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When are the markets going to back to 'normal'?
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The minor blip this week, soon. The events of 2008 and 2009 being great bear and bull periods will be remembered for a century or more. 2008 particularly. The Euro fuss may or may not be remembered for a century, depends what happens to the Euro zone.
Minor blip?
The £5.500 billion of assets that the banks wrote off in the aftermath of Lehmans collpase is coming home to roost.
Low interest rates and QE were only ever sticking plasters. Now the true hard work starts to create real wealth. Not paper profits based on leveraging debt on assets.0 -
Today was a very bad day for the FTSE 100, Mail claims fears of a 'double dip' are mounting. Now that would be catastrophic to say the least. Fingers crossed this doesn't happen.0
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I agree with the OP. This is not a normal marketHow long before this all seems like a distant memory, 2015, 2020 or even longer?
2020 at least I think. How long before governments arent in danger of collapse, that will happen just after a collapse or very drastic countermeasures like halving budgeted spending
All the USA debt ceiling fuss? They decided to increase spending, the news was no we wont be doing anything different. In 2013 after the election they might make a cut till then they spend borrowed money.
All the UK cuts, are pretty similar we are overspending. Till that changes we wont get that solid base line where its just company news.
It'll always be about currency worth and politics now
So there is a common theme going back to 2008 or 2007 where debts cant be paid. Each time its peaks its even more serious who is effected, next peak will be worse then this one.
I do not see a resolution occurring without uncontrollable losses
About 3 years ago I read an article mentioning the weakest link effect in debt failure. That is what seems to be occurring though I admit I ignored the warning as 'theoretical'
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Something that I've seen around one day in 23 in a sample of 1067 trading days isn't going to persuade me that the world is ending.
Going back only as far as May 2007 here are some statistics for daily value variations in my S&S ISA, non-cumulative:
Over 6% drop: 2
Over 5% drop: 2
Over 4% drop: 4
Over 3% drop: 13 (1.22%)
Over 2% drop: 50 (4.69%)
Over 1% drop: 118
Over 0% drop: 305
Less than 0.01% up or down: 17
Over 0% gain: 355
Over 1% gain: 150
Over 2% gain: 34
Over 3% gain: 10
Over 4% gain: 4
Over 5% gain: 1
Over 6% gain: 1
Over 7% gain: 0
Over 8% gain: 1
There were 45 days, 4.2%, where the drop was 2.40% or more, the FTSE 100 report for today. 6.65% of days when there was a loss of 2% or more and 17.71% where there was a loss of 1% or more.
Yes. The odd percentage point or two is just the usual sort of market reaction to news.Thrugelmir wrote: »Minor blip?
A couple of percent isn't a very bad day. Twenty percent? That would be a bad day. At least for those with lots of money invested in it and not ready to invest.almondsalty wrote: »Today was a very bad day for the FTSE 100
I'm hardly going to get all excited about a less than 5% drop in my S&S ISA value since the start of the year either.
If we saw similar drops for a few weeks it might be a good time to do some cheaper buying.0 -
A couple of percent isn't a very bad day. Twenty percent? That would be a bad day. At least for those with lots of money invested in it and not ready to invest.
I was fortunate: 19th October 1987 occurred relatively early in my (other than cash) investment life, so I didn't have much in equities when it fell. Those were interesting times. It is only with hindsight that they appear to be less-so.
But it was a useful experience for me. It taught me to take an interest in what was going on in the business world, the value of having a diverse portfolio using several asset classes, and it helped me to avoid the excesses of DotCom. I might have said this in another post, so apologies if it is repetition.
So, if 2020 is seen as the time when 'now' will be a distant memory, is that a current buy signal?Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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Ark_Welder wrote: »
So, if 2020 is seen as the time when 'now' will be a distant memory, is that a current buy signal?
Definitely for some companies. Re-insurers particularly are really out of favour with Mr Market at the moment due to an unprecedented number of natural disasters this year, and there are some really good ones that manage their risk very well, I'll soon be investing in Amlin who took a whack this week from revising down profit forecasts. They aren't one of the biggest companies but they make remarkable underwriting profits.
But there are still some overvalued, looking at Amazon the other day, its P/E is still over 50 or something ridiculous.Faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.0 -
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Your mugs if you think waiting around for the markets to go 'back up' is the solution.
In 2010, the FTSE 100 went up 108% and down -95% based on closing prices (up 7% overall). You either play the long game and wait in which case you don't have to worry what the market does until a week before your cash in date.
Or, you get in a micro manage your investments. At the moment, today is a good day to buy cheap shares or funds as prices will eventually go up a bit because demand is created by mugs paying into pension funds out of their monthly insults.
If I was nursing losses with no cash, I'd sell half to get back in the market and leave what's left to recover.
The technique of buying cheap and selling for no more than 5% profit, although not as good as last year, is currently helping me out perform the market by 9% PA.0 -
What makes you think things will ever be the same again? The economic dominance of the world by the West isn't a permanent given. It's over. We aren't in a normal recession, we're at the start of a long decline. Get used to it.almondsalty wrote: »I'm trying to get my head around how long the markets will be 'down' for, some say by the end of the year all will be OK but I don't see much changing? How long before this all seems like a distant memory, 2015, 2020 or even longer?
U.S. manufacturing was the engine of the 20th century, but it will never be the same again. Devaluing the dollar won't make it competitive again. After the BRICs there are plenty of other countries queuing up with large supplies of cheap labour.
Remember the U.S. banks are still keeping huge commercial property losses off their balance sheets, which they'll have to write off some time. Governments are keeping huge unfunded liabilities out of their accounts and playing games with negative real interest rates. Vast amounts of funny money have been printed, which are supposed to be withdrawn when the time is right, but the necessary conditions are nowhere in sight. All the news is false, but reality will force its way out eventually."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0 -
What makes you think things will ever be the same again? The economic dominance of the world by the West isn't a permanent given. It's over. We aren't in a normal recession, we're at the start of a long decline. Get used to it.
In the 20th Century, the US was effectively an emerging market. In the 21st Century it moves into decline and the East takes over as the emerging market.I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.0
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