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To sell soon and then dripfeed back in?
Comments
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I'm in a similar position to some of the posters on this thread as to where to go now with a handsome paper profit having come into the markets in UTs/OEICs in Mid March and invested frightenely large amounts of my total cash assets with a 3-5 year initial plan to take profits and go back into cash as I move into my mid sixties with my OH retiring about then. Perhaps it was just beginners luck that I started in Mid March but I did sense from closely following the performance of my company Standard Life AVCs in the Pension One Stock Market Fund, listening to the financial press and knowing that the performance of my employer( a leading international chemical company) was beginning to stabilise made me realise that there was an opportunity but, as always, with a risk.
I have subsequently seen many people advise caution over the rises and predicting a further meltdown in April,May,June, July,August and the biggest of them all in September. Apart from a bit of a pull back in China/Asia recently there is no signs of this happening. This has made me think and postulate that the recent "meltdown" was actually the double dip phase of the recession that started the late nineties. Does this argument have any legs?Awaiting a new sig0 -
Yes, many people foresaw it but no one knew when, and what would be the trigger.On the contrary, many people saw both things. But when they mentioned it, noone took any notice because they didnt want to accept the inevitable.
I guarantee you Gold will be $10000 Oz one day; haven't got a clue when but, more than likely after I've shuffled off this mortal coil.Personal Responsibility - Sad but True
Sometimes.... I am like a dog with a bone0 -
Yes, many people foresaw it but no one knew when, and what would be the trigger.
I guarantee you Gold will be $10000 Oz one day; haven't got a clue when but, more than likely after I've shuffled off this mortal coil.
That argument is a bit assinine. After Lehmann Bros collapsed the market didnt immediately drop 46%. In the week or so after, markets only fell 5-10% and were wildly volatile with the VIX at record highs and the Dow up 500 one day, down 500 the next.
It wouldn't have taken a huge amount of foresight to work out that the crisis was serious and to get out of the market at that point, consolidate losses at a low level and wait for the slump to deepen before getting back in.
It's a different world today. Cash is dead, and given QE, inflation is likely to rise. Corporate earnings are starting to look good (based on revenues recently and cost cuts). And VIX is quiet. Do the maths.
There will be dips, for sure, but no 40-50% crash.0 -
Not sure what 'assinine' means but if your talking about 'asinine' then thats a bit harsh, I'm hurt. :rolleyes:That argument is a bit assinine.
Sorry but, haven't you just backed up my argument, i.e. yes people understood the dynamics and could see it hapenning but no one really understood how, when, over what period, etc, etc. - they didn't know when to get out, which is the crux of everything.After Lehmann Bros collapsed the market didnt immediately drop 46%. In the week or so after, markets only fell 5-10% and were wildly volatile with the VIX at record highs and the Dow up 500 one day, down 500 the next.
It wouldn't have taken a huge amount of foresight to work out that the crisis was serious and to get out of the market at that point, consolidate losses at a low level and wait for the slump to deepen before getting back in.
Yep, it always is.It's a different world today.
Yes, I agree over the longer term. We are not seeing it today (in any great strength - specific items may but not wholesale), unlikely to see it next month or the month after.Cash is dead, and given QE, inflation is likely to rise.
I don't dissagree but I am wary of the fundamentals backing this up and so I feel there are likely to be bumps in the road which should be taken advantage of.Corporate earnings are starting to look good (based on revenues recently and cost cuts). And VIX is quiet. Do the maths.
No one's said there will be but, as mentioned I beleive there are good arguments for pull-backs of over 10%; these should be taken advantage of. My investments have reached a point which I am very happy with, I want to lock in my gains (absolutely never ever a bad thing), and will leave 50% invested to continue to ride if thats what happens. If there's a pull-back then I will take advantage and jump back in (when I am confortable with it).There will be dips, for sure, but no 40-50% crash.
As I've mentioned before over the long term I'm not sure investments will 'just grow', I believe they will rise and fall in a trading range; hense go to cash, re-invest, etc, etc.Personal Responsibility - Sad but True
Sometimes.... I am like a dog with a bone0 -
Are you planning to take it out then? Or not at all?
I will leave it where it is. It was a cash ISA and at the time I was so irritated by the poor cash rates that I decided to transfer it to the stock market. I did some research on Trustnet and decided to split the cash into three funds. In the past I have made some losses but overall have done well. When I looked a the details before I posted I was rather surprised that these funds had done so well.0 -
Jake'sGran wrote: »I will leave it where it is. It was a cash ISA and at the time I was so irritated by the poor cash rates that I decided to transfer it to the stock market. I did some research on Trustnet and decided to split the cash into three funds. In the past I have made some losses but overall have done well. When I looked a the details before I posted I was rather surprised that these funds had done so well.
Hm ok. Do you think there will be a dip in Jan? If so, why are you not going to withdraw then drip feed it back in over the followin months into the same fund?0 -
It's just the way I do things. I have had some of my investments for 20 years or more like Fidelity Spec Sits which went down like all the others but is coming backup again now. I don't know what will happen in Jan.0
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The other thing to bear is mind is whether your funds are invested in an ISA wrapper. If they are and you withdraw some of the money, obviously it can't be replaced. I suppose you could liquidate some of your holdings into cash within an ISA for a period if you're worried about a possible market fall but I believe that cash holdings, even in an ISA may be subject to tax? Perhaps somebody can confirm whether this is correct or not.0
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My ISA is up about £1350 but unless I'm missing something, being as I could only either sell into my ISA or transfer to other fund within the ISA, if I sold units I wouldn't be allowed to dripfeed it back into the market because there are minimum investments per fund of about £500 - £1000.
As I have about 10 funds, the only thing I could do would be to either hold it all in cash and then put it back into one or two funds, or try to reattribute the investments by transferring small amounts into each holding.
Or am I wrong? Will HL allow you to set up a regular investment from money that's already in your ISA?You've never seen me, but I've been here all along - watching and learning...:cool:0
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