Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses
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You do not have to invest the cash that you put into your ISA immediately so you can use up your allowance for this tax year, but invest next week or next month!SalarySlave wrote: »I am concerned, I have been putting more and more cash in as the market has been falling. I am running out of cash to invest and worried we haven't hit the bottom yet. Tomorrow will be the last day to finish my ISA allowance off and I will likely use it.
I always get myself into a bit of a sweat during the falls, but I always hold on too. I am in no rush for the money anytime soon, so I have the benefit of time to wait for a recovery. It just sucks seeing it fall from such a high.0 -
I'm concerned at some of the Tech company valuations. I think fatalities involving self driving cars are inevitable which will lead to a loss in confidence and a fall from lofty valuations.
But generally I feel more diversified, so safer, holding a cheap world tracker than pounds sterling looking at the muppets in charge of it.“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair0 -
Where did this concern come from? I know there has been a bit of a correction over the last month or so, but has anything major happened in the last few days that I've missed to think markets are on the brink of a big drop?0
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A little trade war:Where did this concern come from? I know there has been a bit of a correction over the last month or so, but has anything major happened in the last few days that I've missed to think markets are on the brink of a big drop?
https://www.ft.com/content/220edd66-37dd-11e8-8b98-2f31af407cc80 -
When valuations start to look a bit stretched, it doesn't take much to rattle confidence, and there are a few headwinds around at present.
Personally would welcome a significant correction, I hopefully have a lot of years of significant pension contributions ahead of me.0 -
elephantrosie wrote: »yes i am.
my shares have plummeted even with the correction.
i will hold off and invest after the market crash.
How will you know when that is?
You can't time the market.0 -
Crashes are only observable with hindsight. But ElephantRosie is only proposing to invest with hindsight. So, that works, doesn't it?ValiantSon wrote: »elephantrosie wrote: »i will hold off and invest after the market crash.
How will you know when that is?
You can't time the market.
You might define a crash as, say, a drop in value of 25% from some previous value within a particular timeframe. Or pick from a number of other definitions that people might use. But choosing to hold off and not invest until after you see a 'crash' is certainly something you can do. There will always be a crash at *some* point.
You won't necessarily get a better price than today and you won't necessarily avoid another crash or market drop straight after you invest. But a policy of holding off until you see a particular event, is not something you need foresight to achieve. One can just keep observing and then act with hindsight, no?0 -
bowlhead99 wrote: »Crashes are only observable with hindsight. But ElephantRosie is only proposing to invest with hindsight. So, that works, doesn't it?
You might define a crash as, say, a drop in value of 25% from some previous value within a particular timeframe. Or pick from a number of other definitions that people might use. But choosing to hold off and not invest until after you see a 'crash' is certainly something you can do. There will always be a crash at *some* point.
You won't necessarily get a better price than today and you won't necessarily avoid another crash or market drop straight after you invest. But a policy of holding off until you see a particular event, is not something you need foresight to achieve. One can just keep observing and then act with hindsight, no?
The problem is that "Investing after the crash" isn't specific at all.
What is a crash? A 10%, 20% 50% reduction? In which market? Will the investment be made as soon as the threshold is passed even if further reductions appear likely? Or are you looking for the shoots of recovery to appear in which case the market may have recovered back past your threshold.
Then again your threshold could be just the start of a longer decline.
Its all far too woolly and the market far too unpredictable for me.0 -
Anyone concerned?
Been there before and will go through it again.
50% losses would make it worse than both the dot.com crash and the global financial crisis. Which itself was similar to the 1930s depression. So, you are predicting another 1 in 100 year event (making it 3 in 100 years and 2 in the last 10)
And a recession would be unlikely to create 50% drops in the market. You are talking depression levels for the markets to fall back like that unless there are other events involved (dot.com wasnt just dot.com. It was a string of events over a period of multiple years)
Bearing in mind that markets are already down around 10%, predicting a further 50% puts it at a level that was last seen in the South Sea Bubble of 1769.I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.0 -
No. I have enough cash/near cash to last at least 10 years and my investments are not going to be touched for 10 to 15 years.0
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