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Old 17-03-2009, 5:50 PM   #1
MSE Wendy
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Default Premium Bond interest to DROPS from 1.8% to 1% in April & new £25 prize

What this is all about

NS&I has announced that the Premium Bond interest is to drop from 1.8% to 1% from its April prize draw (until at least June), making Premium Bonds an even worse buy. While the interest rate is after tax, someone with average luck is unlikely to earn even that much... (see the full Premium Bonds: Are they worth it guide for why).

April also sees the start of the new £25 prize level meaning more people will win small prizes, and the move to one £1 million pound prize instead of two. The new lower prize level will increase the number of people who win each month.

Until the new prize distribution is announced after the April draw, it is impossible to work out the odds. However you can see the current probaility in the Premium Bond Probability Calculator.

Click reply to discuss the changes

NS&Is full press release is below...

NS&I CHANGES ITS PREMIUM BONDS PRIZE STRUCTURE AND VARIABLE RATES ON SAVINGS PRODUCTS

• One of the two £1 million jackpot prizes to be distributed as a wider mix of tax-free prizes and new £25 Premium Bond prize to be introduced
• Premium Bond prize fund rate reduces to 1% and will be held at this level for at least the April, May and June 2009 prize draws - odds of winning to remain unchanged
• This is the first change made to the prize fund rate since the last reduction implemented on 1 December 2008
• Interest rates on variable rate products changed following decreases in base rate

NS&I today announced that from the April prize draw onwards one of the two monthly Premium Bond jackpot prizes of £1 million will be replaced by a wider mix of prizes in the monthly draws, allowing more people to win but still retaining the chance of winning the £1 million jackpot prize. Similarly, a new £25 Premium Bond prize will be introduced and used alongside the existing prizes (ranging from £50 to £1 million). These changes have been introduced because Premium Bond holders say that maintaining the chances of winning tax-free prizes on a regular basis is particularly important to them.

In addition to these changes, NS&I is reducing the Premium Bond prize fund rate from 1.8% to 1%. This rate will be held for at least the April, May and June 2009 draws even if there are further changes to the base rate. This is the first change NS&I has made to the prize fund rate since the last reduction implemented on 1 December last year - since then the Bank of England base rate has fallen from 3.0% to 0.5%. The revised prize fund rate will come into effect from 1 April 2009.

The current odds of each £1 Premium Bond number winning any prize will remain unchanged at 36,000 to 1, so with average luck an investor with £30,000 in Premium Bonds could win 10 tax-free prizes a year.
NS&I is also reducing the interest rates on its other variable rate savings by up to 0.50%, following movements in the Bank of England base rate. The revised interest rates will come into effect from 18 March 2009 - see table below.

Peter Cornish, Director of Customer Offer, NS&I, said: "Premium Bonds are unique and are hugely popular with our customers. Replacing one of the £1 million jackpot prizes with a wider mix of prizes and introducing the new £25 prize category will help us maintain the frequency of tax-free prizes - something that we know is particularly important to Premium Bond holders.

"We always aim to reward as many of our customers as possible from the prize fund available, together with having the right mix of prizes. We continue to pay out hundreds of thousands of tax-free prizes each month and customers also benefit from a 100% guarantee on their investment because we are backed by HM Treasury.

As always, NS&I will communicate all of these changes to customers via a range of outlets, including press advertisements and NS&I's website, as well as putting an updated Premium Bonds prize draw details leaflets in all Post Offices and updated interest rates leaflets in most branches of WH Smith throughout the UK.



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Last edited by MSE Wendy; 18-03-2009 at 11:32 AM..
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Old 18-03-2009, 2:55 AM   #2
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That makes them more worthwhile probably.
A good change but too late.
I valued them on the 50 and 100 prizes on the assumption that was all I would probably win. In fact I never won a 100 - but often got multiple 50's in a month.
With the reduction of the number of prizes it became less likely to get any return so I cashed most of them in. Now I might reconsider when I do some calculations but I doubt it.
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Old 18-03-2009, 4:59 AM   #3
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This is bad news, but not too unexpected considering the 1% interest rates on many of the existing NS&I savings products.

Waiting for the fine details, but i'm guessing that the frequency of the £25 prize would be quite similar to the frequency of the current £50 prize, considering the rate drop from 1.8% to 1%.

I was tempted to dabble, but so long as savings accounts offer much higher returns than the average expected return from these, no thanks... these are only for the lucky
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Old 18-03-2009, 7:26 AM   #4
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The new £25 prize it plain stupid.

The extra administration costs ( postage, stationary etc ) will eat even further into the prize fund.

As it is NS&I seem incapable of sorting prize wins by holder number which means that last month my partner and I received 8 envelopes from them ! Had they used their brains this could have been just 2 envelopes saving the cost of 6 lots of postage plus stationary.

I've pointed this out to them but, since it isn't their own money they are wasting, I doubt that anything will ever be done about it. Just a typical public body with more moeny than sense I fear.
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Old 18-03-2009, 8:04 AM   #5
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As its all done by computers it may be cheaper than having a couple of staff looking at the winners and putting into same envelope. I've only ever had the £50 would love to have more!
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Old 18-03-2009, 9:11 AM   #6
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Why send out envelopes at all?, this IS the 21st century!
They should pay prizes directly into my bank account and send an Email congratulating me on winning.
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Old 18-03-2009, 9:12 AM   #7
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Default Why still two £2million prizes

It's crazy! There are hardly any major prizes, a new £25 prize coming in, yet still these two top prizes remain unchanged.

