Debate House Prices


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So... nationwide tomorrow

24

Comments

  • neverdespairgirl
    neverdespairgirl Posts: 16,501 Forumite
    I'm betting on -3% Y on Y
    ...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.
  • mystic_trev
    mystic_trev Posts: 5,434 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »

    1st prize: A night out with Generali
    2nd prize: 2 nights out with Generali.

    3rd Prize: Introduction to Golf Umbrellas with Bruno!

    -2.70% YOY
  • Paul_N_4
    Paul_N_4 Posts: 344 Forumite
    I think they'll hit us with a new and 'improved' way of adjusting for seasonal variances (in light of recent housing market events), and hit us with a +1.5% monthly increase bringing YoY HPI back up to about 0%.
  • stonethrower
    stonethrower Posts: 340 Forumite
    Paul_N wrote: »
    I think they'll hit us with a new and 'improved' way of adjusting for seasonal variances (in light of recent housing market events), and hit us with a +1.5% monthly increase bringing YoY HPI back up to about 0%.

    Wouldn't surprise me
  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    I don't bet and there's no way I am prepared to actually think it through, consider the figures and come up with a real prediction.

    So staying out of this one as it is the path of least effort... and I am watching the world's smallest man on TV. Which, to me, seems more interesting this time of night.
  • PasturesNew
    PasturesNew Posts: 70,698 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Paul_N wrote: »
    I think they'll hit us with a new and 'improved' way of adjusting for seasonal variances (in light of recent housing market events), and hit us with a +1.5% monthly increase bringing YoY HPI back up to about 0%.
    I am torn between this .... and them just giving up.
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    Generali wrote: »
    Page 3:

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

    A rise of 1% is due to fall out of the YoY figues. The index for May 07 was 362.2 and the index for April 08 was 356.2 so no change in prices during May 08 would mean a fall of:

    (356.2-362.2)/362.2 = -6/362.2 = -1.7%

    -3% YoY is possible.

    According to Nationwide May 2007 average price was 181,584.
    Apr 2008 was 178,555

    So between May 2007 and April 2008 was a YoY drop of 1.6%
    To drop to 3% the average price would need to be 176,136

    Its entirely possible

    Peak price (Oct 2007) was average 186,044 and Apr 2008 was 178,555 representing a 4.2% drop, so it is not shocking news with house prices correcting and we are getting nearer the peak price YoY months that the YoY rate will get to at least 4.2% or even more depending how much the house prices correct.

    Roughly working the figures, it would seem like we are heading to approxiamately an 8% YoY drop in October.

    If this rate was to cintinue, it would mean that the average house price would be back in line with the Real House Price Long Term Trend about next spring / summer. The question then will be if or by how much will house prices overshoot the trend and therefore be undervalued.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    I can't wait for the June results as I prefer the quarterly reports which gives a better look at the regional variances rather than the UK as a broad spectrum
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • dean_ham
    dean_ham Posts: 277 Forumite
    neas wrote: »
    1.5% Month on Month drop ?

    I think its probable :P

    If its less, its lies all lies :)
  • neas
    neas Posts: 3,801 Forumite
    it was 2.5% or so lol :P more than expected... huraaah! :)
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