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Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?
Comments
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I post on HPC also ans have done for many years.80% I find hard to take but 30 % over a period I think is possible.0
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I think the main thing to remember is that if you have bought to nest rather than to invest the value of the property is absolutely academic. It only matters when you come to sell, and even then if the value has fallen then the price of your new house will also have fallen.
On the other hand, if you have paid an inflated price to BTL and you have difficulty making the repayment with falling rents then worrying times are ahead.
terryw"If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools"
Extract from "If" by Rudyard Kipling0 -
I strongly believe that between price falls and currency falls houses will drop by 80% on average over 10 years just like the Japanese housing crash of the 90s.
I want to know what YOUR prediction is on house prices, and if you disagree with mine rather than just flame me give me real evidence to back up your opinion.
1. Japanese residential property fell by 70% only in the most extreme cases. So, your initial statement needs to be qualified (and slightly better researched). Our equivalent is new build btl flats in Leeds and Manchester and they are already down 50% (realised prices not asking prices).
2. My assertion of 35-50% is based on the assumption of a mortgage famine caused by banks becoming risk averse for the next decade and a return to the 3.5 X salary mortgage. That means for a three bed semi on the market in Southampton currently at 180k falling to 95k -120k depending on location. Flats will fall by upto 50% in Southampton for the same reason.0 -
???? What about gifted deposits and paid for legal fees? Surely they will actually need to give people a cash incentive as well, to make them sell?PMSL!!!! why not just go the whole hog and predict 100% falls? Free houses for all?
You'll be better off to wait for this to happen and then buy a whole street. Profit!!!!After the uprising of the 17th June The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?0 -
???? What about gifted deposits and paid for legal fees? Surely they will actually need to give people a cash incentive as well, to make them sell?
You'll be better off to wait for this to happen and then buy a whole street. Profit!!!!
Yep I reckon £0 asking price, £5k gifted deposit. They also pay your council tax for a year.0 -
So are you talking about a foreign investor buying into UK. Otherwise currency fluctuation would not be included ...As the transaction would be completed entirely in Sterling .
In theory everyone should value their wealth in real terms rather than in how much sterling they have, you seem to be suggesting that if sterling is devalued by 50% people are NOT losing 50% of their wealth (of any savings or sterling denominated asset assuming asset price doesnt increase to compensate).
And I would say thats crazy, everyone should value their wealth in real terms and that means if £1 can buy a loaf of bread today they should have the equivalent of a loaf of bread in 10 years time, so if that means £5 they should have £5. But if they just keep £1 in the bank for 10 years and the interest made is only a fraction of the inflation rate they would significantly lose out and can now only afford half a loaf of bread.
In real terms a person not buying a house now could be richer than someone who does, and a person who lives abroad whose currency does not devalue will be getting richer than someone who stays here. In real terms currency is a very important factor and should not be ignored. Anyone who thinks average houses will only drop by 15% in value (not just price) is very naive because the availability of credit has already halfed from 6x income to 3.5x yet sentiment still has a long way to drop so we are nowhere near the worst of it.0 -
So we should all go and live abroad, and get our "wealth" up. Stuff family and friends (and work), life is just about wealth. In fact I would be better off without my dog, he just costs me more money as I have to buy him food and pay for vet bills. And I will stop going to visit my parents as they live 100 miles away and the petrol is eating in to my wealth.....
How sad your life must be!0 -
How about you giving us some real evidence to back up your opinion
House prices have tripled over a 10 year period due to excessive credit lending. It would only take a 33% price fall (which some on here admit they expect) and a 50% fall in the value of sterling (through inflation) to get back to the point before prices tripled- which would be a 66% fall.
Then you have to take into account a large overshoot in falls because people will religiously not buy property because "it only does down". The best time to buy a house will be when people tell you that you are mad for doing so, and that hugely negative sentiment is whats going to cause the falls to be so great.
Someone mentioned a house is a home and not an investment, well I beg to differ because if your paying 50% of your salary on a mortgage your quality of life is going to be signficantly hampered and hence there is large financial consequences for buying at the top of the market even if you never plan on selling. Your basically paying over the odds for something which has a true value much lower due to inflated land prices and excessive controls of housing supply.0 -
Someone mentioned a house is a home and not an investment, well I beg to differ because if your paying 50% of your salary on a mortgage your quality of life is going to be signficantly hampered and hence there is large financial consequences for buying at the top of the market even if you never plan on selling. Your basically paying over the odds for something which has a true value much lower due to inflated land prices and excessive controls of housing supply.
Ah bless you. It must be nice living in your head.0
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