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Ooops, there go prices in Scotland, too....
Comments
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however as an English teacher, I do feel the need to point out the use of the present simple for future events is standard in English (eg my train leaves at 8pm this evening - this clearly refers to the future, not the present) - it does not imply that prices are falling now, and even a cursory glance at the article would have made it clear that was not what it referred to.
I'm not an English Teacher, nor do I think I am very good at english, however...
With your title of "Oops, there go prices in Sctland too," it does infer that prices are already falling.
To use your example, "Oops, there goes my train at 8pm this evening" certainly does not infer future events but one that is actually happening now or in fact the past. Now I know that there is also a reference to the future with your cunningly added "this evening" words, however these are not in your title.
Now please, lets not let this debate decade into a spelling / grammer argument.
Getting back to topic, I must apologise. Generally in Scotland, prices have dropped as a whole.
Data taken from Nationwide shows
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q1_2008.pdf
Scotland-0.1%
Wales -1.8%
Northern Ireland -10%
London -1.5%
England -1.6%
So factually, Scotland has shown the most stable house prices in the last quarter but it is dropping
Scotland is still factually a very cheap place to buy a property.
I'm guessing there will be a small drop, probably more like a period of stagnation in Scotland, although of course, different areas in Scotland like the UK will be affected differently
P.S. I am not a bull. I have regularly said that prices may drop / correct but more likely to stagnate, especially in Scotland where I have as you would say a vested interest. I just don't buy into there will be a crash. You can quote me as believing I think prices will drop between 0 - 15% in the next couple of years. I do also think after the correction that prices will rise again and in time increase past their current levels (you know this will be true carolt, go on admit it).
Now does that make me a bull or a bear? I think a little of both or neither. Probably a fence sitter or realist:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Sorry, the English teacher in me wants to quibble with the grammar, but I will let it be...
Thanks for addressing the points.
Wow- 0-15% drop gives you a pretty big margin for error! There's a huge difference between the two, obviously.
Yes, of course I think prices in Scotland and in the rest of the UK will rise eventually - it's just a question of how long that eventuality takes... It depends on how fierce inflation is (wage inflation being the most relevant here) and how long the credit crunch lasts. Both of those are variables I wouldn't like to call. I wouldn't like to promise that we couldn't follow Japan, where prices are still lower 25 years later, or this country back in the 'old days' when house prices stayed static, more or less, for decades.
People who bought a few years ago will probably be alright in the event of a downturn, (not definitely, particularly if house prices bring on recession which in turn brings on unemployment, or if inflation forces up interest rates making monthly payments unaffordable). Cheaper prices would make it easier for them to trade up, however.
But 3 groups will be especially hard hit: people who bought very recently at high LTV's, current FTB's and people needing to sell to meet debt including highly leveraged BTLetters.
Interesting hearing that Scottish prices went down recently - albeit by 0.1%!
More info from the coal face useful to all those making decisions at the moment, I'm sure..... any more contributions?0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »
P.S. I am not a bull. I have regularly said that prices may drop / correct but more likely to stagnate, especially in Scotland where I have as you would say a vested interest. I just don't buy into there will be a crash. You can quote me as believing I think prices will drop between 0 - 15% in the next couple of years.
Darn, I think I've worked out why your my favourite bull.0 -
Originally Posted by IveSeenTheLight
P.S. I am not a bull. I have regularly said that prices may drop / correct but more likely to stagnate, especially in Scotland where I have as you would say a vested interest. I just don't buy into there will be a crash. You can quote me as believing I think prices will drop between 0 - 15% in the next couple of years.
Darn, I think I've worked out why your my favourite bull.
Just thought I would put in the full paragraph instead of the edited oneOriginally Posted by IveSeenTheLight
P.S. I am not a bull. I have regularly said that prices may drop / correct but more likely to stagnate, especially in Scotland where I have as you would say a vested interest. I just don't buy into there will be a crash. You can quote me as believing I think prices will drop between 0 - 15% in the next couple of years. I do also think after the correction that prices will rise again and in time increase past their current levels (you know this will be true carolt, go on admit it).
On your other points....But 3 groups will be especially hard hit: people who bought very recently at high LTV's, current FTB's and people needing to sell to meet debt including highly leveraged BTLetters.
People who bought recently ay hight LTV - ok, they may go into a bit of negative equity, but this would only affect them if they need to move. If not then as it is recent they are likely to have a good interest rate and as long as they can afford the monthly payments, does it really hit them hard? You've already agreed you think that prices will eventually rise
Current FTB's - I'm assuming you mean those who have just bought then presumably they are in the category above. If they have not bought yet then they would benefit from prices dropping IF of course they can get a mortgage with the new credit limitations imposed
People needing to sell to meet debt or highly leveraged BTLers - Again this is two groups. The people needing to sell possibly will be affected and unfortunately it could be as a result of their decision on whether they could afford or in fact as you state as a result of increasing debts. the fact they need to sell to release any equity built up to facilitate those debt, they should have been glad of the HPI in the first place.
As for BTLers, house price drops / correction will not affect LL's who are in the business of renting the property for the long term. It might affect people who have started BTL's with a business mode that relies on HPI, but I do not think there is as much as is portrayed on here.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
I have a neighbour who owns an EA business in Glasgow (and the west of Scotland)
He looks for a minimum of 35% over the asking price.
He told me last week that he has had to accept a few round the 30% mark but he still gets people who go nearer 40%.
Personally I think this is scandalous and to be honest he does tend to go for the more upmarket properties, but only if they are really worth his while.
He turned down the chance to market a £1million pound place as it needed too much work done on it and the thought he wouldn't make more than 15%.
I hope I never have to move!
OMG! 30% over the asking !
Suppose that's it then, wer'e doomed, end of post.0 -
30% sounds alot but if that type of property is in short supply its not uncommon. I've heard of alot going 40% over the ask in the last 18 months and these were FTB type properties not the upmarket ones. I have noticed round here that its the more upmarket properties that are still selling, not very many of them (hence why they are selling I presume) and not going to a closing date but selling nevertheless.
On the subject of price increases/drops I have a prediction for my own place! It's doubled in value + 20% (based on sales prices for identical properties) in 10 years... now I think it will drop 10% in the near future ie within 6 months. Then the next 10% in the following 6 - 12 months.
I'm not able to look any further into the future than 2 years due to my crystal ball being a bit cloudy but personally I can hang on in there and wait for things to stabilise and then hopefully a move upwards will be less draining on the purse.
Just wanted to post the prediction so I can look back and hopefully :rotfl::rotfl:at a later date!0 -
I got a mortgage valuation done on a house last week. In the surveyors report it said that because of the bouyant market in this area, it may be necessary to put in a higher offer than the valuation. I can't remember the exact wording, but that was the gist of it. It said it was bouyant. The surveyor is independant from the EA. Then I watch the news and I come on here and read everything, and it scares me!0
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I got a mortgage valuation done on a house last week. In the surveyors report it said that because of the bouyant market in this area, it may be necessary to put in a higher offer than the valuation. I can't remember the exact wording, but that was the gist of it. It said it was bouyant. The surveyor is independant from the EA. Then I watch the news and I come on here and read everything, and it scares me!
Be careful of surveyors valuations! 1994 a Surveyor valued a property for me in Bridge Of Weir at £230k, it needed everything, I asked him what he reckoned it would be worth once the works were carried out, he said £250k. I walked away, around two months later it was re-advertised at O/O £199k, I purchased at £208k. I spent £60k on it, over 4 years! the surveyor was a NUTTER.
Prices where I'm now have dropped around 5%, Rents have increased.0
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