IR will go again this month?
Reckon another raise will put me off for good looking for a house this year.
Just a qiuck one, how many people think IR will go again this month?
Reckon another raise will put me off for good looking for a house this year.
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Comments
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The minute of last months meeting of the MPC stated the vote was 5-4 in favour of the raise, which was a surprise at the time.
I'd be very surprised to see a raise again knowing how close January's decision was, but I could be wrong.0 -
considering how close to the top of the infation target it is and the fact the news servces are on about i would lay good odds on it in the next 2 month/
i know its just banks etc talking up the market but stuff comming out like house prices are likely to go up by £1000 a month isnt likely to calm them down either since when people spend more when they think they are worth X ammount more due to the house going up in value.
that said i think the effect of the rise will be felt further north where the most dramatic rises have been seen since thats where the wages are lower, theres more manufacturing jobs whick get cut during high interest rates and theres less demand for houseing so it might not even be the last this year.0 -
If it's not this month, quite likely to be next month. BoE have sat on their hands watching even mickey-mouse inflation going up month after month, unfortunately the "great unwashed" have noticed this and are now after a few more quid in wages to catch up.
IMHO the BoE have already lost all credibility - if you take the view that inflation is only 1% over target you may not agree. If you take the view that inflation is 50% over target you may...0 -
If the odds are long enough I might have a small wager on another raise, but I would be very surprised to see a rise in February.
Agree with the credibility issue though.0 -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6333717.stm
Retail sales are the highest in 3 years. For inflation to remain at 3%, it needs to fall about 0.4% in Jan IIRC (due to the Jan sales). Personally, I think there is a good chance of inflation reaching 3.1%, meaning they would look stupid not to hike.
I would say it's odds on with a rate hike, I may be wrong in the timing tho.
The markets have [almost] fully priced in two more rises to 5.75%. As I've said before, inflation is becoming a problem - if people get larger than average pay rises, as it looks like people are, rates will pass 6% easily. Remember the average is around 7-9% (depending on how you measure it).
I'll say it again, anyone taking on debt really needs to work out if they can afford it with higher rates.
P.s. The Bank of America is also anticipating price corrections in the UK.0 -
If your in for the long term it's my belief to use the average as FT buyer suggests. Since i've owned a house the average interest rate is approx 7% so I was more than happy to fix for 10 years at 5% last September.0
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From the above post, I've just worked out that we will still quite comfortably be able to afford our mortgage on 7% (fixed rate up in Apr 2008, so can't fix now).
What are the predictions for the start of next year (assume I can start fixing my mortgage again around Feb 2008)?Pink Sproglettes born 2008 and 2010
Mortgages (End 2017) - £180,235.03
(End 2021) - £131,215.25 DID IT!!!
(End 2022) - Target £116,213.810 -
I reckon 6.25% by next January, given that it's likely to be 5.75% by summer, I think that's quite a conservative prediction.
Don't forget that 7% is the average, that means that for every month that it's below 7%, there needs to be a month where it's over 7%.
"Mrs. Pench, you've won the car contest, would you like a triumph spitfire or 3000 in cash?" He smiled.
Mrs. Pench took the money. "What will you do with it all? Not that it's any of my business," he giggled.
"I think I'll become an alcoholic," said Betty.0 -
Hurumph! Wish I'd listened to bf when he wanted to fix for longer than 2 years! Still, we can afford 6.25% (if we don't bother with the whole kids thing). Gona base my "estimator" on 7% though and pray that when next Feb comes up, it's less than that!
PS Would you fix a mortgage rate at 7% or wait till it goes down again? I'm planning on fixing for 10 years next time, so I know exactly how much we have to pay! If only I did that last year!Pink Sproglettes born 2008 and 2010
Mortgages (End 2017) - £180,235.03
(End 2021) - £131,215.25 DID IT!!!
(End 2022) - Target £116,213.810 -
Always a bit of a gamble - if you'd fixed 10 years ago you wouldn't have any teeth left from all that gnashing...0
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