MSE News: Energy prices: analysts predict the year ahead

but didn't they say last week that they were very likely to rise.....ok....I'm confused now.....

I'm not usually a betting man, but I'd could be pursuaded to put my money on Scott Byrom, from price comparison site Moneysupermarket.com prediction:

Any bookies willing to accept the bet that this "expert"'s prediction will come true?

"It's the million dollar question. The way the market is, anything can happen so they could go up or down, or stay stable.

I think that one just about covers all bases :rolleyes:

Some simple facts: Wholesale energy costs (the prices suppliers pay for their energy) are still higher than this time last year, and this time two years ago. Due to hedging (fixing prices in advanced to protect agianst price volatility) Suppliers are still paying for energy at higher rates than currently available. While wholesale energy costs increased by 97% consumer prices increased by 30%

The profits some supplier's are making are due to cost savings, increases in efficiencies and reduction in overheads, more so than they are on energy pricing.

Consider also the obligations suppliers currently have: Social Tarriffs, Carbon Emission Reduction Targets, Renewable Energy Development, Smart Metering, Smart Grids (by 2050 i think), replacing power stations that have or are nearing end of their life cycle to name a few, very few of which will reiceve any government funding. Not to forget the obligations they have for their stakeholders.

OFGem recently published a report where current market conditions, economic climate and government requirements. four scenarios for meeting these targets were presented the most optimistic required a 15% increase in consumer price and the most pessamistic a 60% increase.

I would imagine if you could think of a way for suppliers to meet all these obligations, keep britian lit and not increase costs, that the supplier's would be very interested in speaking with you.

Relying on the Media isn't the best possible choice as they're not excactly impartial are they?

Your've got a night graph there shame it mentioned nothing about hedging which is the important bit. (as the prices supplier's pay for energy are fixed based on wholesale costs not directly linked to. There's an element of forecasting when it comes to hedging. I.e. what is likely to happen to costs and how that affects what prices will be fixed at and for what term).

You've managed to point out brilliantly that hindsight is 20:20, amazing what choices could have been made if we had the infomation we have now at that time. Yes given this infoamtion different choices could have been made, but as that infomation didn't exsist yet, well i'll leave that to you.

As a consumer you didn't feel the full brunt of the increases, but you want the full effect of the decreases? As a Consumer you've had far greater price stability than your supplier. I'm assuming you wouldn't be too happy if your prices fluctuated on a daily basis as do the wholesale prices?

On the topic of prices the difference between the cheapest and most expensive supplier is less than 5% compared to disparity of at least 20% several years ago. Some of these suppliers as you have pointed out haven't reduced prices recently where some have - this only goes to show how successful some suppliers were in the hedging strateriges to further stabalise consumper prices.

No comment on the other factors I mentioned? Stakeholders, obligatory requirements? It's important to discuss all the important infomation not just one side of the arguement.

That's a very fair point! Head on over to the MSforumns and you can take a look at some "history" from me. I happen to be an energy consultant and as you should be able to discern from some of the topics there I don't generally hold too many blows when it comes to supplier failures. (and consumer failures also).

As for sources I really should make more than a mental note of the information I'm reading. Sadly I tend to read something and store it away for future use, and generally speaking when that time come's while i've recalled the infomation itself - the source is sometimes lacking.

(And as soon as I can figure out how to flesh out my profile I will... its just a little difficult to navigate around this forumn so much going on!)