Help me choose a benchmark

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Hi.
Im struggling to think of something sensible to benchmark my portfolio against.


Its 6 companies, 100% UK equities of varying market cap, most of which trade globally.


I therefore feel the FTSE all share would be sensible.


However, I also think a more sensible benchmark would be whatever I would be invested in if I wasn't picking individual companies. So probably a world index or maybe an active fund?


I want to be able to compare my performance to that of the market to see my outperformance (or otherwise).
Has anyone else faced this dilemma? What do you recommend?
Im A Budding Neil Woodford.
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  • Apodemus
    Apodemus Posts: 3,384 Forumite
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    I would suggest that you benchmark against your own goals and relieve yourself of any stress about how well or badly other people are doing.

    My own goal is for any cash invested to retain its value when judged against local inflation, plus 2.5% to 3% annual return, either through dividends or capital growth.
  • bowlhead99
    bowlhead99 Posts: 12,295 Forumite
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    edited 17 January 2020 at 9:24AM
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    If you are restricting your share purchases to the UK main market then the most obvious benchmark is the FTSE All-Share which tracks the performance of the £2.375 trillion of market cap in free float which has sufficient liquidity to qualify for the index. In building your portfolio you have made active selections to include or exclude each of the 629 companies which feature in the All-Share and by how much to 'overweight' or 'underweight' each of them compared to how much investor capital value was allocated to each of them by the market at a given date.

    However, you mention the companies are of varying market cap and on selecting your companies you won't have necessarily followed the profile of the All-Share constituents. Different parts of the all share have different company profiles and if the FTSE100 is 23% international oil and resources companies and 9% construction/industrials while FTSE250 is 4% oil/materials and 22% industrials while generally being much smaller companies, it may not be much of a benchmark to measure the returns of the FTSE All-Share (which is 79.5% FTSE100 companies, 16.9% FTSE250 companies and 3.6% FTSE Small cap).

    So, you might like to make a custom UK benchmark out of three different indexes - e.g. 40% FTSE100, 35% FTSE250, 35% FTSE Small.

    However, as you have such a tiny concentrated set of investments and not a broad portfolio with a target modelled profile - because you are presumably not following a specific asset allocation strategy, simply buying 6 companies you like - there is perhaps limited usefulness in constructing your own blended index that 'looks a bit like my portfolio'. It is much more useful to instead think of it from an opportunity cost perspective, and see what you quite easily could have done by following a different approach if you didn't bother to pick the individual shares yourself.

    So perhaps:

    a) if I didn't pick my own concentrated portfolio of UK listed companies, perhaps I would have paid someone else to do that for me based on their 'expert' research and personal convictions. So, how did my return after costs compare to the net return of a UK focused actively managed fund like those from Lindsell Train, Liontrust, Marlborough or Unicorn - or a blend of all of them. Sites like trustnet.com allow you to build a virtual portfolio of accumulation funds to see how you would have done, or just plot the return of the IA UK All Companies sector generally.

    b) if I wasn't having to buy the shares myself off a local stock market I wouldn't stick just to the UK (though I might have a UK bias because I live there); I would cast my net globally for exposure into all types of company equities all over developed and emerging markets. By using a tracker fund which aims to approximate the returns of the FTSE Global All-Cap index I'd have exposure to $57 trillion of free float market cap, weighted towards the biggest companies invested around the world. Though I would then have 95% of the underlying investments in foreign stockmarkets which sounds a bit gung-ho for me sitting here in the UK, so maybe 85% Global All Cap and 15% FTSE 250 would be a good benchmark for the risk/return profile I would take.

    Having decided what would be a good benchmark index or blend of indexes, it is perhaps more useful to use an index fund as your benchmark rather than the raw index, because in practice if you were investing globally you would incur transaction fees and management costs - you are doing yourself a disservice if you worry about being 'beaten' by the raw index, because nobody can practically invest in 'the index' without some fraction of a percent of costs every year.
    Apodemus wrote: »
    I would suggest that you benchmark against your own goals and relieve yourself of any stress about how well or badly other people are doing.

    My own goal is for any cash invested to retain its value when judged against local inflation, plus 2.5% to 3% annual return, either through dividends or capital growth.

    This is very sensible because the ultimate way of judging whether you have set out what you intend to achieve, is to see what you would like to achieve and then measure whether you did. That is the heart of the whole concept of having a benchmark or comparator for how you have performed.

    If a global index drops 50% will you be happy that you dropped 49% and 'beat the objective' of equalling or exceeding that benchmark? Or actually is your objective to grow your assets over time without dropping more than 30% from a high point, in which case you shouldn't be happy to lose 49%, because with hindsight you should have built yourself a less volatile portfolio than you actually did..
  • Alexland
    Alexland Posts: 9,668 Forumite
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    edited 17 January 2020 at 9:26AM
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    The most important consideration is if your contributions, asset allocation and investment performance are likely to meet your long term goals.

