What are the benefits & cons should the UK leave the EU?

There is another forum for Debates. You will find lots of people with strong views there.

As far as investments are concerned for a sensible investor invested in shares across the world if BREXIT is a disastrous failure the £ will fall resulting in values in £s rising. So the investor wins out compared with the non-investor. And vice versa if it is a brilliant success.

You will have your own views as to which is more likely.

A fall in the economy would I guess cause interest rates to rise as gilt rates are increased by the government trying to protect the £ though whether that would do savers much real good depends on inflation which could also rise. The balance between inflation and interest rates also is a matter of concern for mortgage payers.

A post BREXIT boom could also give rise to inflation as the increased demand for labour with supply being constrained by tough immigration rules causes wages to rise.

Unfortunately we live in interesting times.

Brexit Britain will end up in many ways similar to Turkey. They're a former imperial power on the edge of Europe, they also have the low regulation economy that many Brexiteers yearn for and are also NATO members - things aren't working out too well them...

I'm generally in agreement with Linton.


The only things I would add is to highlight the uncertainty and the sentiment of market makers amd investors having a big affect in relative terms.


The post referendum initial (and impact to date) is that the sentiment for the economy had been negative as has the cooling of it's performance so interest rates have remained historically low and the pound has fallen relative to leading currencies. That has had a big impact on capital returns. There have also been impacts not associated with Brexit.


So my perception/guess will be that much will reflect how it all turns out. I cannot see any great benefits in the short term as there will be so much change that affects business, the economy in general and thus exchange rates and markets. Ignoring other effects these are maybe already reflected in markets so might be fairly neutral an impact.


I belive any benefit (there must be some and might be significant) will be longer term as things are readjusted and trade partners and alliances forged. I am not positive for those prospects overall and see the economy shrinking and trade deficit increasing.


So the pound's prospects do not look good to me either way. Economy and most business suffering apart from those with a global base. Another guess is that might affect dividends adversely but help to hold up many capital values.


However, all that is a big 'but' - but what if my crystal ball is wrong?

FatherAbraham wrote: »

Britons who have worked in other EEA countries, and who will not have reached the minimum threshold to qualify for state pensions in those countries by the time the UK leaves the EU, and therefore leaves the EEA, will suffer massive losses in their personal wealth - tens of thousands of pounds each.

UK could have done itself a huge favour by remaining in the EEA, but for reasons best known to herself Maybot thinks being like Norway's not good enough for Britain. Only being cold version of Turkey is good enough:(