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House prices will plummet 10 percent
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Hope you've got a long memory, IveSeenTheLight.....
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btloptingout wrote: »Think for one minute how much employment is stacked on property and the process of moving....
Esate agents, builders, handy men, solicitors, surveyors, removals, furnishing retailers, white goods providers.....the list goes on and on and on.
A 10% drop will not happen in isolation.....the ultimate result will be a significant recession....where will your "most people getting on with their jobs and lives" be?
Ask anyone of working age who went through '88-'94 how that inital 10% drop eventualy affected them. It's been so long since we suffered a recession we've forgotten how much they hurt.
Indeed this crystal ball gazing is lost on the average person on the street......the average Joe will not see the personal repurcusions of what's coming for approximately another 18mths.
What a lot of poo ;-) It NOT going to happen ;-)0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »We'll see however as caveatvenditor reckons that in 5 years time (Dec 2012) that the prices will be lower than they were in 2005 / 2006
My money's on prices being lower than 2005/2006 in 1 years time (Dec 2008)
In fact if you want to sell your house in 0 years, (Dec 2007) you'll need to drop the price below 2005/2006 prices.Bankruptcy isn't the worst that can happen to you. The worst that can happen is your forced to live the rest of your life in abject poverty trying to repay the debts.0 -
caveatvenditor wrote: »Anyone who's borrowed against their house - you're in serious trouble.
Every single person with a mortgage?0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »IveSeenTheLight, I'm more than happy to stick my neck out and say that yes, I believe prices at the address quoted in Aberdeen will fall to at or below their 2005/6 prices. Aberdeen was one of the last places to have felt the full impact of rising prices that hit the rest of the UK much earlier, and as such, will be one of the first to fall.
But that's not what you want to hear, is it?
I'm open to debate and willing to listen to other side of an argument.
We'll see however as caveatvenditor reckons that in 5 years time (Dec 2012) that the prices will be lower than they were in 2005 / 2006
As you rightly stated, Aberdeen and Scotland have lagged behind the rest of the UK in terms of house prices and Scotland is still one of the cheapest places to buy in Britain. It is because of this that I dont think there will be massive price drops in Aberdeen, maybe a small drop, more likely a period of stagnation
We'll see who bumps this thread in Dec 2012 to say I told you so
Ok were two years down the road and let's have an update on where we are
Just carried out a search using nethouseprices and while no 22 has not yet been re-sold a couple of other properties have been
No 24 sold on 17 Nov 09 for £138,000. It previously sold for £66,000 on 01 Aug 2003 while the property we'd like to compare no22 sold on Aug 05th 03 for £63,511 so is a very close comparitor
Seems there is still a very long way to go to reach 2005 / 2006 prices :rolleyes::wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight, I'm more than happy to stick my neck out and say that yes, I believe prices at the address quoted in Aberdeen will fall to at or below their 2005/6 prices.
Aberdeen prices never left 2007 levels.Aberdeen was one of the last places to have felt the full impact of rising prices that hit the rest of the UK much earlier, and as such, will be one of the first to fall.
It was one of the last to fall, revisiting it's 2007 peak again in 2008, long after the rest of the uK was falling.
It did fall in 2009, but then rebounded faster and farther than almost anywhere else and recovered to peak (well, >10/12 months in 2007) prices in 2010.
But then, that's not what you want to hear, is it?;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Ok were two years down the road and let's have an update on where we are
Just carried out a search using nethouseprices and while no 22 has not yet been re-sold a couple of other properties have been
No 24 sold on 17 Nov 09 for £138,000. It previously sold for £66,000 on 01 Aug 2003 while the property we'd like to compare no22 sold on Aug 05th 03 for £63,511 so is a very close comparitor
Seems there is still a very long way to go to reach 2005 / 2006 prices :rolleyes:
Another update.
No 27 just sold for £175k on Aug 10.
No 27 is a very good comparitor with no 22 as they both sold on the same date on 05 Aug 2003.
05 Aug 2003 No 27 = £60,000
05 Aug 2003 No 22 = £63,511
If we can presume witha rough estimation that no 22 maintained the same level of HPI as no 27, then this would indicate that it would need approx a 46% drop from now until Dec 2012 for it to achieve the 2005 / 2006 prices
http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&locality=&town=ABERDEEN&street=ALBYN+GROVE&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&house_type=All&search_radius=15&northingToSearch=80560&eastingToSearch=39280&cCode=SC&outcode=AB10&incode=6SQ&order=&start_limit=40&curPage=3:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
pineapplefool wrote: »Actually you're wong! Except for the downslides we have every decade or so, property always always rises again and everyone I know makes an absolute FORTUNE when they sell their properties 10 years down the line! Throughout history we've always had dip every decade, and then it booms again. It's the pattern of property, and that's why so many people have gotten rich out of buying
Don't we just start seeing some tiny green shoots and everyone will stop panicking????They've been an awful long time coming:(:(:(0 -
pineapplefool wrote: »Throughout history we've always had dip every decade, and then it booms again. It's the pattern of property, and that's why so many people have gotten rich out of buying
that's not actually right. Even slightly.
For example (as it's the most extreme one I can think of) land values fell in the early 1350s, and took over a hundred years to recover....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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