    Although yes if you are taking an active approach then you could consider your investment performance against what you would have bought if you had taken a more passive approach such as an All-World index tracker or an adventurous / balanced mixed asset fund. Or in your case a UK index tracker fund.

    Assuming a similar risk profile then in any given year it is pretty random if an active or indexing approach would do better. An active fund might beat the index for several years in a row in the right economic circumstances. The advantages to passive investing become clearer when looking over longer periods of time (ie a proper investment timeline) when compared against the active funds that survived the whole period. As such it would be hard to use passive as a day-to-day benchmark unless your active investments are performing very badly.

    Alex
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    Care to share what they are and why you hold these six specific companies ?
  • kinger101
    kinger101 Posts: 6,295 Forumite
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    benbay001 wrote: »
    What do you recommend?

    Immediately selling all 6 holdings and purchasing a globally diversified ETF or OEIC.
    "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius
  • benbay001
    benbay001 Posts: 408 Forumite
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    edited 18 January 2020 at 1:35PM
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    Thank you for the first three replies.


    I am after something that I can look at the performance for say the past 3 months, and compare it to my own portfolio to see how much I have under or out performed.
    With regards to benchmarking the FTSE all share, my worry is that it probably isn't what I would otherwise be holding.

    AnotherJoe wrote: »
    Care to share what they are and why you hold these six specific companies ?


    I would love to.


    IAG
    SOM
    TIFS
    IDP
    WRKS


    Simply put, I hold them all because I believe they trade significantly below their true value.


    Sorry that's 5 - Bad maths.
    Im A Budding Neil Woodford.
  • Linton
    Linton Posts: 17,219 Forumite
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    edited 18 January 2020 at 2:19PM
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    benbay001 wrote: »
    Thank you for the first three replies.

    I am after something that I can look at the performance for say the past 3 months, and compare it to my own portfolio to see how much I have under or out performed.
    With regards to benchmarking the FTSE all share, my worry is that it probably isn't what I would otherwise be holding.


    Over the short term different investments will probably behave differently. Your chosen shares may perform better than your chosen benchmark over one 3 month period and worse over the next one. This is telling you nothing about under or over performance, just that the investments being measured are different, which you knew anyway.



    For any meaningful comparison with a benchmark you need a significant time period which includes a range of different economic conditions. You also need the benchmark to be compatible with your objectives - there is no point in worrying about under performing against a benchmark that would not satisfy your objectives. This seems to be the case with your share based portfolio and a FTSE index.


    So I am firmly in the camp that believes the only useful comparison is against your actual objectives. Of course if one of your objectives is to match an index within some bounds then it makes sense to use that index as a benchmark. If matching the index is your primary objective, forget the benchmarking and invest in the index.


    PS: Just occured to me. You appear to believe that you can choose shares that will perform well in the future. Why not every year choose a random set of 5 or 6 shares of about the same size and use this as your benchmark. It should indicate whether your strategy is effective.
  • benbay001
    benbay001 Posts: 408 Forumite
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    What I mean, I guess is that more often than not, general market sentiment dictates the direction of travel for everything, with just a few outliers. By choosing a bench mark that I can watch on a 3 month basis I was looking for something I can use as a gauge for market sentiment over that time.
    Trade war worries - Brexit - Currency movements etc.


    Now I have typed that out, its made me realise, that actually, the FTSE all share is probably what im describing.. shame its so oil heavy which probably prevents it from tracking the market sentiment as well as it could?
    Im A Budding Neil Woodford.
  • bostonerimus
    bostonerimus Posts: 5,617 Forumite
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    With just 6 companies a wide stock market index is pretty meaningless. Such comparisons are actually meaningless for most people and only serve as a psychological crutch. Instead come up with a return figure that will ensure you meet your financial goals and compare to that.
    “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
  • kinger101
    kinger101 Posts: 6,295 Forumite
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    benbay001 wrote: »
    What I mean, I guess is that more often than not, general market sentiment dictates the direction of travel for everything, with just a few outliers. By choosing a bench mark that I can watch on a 3 month basis I was looking for something I can use as a gauge for market sentiment over that time.
    Trade war worries - Brexit - Currency movements etc.


    Now I have typed that out, its made me realise, that actually, the FTSE all share is probably what im describing.. shame its so oil heavy which probably prevents it from tracking the market sentiment as well as it could?

    I'm still confused as to what you're trying to achieve. If it's checking the performance of your stock picks relative to the market, then it doesn't make a whole lot of sense as you're comparing small n with large n. Small n will be more volatile, especially over periods as low at three months.

    It it's market sentiment, it will highly likely be seen in any index. We're not going to have bullish FTSE 100 but bearish AIM.
    "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius
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