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Debate House Prices
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House prices were 38% over-valued
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The turnip reference I am fairly sure is based on Baldrich and his investment plan (a turnip in the country). But I didn't consciously think it at the time I typed.chewmylegoff wrote: »i thought the picture in the opening post was of graham taylor, and this comment confused me even more. i suppose i should read properly, rather than quickly look at the pictures and read every 20th word.
Re: Brit and Cleaver. I too agree with most of the sentiment of the post. Except the line about bubble economics. Where I have a feeling economics is just a series of bubbles, one after the other.0 -
Re: Brit and Cleaver. I too agree with most of the sentiment of the post. Except the line about bubble economics. Where I have a feeling economics is just a series of bubbles, one after the other.
I thought the same. I just don't agree that house prices sit nicely in line with wages. Sure, they'll hover around that area for a while and 'cut through' the 3.5x earnings line every now and again as they boom and bust. But whether they fall more now or not, there will be a housing boom again over the next 15 or 20 years. Why wouldn't there be?0 -
Plucking out a sensationalist article every now and then wont help make house prices crash unfortunately.
As for who is saying prices will go up/down, it's quite mix. people have been switching between being bears and bulls constantly over the last year.
At what point do we turn around and accept that there isnt going to be an epic crash as 'hoped' by some?0 -
At what point do we turn around and accept that there isnt going to be an epic crash as 'hoped' by some?
Dunno. But with unemployment at the highest for ten years, banks still not really lending, interest rates at the lowest level since the vikings were pillaging, houses still pretty damn expensive and those dull men at the bank of England still saying that this is the most horrible time since the last most horrible time, it'd be a very confident (and possibly a very stupid) person to say that further house price falls can't happen.
Basically, I don't think we'll see 50% falls or the like either. But that's just a vague hunch, rather than a strong belief.0 -
The Following User Says Thank You to Cleaver For This Useful Post: Show me >>
rewired (Today)
Blimey, I've been thanked by rewired. Does that make me a bear?0 -
Top post Brit. I'm still hopeful of a further 10% fall, but I think it will be over a much more protracted period than we've seen thus far."I can hear you whisperin', children, so I know you're down there. I can feel myself gettin' awful mad. I'm out of patience, children. I'm coming to find you now." - Harry Powell, Night of the Hunter, 1955.0
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Give us the 1st 3 figures of you postcode say TW8 and we will use property bee to check your statement.
I'm sure there have been drops, mortgage lending is national, not restricted to certain areas.
just taken a look at TW8 and it's not dropped a huge amount Brit...
property is still at November 2006 prices in your area which is no where remotely near your predicted 50% drops by the way.
can you explain if property was 38% overpriced and they're also going to drop further, why house prices haven't dropped to the September 2004 house price level like it has for England & Wales?0 -
Just because you keep repeating something does not make it right. I am agnostic on where house prices are going next but I reject any argument based on average income.
Key is affordability (use long term interest rates as a proxy for this), income elasticity of demand (the share of income people are willing to spend on housing increases as incomes rise) and expectations (if the best prediction is for prices to fall buyers will delay even if prices are low and vice-versa)
i wouldn't dismiss average income but what Brit and his sort don't understand or want to look at is the cost of buying a house factoring in interest rates against average salary.
his argument holds very little value when factoring the cost of buying a house not just the average house price.0 -
It's OK Captain, although we've hit an iceberg we're not actually sinking. In fact some parts of boat are now higher than they were originally. So if you take an average across the ship we're probably OK.0
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