Woodford Predictions

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  • OldMusicGuy
    OldMusicGuy Posts: 1,758 Forumite
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    edited 3 December 2017 at 12:37PM
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    You pays your money and takes your choice. I did ok out of his Equity Income fund but I sold up before the performance faltered (I got nervous a while back and went all cash, then realised the stupidity of trying to time the market ). None of these fund managers really know what is going to happen. Some just get lucky more than others. They make guesses that are based on a lot more research than most of us could ever carry out.

    As someone involved in the tech industry, I applauded his stance on the tech boom (I saw that from the inside). But whether he is right this time, we'll have to wait and see.
  • atush
    atush Posts: 18,726 Forumite
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    bostonerimus wrote: »
    Wow I'm shocked.....it shouldn't need some overpaid fund manager to tell anyone that we are in a bubble. This is obviously a nice little advertisement for Woodford in an effort to rationalize his recent poor performance and to convince some more punters to give him their money. I won't be buying anything he's selling.

    Didnt read the article, but have made money with Woodford over the years.
  • BLB53
    BLB53 Posts: 1,583 Forumite
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    Not many fund managers outperform the market over time...Woodford did it longer than most but now he has run out of luck. Another reason for investors to go for low cost index funds.
  • chrisgg
    chrisgg Posts: 68 Forumite
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    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...
  • bostonerimus
    bostonerimus Posts: 5,617 Forumite
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    chrisgg wrote: »
    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...

    Woodford could well be the "Joan Ginther" of fund managers.
    “So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
  • Prism
    Prism Posts: 3,803 Forumite
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    chrisgg wrote: »
    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...

    I'm not sure I would say exceptional. He has an annualised gain of 8.1% over the last 18 years which is ok but not great. His performance over the last 10 years seems poor to me. For his ability to predict the dot com crash it seems he didnt do very well during the financial crisis.
  • Superscrooge
    Superscrooge Posts: 1,171 Forumite
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    bostonerimus wrote: »
    Woodford could well be the "Joan Ginther" of fund managers.

    I bet I'm not the only one who had to google 'Joan Ginther!'
  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
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    Prism wrote: »
    it seems he didnt do very well during the financial crisis.

    The allshare lost around 27% near the end of 08, whereas his funds only dropped around 14% during the same period, better than most funds in the sector.
  • Prism
    Prism Posts: 3,803 Forumite
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    talexuser wrote: »
    The allshare lost around 27% near the end of 08, whereas his funds only dropped around 14% during the same period, better than most funds in the sector.
    Its his ability to recover after that that seems disappointing. When in 2009 everthing was on the way back up fairly dramatically his funds were only slightly. So you could say a Woodford fund is one to hold when things are going bad but not during a recovery or bull market.
  • JohnRo
    JohnRo Posts: 2,887 Forumite
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    The problem then, assuming that's correct, is knowing when things are going bad before things are going bad which means holding when markets are going well.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
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