Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses

Options
12357…22

Comments

  • talexuser
    talexuser Posts: 3,499 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary
    Options
    Well Buffet has well over 100 B I L L I O N in cash, depending on which report you read is around 25% of the worth of Hathaway, so he thinks stuff is too overvalued to buy just now - unless he spends it all tomorrow on some mega deal!
  • Bravepants
    Bravepants Posts: 1,503 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper Photogenic
    Options
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    When did you start investing?

    Well I was only born yesterday.
    If you want to be rich, live like you're poor; if you want to be poor, live like you're rich.
  • sevenhills
    sevenhills Posts: 5,903 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post
    Options
    A Labour Government would be a shock to the system. Some construction company shares declined after the referendum, knowing how much immigration will change over the next few years will give them time to plan.
    Labour are very slight favourites to win the next election, I find a Labour win difficult to imagine.
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035 Forumite
    First Post Photogenic Combo Breaker First Anniversary
    Options
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Whose money are the hedgefund managers using though?


    Yours, the hot money effect means they can use the money right off the printing presses.

    :money:

    RYSOACm.png
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Name Dropper Photogenic First Anniversary First Post
    Options
    sabretoothtigger wrote: »
    Yours, the hot money effect means they can use the money right off the printing presses.

    Other investors have their own money too. Preferring to keep their affairs quiet. :)
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
    First Anniversary Name Dropper First Post Photogenic
    Options
    sevenhills wrote: »
    A Labour Government would be a shock to the system. Some construction company shares declined after the referendum and then bounced back over teh next few weeks as it became clear the kneejerk drop was foolish. [STRIKE] knowing[/STRIKE] guessing how much immigration will change over the next few years will [STRIKE]give them time to plan[/STRIKE] no doubt lead to poor decisions.

    Changed your typos for you :D
  • Matthew2018
    Matthew2018 Posts: 51 Forumite
    Options
    Yes I was concerned.

    I have, in the last few days, moved out of investments completely and moved into cash. When I have time to catch my breath I will also move some cash into precious metals.

    I may be wrong and the coming crash will not be for a few years, if ever. After all, unlike markets before, this already long, bull run could just keep on going. If I am wrong I will have missed out on any future increases in the market.

    However, if I am right then my cash giving me only a little more than 1% interest easily beats a downturn of 5% in the markets.

    If you think that there will be a serious downturn in the markets, why would you just stand there and watch your personal investments go the same way.
  • dunstonh
    dunstonh Posts: 116,475 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Anniversary First Post Combo Breaker
    Options
    I have, in the last few days, moved out of investments completely and moved into cash.

    A typical stockmarket crash is around 20-25%. We are currently down around 10%. So, you are pulling out after half a typical crash.

    Lets say we do get to crash territory. When will you go back in again? it wont be at bottom as you wont know when that is. There is usually a quick bounce from the bottom (or a double dip). So, you will probably go back in after it has recovered half its loss.
    If you think that there will be a serious downturn in the markets, why would you just stand there and watch your personal investments go the same way.

    Punching through it usually results in better returns than trying to guess the market. There has been a crash coming since 2012. We had one in 2015 but it recovered quickly. Crashes are always coming and you cant time them. So, whats the point of pulling out and getting it wrong most of the time?
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
  • dividendhero
    dividendhero Posts: 2,417 Forumite
    Options
    sevenhills wrote: »
    A Labour Government would be a shock to the system. Some construction company shares declined after the referendum, knowing how much immigration will change over the next few years will give them time to plan.
    Labour are very slight favourites to win the next election, I find a Labour win difficult to imagine.

    Brexit is being seized by both the left of Labour and Right of the Tories, whichever party wins the next election it will be extremist one way or another - quite a pity for the 80% of the UK who's centrist in their views:(
  • Glen_Clark
    Glen_Clark Posts: 4,397 Forumite
    edited 5 April 2018 at 7:41AM
    Options
    sevenhills wrote: »
    A Labour Government would be a shock to the system. Some construction company shares declined after the referendum, knowing how much immigration will change over the next few years will give them time to plan.
    Labour are very slight favourites to win the next election, I find a Labour win difficult to imagine.

    Much of the media is owned by £billionaires living in tax havens under threat from Jeremy Corbyn. So they have made out the prospect of a Labour Government to be far worse than it is. :)
    But there is always something to worry about.
    I'm more concerned about the damage thats being done at the moment, like Brexit, being held to ransom by the DUP, unsubstantiated allegations against Putin, and trade war with China. Since we now have less chance of their support to deal with North Korea, we are hearing calls for even more military spending - already the highest in Europe last time I looked.:(
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
This discussion has been closed.
★ ★ ★ Meet your Ambassadors

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 343.4K Banking & Borrowing
  • 250.2K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 449.8K Spending & Discounts
  • 235.5K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 608.4K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 173.2K Life & Family
  • 248.1K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 15.9K Discuss & Feedback
  • 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards