Debate House Prices


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Nationwide. 29 May 2008. -2.5 (month) -4.4 (year)

2456712

Comments

  • carolt
    carolt Posts: 8,531 Forumite
    Ooooh, not long till Halifax prices out too...

    I do like the end of the month.....
  • mitchaa
    mitchaa Posts: 4,487 Forumite
    carolt wrote: »
    So why are you so bothered then?

    Can't think why you're responding on house price threads at 8am if it's a matter of no importance to you? :confused:

    Pasturesnew is a well-known STR, that's why she cares. But to fair, she posts plenty elsewhere too - you don't strike me as a very Old Style kind of guy somehow, though...?! Maybe I'm wrong, and you were just up early on mse to check the recipe for your new scones..... ;)

    Nah, just got into work to find out my daily work schedule could be done in about an hour and a half:p 6 hrs to waste surfing the web then ;)
  • poppy10_2
    poppy10_2 Posts: 6,588 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    skap7309 wrote: »
    More than expected?

    "The Nationwide Building Society said house prices fell 2.5 percent this month, more than four times the rate of decline forecast by analysts, after a 0.9 percent fall in April.
    House prices have now fallen for seven months in a row -- the longest consecutive period of monthly house price falls since 1992"
    However, the strength of house price growth up until last year means that prices are still 5% higher than two years ago and 10% higher than
    three years ago.
    LOL :rotfl:For the last few months people have been joking on this forum about the fact that Haliwide were always pointing out that YoY growth as still positive, despite the monthly price tanking, and wondering what they would do once this crutch was knocked away. Know we know - just widen the timescale. Next month: Prices are still higher than 5 years ago - good news!
    poppy10
  • firsttimetom
    firsttimetom Posts: 298 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    Thats great news.

    I'd hate to be a seller who is SSTC. You just know you'll be gazundered.

    Seriously though, there are people in my area who have had their house on the market since last summer and haven't budged on the price. How much longer can they hold out?
  • Much worse than I thought.

    I've been somewhere in the middle ground on the likely eventual percentage fall. I'd started out expecting 20%, but have revised that to 30% recently.

    With almost 5% falls in 2 months 30% is starting to look a little optimistic.

    This sort of headline will only cause even more loss of confidence, leading to greater falls.
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    mitchaa wrote: »
    I cant help but think London is a massive governing factor when working out these figures just the same way it does when the national average wage is claimed to be £25k.

    If London is dropping, its a sure certainty that the whole of the UK is dropping:rolleyes:

    I would tend to think this too.
    This is what hapened the last time in the early 90's as well
    Look at http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/inclu...TownsData3.xls,
    Compare London boroughs to other areas and from my random check, you can see that the London and South areas were far greater affected and had a large affect on the UK average which was not seen elsewhere.
    Why bring the 1st Quarter figures into the subject?
    That was then.
    This is now.

    Agreed, the Q1 report is 2 months old now, but it will be good nect month as the quarterly reports show regional variances whereas the monthly report does not.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    mitchaa wrote: »
    Pasturesnew....If there was 1 person on MSE that i could have thought of last night getting up at the crack of dawn to search for the nationwides latest release MOM figures report, it would have been you:rotfl:
    I was up at 5am ... and knew the figures were embargoed until 7am. Just happened to be at a loose end by then.
    mitchaa wrote: »
    You seem to have a real fascination with house prices, dont you live in council/HA housing?
    I wish! That route's always been denied me. Being single you're the back of the list and I've always lived in areas where it would take 20-25 years to get anywhere by being on the list.
    mitchaa wrote: »
    Not quite sure why the market interests you so much, it seems to take up your entire life:confused:
    Because I STR'd .... and have some obsessive compulsive parts to my behaviours. Just checking I didn't f00k up.
    mitchaa wrote: »
    Houses dropping is a good thing, it means for me to step upto a 5bed, it wont cost me £75k, it will now only cost me £50k.
    I only need a 1-bed. In fact, only 1 room is pretty much needed. I can only ever be in one room at a time. Fact.

    I sold a 6-bed. Most rooms I never went into. I just opened the doors every couple of months to check they were still there.
    mitchaa wrote: »
    I just think some of you guys are letting HPC facts and figures take over your lifes
    Everybody has to have a hobby - and it sure beats getting a sweaty crack in lycra!
  • mitchaa wrote: »
    Peak October 2007 @ £186,044
    June 2008, 8 months later @ £173,583

    -£12,500 in 7 months or a 6.7% ''crash'' at the moment.

    So at -£12,461 in 7 months, if we assume a steady decline throughout the year, and extrapolate the 7 months loss to 12 months, it means -£21,361 per annum.

    Against the peak price in Oct 07, that means it's actually undergoing an annual drop of -11.48%!!!

    Something wrong with my calculations?
  • mitchaa
    mitchaa Posts: 4,487 Forumite
    Peak £186,044 in Oct 2007, 30% fall would bring that figure down to £130,230.

    Wishful thinking i think, i think it may drop to around the £150ish mark before picking up again.

    Halifax tells us an average priced home is around £225k
  • mitchaa
    mitchaa Posts: 4,487 Forumite
    So at -£12,461 in 7 months, if we assume a steady decline throughout the year, and extrapolate the 7 months loss to 12 months, it means -£21,361 per annum.

    Against the peak price in Oct 07, that means it's actually undergoing an annual drop of -11.48%!!!

    Something wrong with my calculations?

    Yep thats correct, if we see the same over the next 5 months to October, it will officially be a 11.5% crash from peak values. (According to nationwide anyway)

    More i suppose if you factor in inflation.
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