Break one of them down to £1000, and there will be a thousand more winners every month. At least until we get a slightly better deal.
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Old 18-03-2009, 9:52 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanwsg View Post
Why send out envelopes at all?, this IS the 21st century!
They should pay prizes directly into my bank account and send an Email congratulating me on winning.

I did read that they are planning (Very soon) to link your premium bonds with a Bank Sort and account number for winnings to be paid via BACS.
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Old 18-03-2009, 9:56 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon927 View Post
It's crazy! There are hardly any major prizes, a new £25 prize coming in, yet still these two top prizes remain unchanged.

Break one of them down to £1000, and there will be a thousand more winners every month. At least until we get a slightly better deal.
They are getting rid of one of the 1 million prizes to make into smaller prizes.
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Old 18-03-2009, 9:56 AM   #10
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I now reinvest my winnings and so my envelope contains an actual bond each time. Having just checked my last years winnings, I have won a prize for 10 out of the last 12 months, based on a large but not the maximum investment, and my rate of return is just over 3% tax free. We need the tax free shelter, so cannot really compare this with ordinary savings accounts. I am more than happy with that although I know this may well go down.

I had the bulk of my savings with Intelligent Finance, which for many years provided reasonable interest rates that meant I didn't need to shop around. On checking recently, my ISA rate was a miserly 1.1% and my savings account a paltry 0.9%. So when faced with figures like this, the premium bonds seem like a no brainer with the tantalising hope of a big win always there!
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Old 18-03-2009, 10:14 AM   #11
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Unless you have a lot of money in Premium Bonds, it's just a way of keeping money safe (?) instead of banking it. Any win is a bonus. With interest rates being so low and the bad banking publicity probably more people willinvest in them.



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Old 18-03-2009, 10:16 AM   #12
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Default Premium bonds and E.R.N.I.E.

When I was doing my electrical training in the ROYAL NAVY I was taught that no electrical component is without bias. It's physically impossible to produce something that is totally without some kind of flaw.
I have £200.00 worth of Premium Bonds. I've had these for, probably, 35 years. I have had winnings of a couple of £50.00's.
What I can't understand is how the odds that are quoted are calculated. The last time I looked it was something like 25,000 to 1 for a single bond. Thus with £200 worth I could win at odds of 1 in 125.
My point is, is ERNIE actually that random given it is an electrical circuit with bias's? What actually are the odds of me winning with my £200 worth?
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Old 18-03-2009, 10:32 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by popeye View Post
My point is, is ERNIE actually that random given it is an electrical circuit with bias's? What actually are the odds of me winning with my £200 worth?
ERNIE 4 uses Johnson–Nyquist noise (thermal noise), which is white. It's quite a well studied method for generating "true" random numbers (see here).
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Old 18-03-2009, 10:39 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by popeye View Post
My point is, is ERNIE actually that random given it is an electrical circuit with bias's? What actually are the odds of me winning with my £200 worth?
According to wikipedia:
ERNIE's output is independently tested each month by an independent actuary appointed by the government and the draw is only valid if the output passes tests that indicate it is statistically random.

So it's as random as the actuary is independent or wikipedia is accurate
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Old 18-03-2009, 1:44 PM   #15
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Suggestions please - I have £20k in premium bonds left by a relative who liked a bit of a flutter - should I move the money & where to??!!! (Cash ISA allowance is full for 08/09 and will be filled for 09/10)
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Old 18-03-2009, 2:17 PM   #16
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This still beats the lottery, you get to gamble and get your original stake back.
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Old 18-03-2009, 2:28 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scotinlondon View Post
Suggestions please - I have £20k in premium bonds left by a relative who liked a bit of a flutter - should I move the money & where to??!!! (Cash ISA allowance is full for 08/09 and will be filled for 09/10)
You have to move the money anyway, you can't keep them in someone else's name. I personally am getting a far better return on PB's than any bank can offer, I hold the max, and have 6 months to March, been averaging 4.5% interest - I'm sticking.
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Old 18-03-2009, 3:20 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by popeye View Post
When I was doing my electrical training in the ROYAL NAVY I was taught that no electrical component is without bias. It's physically impossible to produce something that is totally without some kind of flaw.
I have £200.00 worth of Premium Bonds. I've had these for, probably, 35 years. I have had winnings of a couple of £50.00's.
What I can't understand is how the odds that are quoted are calculated. The last time I looked it was something like 25,000 to 1 for a single bond. Thus with £200 worth I could win at odds of 1 in 125.
My point is, is ERNIE actually that random given it is an electrical circuit with bias's? What actually are the odds of me winning with my £200 worth?
By my calculation at 1 in 125 per draw you would have a 50% chance of winning at least once in 86 draws = just over 8 years. 2 wins in 35 years is probably a bit low.
Wining in 18 years (216 draws) is 82% chance.

The chance at the moment I think is 1 in 36000.

Last edited by nrsql; 18-03-2009 at 3:24 PM..
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Old 18-03-2009, 3:34 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0rchidea View Post
You have to move the money anyway, you can't keep them in someone else's name. I personally am getting a far better return on PB's than any bank can offer, I hold the max, and have 6 months to March, been averaging 4.5% interest - I'm sticking.

Well, you must be having above average luck... I'd cut and run as it's unlikely to last. I hold the max too and my 6 month return has been averaging 1.15%.
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Old 18-03-2009, 4:24 PM   #20
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the change has come at a strange time for me as we usually at all costs leave the onds where they are, we have 10k and usually win a few £50s a year but we were thinking of changing the car and will need about 4k. we were going to get finance and pay it back in august as we have an insurance bond due. It now makes our decision easier, we will draw the money out of the bonds and put it back in august. If its fate that we win the big one we will come up with the remained
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