This could be a mistake!

RenovationMan · 9 May 2012 at 9:51AM

My prediction is that if we continue so see house price falls over the next 3 years, then we'll also have had 3 more years of stagnation in the economy. If this is the case then we won't have any inflation and so BoE rates will remain unchanged for a further 3 years.

This is excellent news as far as my house renovations and mortgage overpayments are concerned. I'm hoping GD is correct in his prediction.

the_flying_pig · 9 May 2012 at 10:08AM

LR is pretty much a lagging indicator. a person who agrees a house purchase in May 2012 likely won't exchange/complete until late in the summer, and [AFAIK] the sale won't show up in the LR data until a little bit later than that.

So, given how unsuited current market conditions [low wage increases, {small} rate rises, government cuts programme], are to HPI [and see the negative & deteriorating RICS HP balance] I find it hard to believe that this summer and autumn's LR figures will have any inflation in them. Falls seem much more likely.

Because of this I view it almost as a given that the rest of this year will see the index remaining in the £155k-£160k range. Whether we'll be at the top or bottom end I can't say.

I wouldn't really care to predict further than that.

N1AK · 9 May 2012 at 10:31AM

Interesting prediction Graham and kudos for sharing it. I wouldn't be shocked to find out you were right. Personally I don't think we'll see a significant nominal decrease in 3 years. We're mid-term on the coalition and in a rough patch for them which emphasises the financial woes; they'll have plans to improve the outlook prior to the next election and I don't think we'l see a significant worsening of the economy in that time-frame. If I had to guess then we'll see house prices (nominal) around the same as they currently are; they may well drop in the next 12 months and drop in London over the 3 year window.

Graham_Devon · 9 May 2012 at 10:44AM

Interestingly, it's just been forecast that over the next 3 years, house prices will rise 8% nationally and by 22% in London.

Although residential property values will fall marginally in 2012, house prices will start to rise again next year and could increase by as much as 8% over the next three years, according to the latest CBRE house price forecast.

Prime central London will continue to outperform the wider housing market with values increasing by 6% in 2012 and by a total of 22% over the next three years.

‘Despite the market being characterised by monthly fluctuations, the longer term outlook for the housing market is fairly static. We don’t expect it to pick up until the economy fundamentally improves,’ said Jennet Siebrits, head of residential research, CBRE.

‘Low interest rates are continuing to stave off repossessions and forced sales, but a substantial proportion of would be buyers remain unable to move. Ultimately, bank lending still needs to loosen further to spur on housing market activity,’ Siebrits added.

22% in London adds nearly 80k to the average property price, taking it closer to half a million.

chucky · 9 May 2012 at 11:09AM

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Interestingly, it's just been forecast that over the next 3 years, house prices will rise 8% nationally and by 22% in London.

22% in London adds nearly 80k to the average property price, taking it closer to half a million.

Can't see 22% happening in London but can see nominal rises happening but not 22% or even over 10%. Anything can happen.

chewmylegoff · 9 May 2012 at 2:52PM

DervProf wrote: »

Be careful there. I am no longer as clued up on confectionery as I was, but aren't orange KitKats a limited edition ? Even if they are not, it sounds like orange KitKats might not be available in three years time. I'd have a second choice just in case. Maybe a Mars Bar or a Snickers. I'd also ask Graham is he wants a Twix, I doubt he'd refuse, but maybe he'd prefer a Lion Bar or a Double Decker. :money:

You're speaking to an expert here.

The orange chunky kitkat was a limited edition which lost a competition pitted against other different limited edition chunky kitkats earlier this year. I mourned their loss. When the limited edition period ended, I bought 3 x 24 boxes and put them in my fridge. I finished the last one last night.

The orange kitkat is not a limited edition and is available both in 2 finger and 4 finger varieties. The 2 finger ones can only be purchased in a multipack but I assume part of graham's plan is to keep the rest of the multipack to eat as comfort food to console himself for losing this very important internet prediction contest.

Please let me know if you require any further information on this subject.

RenovationMan · 9 May 2012 at 4:03PM

chewmylegoff wrote: »

You're speaking to an expert here.

The orange chunky kitkat was a limited edition which lost a competition pitted against other different limited edition chunky kitkats earlier this year. I mourned their loss. When the limited edition period ended, I bought 3 x 24 boxes and put them in my fridge. I finished the last one last night.

The orange kitkat is not a limited edition and is available both in 2 finger and 4 finger varieties. The 2 finger ones can only be purchased in a multipack but I assume part of graham's plan is to keep the rest of the multipack to eat as comfort food to console himself for losing this very important internet prediction contest.

Please let me know if you require any further information on this subject.

Which limited edition chunky kitkat variation won the contest?

The-Joker · 11 May 2012 at 1:52PM

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But I'm gonna call it.

Land reg, house prices, 135k or under within 3 years.

I'm not 100% convinced of this, many things could change, but who is ever 100% convinced?

Just really can't see any real upside at the moment. The past couple of years has had me questioning things and wondering if the "crash" is all we would get. But I'm feeling confident again. The biggest concern on this one that I have, is that London just keeps increasing and pulling the average up. That not only makes my prediction wrong, but also makes the average house price worthless.

Feel free to have a field day on this thread and bookmark it etc for the future. You'll care much more than I whether I'm wrong or not!

I always said a 50% crash from top to bottom. Depending on how much the currency supply gets abused in the next 3 years then £135K would constitute around 50% real term crash.

wotsthat · 11 May 2012 at 3:01PM

The-Joker wrote: »

I always said a 50% crash from top to bottom. Depending on how much the currency supply gets abused in the next 3 years then £135K would constitute around 50% real term crash.

This sockie incarnation might have always said 50% top to bottom in real terms but if you talk to your puppet master he'll be able to tell you that he reverted to real terms only after the 50% nominal fall was blown out of the water.

To be honest with all the currency manipulation going on I've started measuring my house value in silver rather than pounds and pence. I'm pleased to be able to report it's shot up in value in the last year.

RenovationMan · 11 May 2012 at 3:18PM

He's 'always said', since he joined well after the crash in December 2011...

Hmnnn. :rotfl:

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