Nationwide Figures

tradetime

mizzbiz wrote: »

Possibly the psychic one......
smarta
Originally Posted by tradetime
Currently listed on my calendar as 7am Tuesday 1st July

Cute.
Economic News Calendar

Dan:_4

Expect another 2.5% drop because they want to put pressure on BoE to cut interest rates.

Generali

Dan: wrote: »

Expect another 2.5% drop because they want to put pressure on BoE to cut interest rates.

If it is down 2.5% then that's -7.6% YoY and -4.2% using a rolling 3 month average. My guess is 3-3.5%. As mortgage approvals are collapsing, a greater proportion of sales are likely to be forced or highly motivated pushing average prices down further.

I'm interested in the idea that Nationwide want to put pressure on the BoE to cut rates. Are you suggesting the figures are manipulated? If so do you think that house prices are really rising/flat but Nationwide senior management or a cabal of analysts feel that they benefit in some way by interest rates being cut?

Sounds like a wild conspiracy theory to me but you never know I suppose. After all, didn't JFK have Monroe shot because he caught her at it with a Cuban on the Grassy Knoll thus proving the Americans never went to the moon and it was all the Freemasons, the Catholics and the Jewish bankers? I'm sure that was it.

m00m00

there's virtually no relation between mortgage rates and BOE rates anyway at the moment, other than those which explicitly track the BOE rates with an ever increasing spread.

Dan:_4

Generali wrote: »

If it is down 2.5% then that's -7.6% YoY and -4.2% using a rolling 3 month average. My guess is 3-3.5%. As mortgage approvals are collapsing, a greater proportion of sales are likely to be forced or highly motivated pushing average prices down further.

I'm interested in the idea that Nationwide want to put pressure on the BoE to cut rates. Are you suggesting the figures are manipulated? If so do you think that house prices are really rising/flat but Nationwide senior management or a cabal of analysts feel that they benefit in some way by interest rates being cut?

Sounds like a wild conspiracy theory to me but you never know I suppose. After all, didn't JFK have Monroe shot because he caught her at it with a Cuban on the Grassy Knoll thus proving the Americans never went to the moon and it was all the Freemasons, the Catholics and the Jewish bankers? I'm sure that was it.

Remember early March - everyone was predicting that BoE would hold rates in March. Then on the Tuesday Halifax announce that prices have fallen 2.5% - On Wednesday every newspaper and News Report were banging on about the biggest falls since 1992 and on Thursday BoE cut rates.

Dan:_4

m00m00 wrote: »

there's virtually no relation between mortgage rates and BOE rates anyway at the moment, other than those which explicitly track the BOE rates with an ever increasing spread.

Very true. They will have no effect - but it might restore a bit of confidence to the joe public (not MSE forum users of course)

Generali

Dan: wrote: »

Remember early March - everyone was predicting that BoE would hold rates in March. Then on the Tuesday Halifax announce that prices have fallen 2.5% - On Wednesday every newspaper and News Report were banging on about the biggest falls since 1992 and on Thursday BoE cut rates.

So are you implying that house prices didn't really fall by that amount in March (seasonally adjusted)? Do you think that the BoE would aim for house price stability in the face of possible falls having not done so as prices rose?

Perhaps I'm being a bit thick (not for the first time!) but I think you need to make your point a little more explicitly for me to get it.

FraudBuster

I read in the Daily [strike]Mail[/strike] Express that the average house price will [strike]fall[/strike] rise 60% by September 2010 - Im now planning a BTL empire!

tradetime

Dan: wrote: »

Expect another 2.5% drop because they want to put pressure on BoE to cut interest rates.

I think there sre two chances of the BOE cutting rates at the next meeting. Slim and None, and Slim's out of town.

Dan:_4

Generali wrote: »

So are you implying that house prices didn't really fall by that amount in March (seasonally adjusted)? Do you think that the BoE would aim for house price stability in the face of possible falls having not done so as prices rose?

Yes. It was one region that made the average house price fall by 2.5%. All other regions had very modest falls that month (1 or 2 even had slight rises) but the media had a field day over it.

the timing was brilliant.