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Debate House Prices
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A lot of talk...
Comments
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mr.broderick wrote: »Must admit i have been accused of being a drug user a couple of times now on mse. i am going to have to change my angle. I've noticed a few of the hardcore bears have been missing lately...SORTOFOK, DOLCEVITA ETC
Well I had to ask because a good number of your past posts had been spot on and made perfect sense, but then all of a sudden you come out with this rubbish about it all being over and everything's hunkydory again.
One can only assume you are seriously unwell or on some kind of medication. :huh:
Rob0 -
Well I had to ask because a good number of your past posts had been spot on and made perfect sense, but then all of a sudden you come out with this rubbish about it all being over and everything's hunkydory again.
One can only assume you are seriously unwell or on some kind of medication. :huh:
Rob
or bored, and out to get a rise out of people who take the internet a bit too seriously ?It's a health benefit ...0 -
That's what I love about this board.
Someone gives their opinion and if you don't agree with it you act like a ****.
Says a hell of alot more about you than the OP. In my opinon. (see what I did there?
) 0 -
Iveseenthelight is still dancing on top of the "New Paradigm peak", singing happy songs for all his worth...
Nice graphs. I think anyone in their right mind would agree with the second graph. I for have the thinking of the right hand boxes. £ years ago I was stressed out with the amount of business I was handling. Now I am stressed by the lack of it!!!!
No just being realistic, if you are going to highlight my name, try to show something which you can factually prove I said was incorrect.
I wont hold my breath
As for the graphs, mean nothing without scaling.
Also from HPC, this graph shows we are only 22% on average overvalued.
Either a 22% drop is required now or less than 15% over 3 years
Actually the trend of using a 2.4% inflation for the Average Real House Price Trend is actually incorrect.
If you refer to this it shows that between 1975 and 2006 there was a total inflation rise of 597%. This equates to approx 5.93% per year rise. the link shows a rise of 618% since 1975.
Arguably, if you were to project this trend of 5.93% per year a 50,000 property would be values at 316,000. Probably not far from current prices.
Are properties over valued?, possibly but more realistically, we are probably returning to an era where not everyone can afford to buy property.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »No just being realistic, if you are going to highlight my name, try to show something which you can factually prove I said was incorrect.
I wont hold my breath
As for the graphs, mean nothing without scaling.
Also from HPC, this graph shows we are only 22% on average overvalued.
Either a 22% drop is required now or less than 15% over 3 years
Actually the trend of using a 2.4% inflation for the Average Real House Price Trend is actually incorrect.
If you refer to this it shows that between 1975 and 2006 there was a total inflation rise of 597%. This equates to approx 5.93% per year rise. the link shows a rise of 618% since 1975.
Arguably, if you were to project this trend of 5.93% per year a 50,000 property would be values at 316,000. Probably not far from current prices.
Are properties over valued?, possibly but more realistically, we are probably returning to an era where not everyone can afford to buy property.
The biggest problem with putting a straight line for inflation on the graph is that inflation has been far from constant over the period. Check the NSO website but I think you'll find they bounced around between 10-20% in the late 70s & early 80s, fell pretty dramatically through the 80s before another steep rise at the end of the Lawson Boom in the late 80s and then declined through to about 4-5 years ago since when they have been relatively static (in historic terms).
Graphs like that are generally huge over simplifications (IMO) and also imply a 'reversion to mean' as if houses had some kind of collective memory as to the correct price level they should have.
From a pretty facile look at the house market, the long term driver seems to be rising levels of home ownership and the short term driver the growth in money supply/inflation.
My guess is that as the population ages, older people will sell big houses and buy smaller ones as they slowly work out they've been sold into a vast pyramid scheme with the state pension - the money isn't there to pay them and it can't be paid for with taxes without destroying the economy. People are going to have to sell the only asset they have in many cases - their house.0 -
Popping up to say something has spooked the futures market again. It currently expects the average UK house to cost £146k in December 2010 (was £200k at the peak) and the average London house to cost £232k (was £305k at the peak).
I hope that is not true! My OH and I are contemplating moving abroad as we do not see Construction ever being the way it was again. That would definitely not be good for us as that would at the time we would probably hoping to sell!:mad:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Arguably, if you were to project this trend of 5.93% per year a 50,000 property would be values at 316,000. Probably not far from current prices.
I think a house worth 50k in 1975 would be on the market for a great deal more than 316k these days...
My parents bought a semi for around 30k in 1979 which were selling last year around the 300k mark.0 -
I think a house worth 50k in 1975 would be on the market for a great deal more than 316k these days...
My parents' place was bought in 1976 for £20k and would be marketed for about £450-500k today at a guess.
It is about 10 miles from a station which has excellent links to London so is commutable if you don't mind a very long journey to work. More people seem to be prepared to do that these days and the price has probably risen faster than the market as a whole to reflect that. I guess that the price will fall faster than average as prices fall as more people are able to afford a better commute.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »No just being realistic, if you are going to highlight my name, try to show something which you can factually prove I said was incorrect.
I wont hold my breath
As for the graphs, mean nothing without scaling.
Also from HPC, this graph shows we are only 22% on average overvalued.
Either a 22% drop is required now or less than 15% over 3 years
Actually the trend of using a 2.4% inflation for the Average Real House Price Trend is actually incorrect.
If you refer to this it shows that between 1975 and 2006 there was a total inflation rise of 597%. This equates to approx 5.93% per year rise. the link shows a rise of 618% since 1975.
Arguably, if you were to project this trend of 5.93% per year a 50,000 property would be values at 316,000. Probably not far from current prices.
Are properties over valued?, possibly but more realistically, we are probably returning to an era where not everyone can afford to buy property.
Who said that line represents inflation? Its simply a trend line. The average increase in property prices over a time period. So you've gone off on a bit of a tangent with your figures there.0 -
Post number 14.......................
HOLY CRAP! Didnt think things were quite THAT bad! :eek:
Only a matter of time before prices plummet after seeing that :beer: :j0
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