There will be NO CRASH - think about

brit1234

His argument is complete tosh. The simple fact is that prices will come down to what the bank lends and that is getting smaller by the day.

johnycoldears

I know the point has already been made but it's worth repeating.

House prices are set at the margins i.e by people who do sell their houses, whether by choice, death, repossession.. whatever.
I bought my house 14 years ago for £100k. I have never had any desire to sell it so by the poster's logic it must still be worth £100k, since obviously the going rate for actual sales in the market has no bearing on the worth of my house.
Just as in a rising market it is the sale price acheived by the minority selling their house that determines the value of property for the majority of us who are not selling.

Just as a side line, a relative of mine owns an immaculate Austin Healey. At the peak of the classic car boom it was worth £35k it is now worth less than £20k . Nothing has changed, the car is still immaculate, there are very few Austin Healy owners who could be categorised as forced sellers, and they are not making any more Austin Healeys. All that has happened is that the demand for overpriced classic cars has diminished and prices have fallen accordingly.

Whilst bank lending policy and consumer sentiment remain low house prices will also continue to fall, and with the way the UK economy is heading this will continue for along time yet.

neverdespairgirl

jamescredmond wrote: »

you will bleat like the new-born lamb as prices falleth faster than the humming-bird's wing.

even as the roses bloometh over the hills of Judaea?

Paul_N_4

skint2008 wrote: »

why would Mr 3 bed semi at no 22 (not desperate to sell) with a £150K mortgage slash his asking price by £75K to "better" himself on a 4 bed ?

are we saying that mr 4 bed (not desperate for a sale either) thinks "hey i'll reduce my asking price by 50% too", or wait again will he think "nah, I'll wait for a more sensible price" ?

I think the fundamental flaw in your argument is that the average mortgage size is not £150,000. It may be the RECENT average size of a mortgage, but it certainly isn't the average overall.

You are forgetting the overwhelming majority of home owners that have mortgages much, much smaller than this who, even with 20-30% falls in house prices, won't feel the effects if they wish to sell. And then add to this the home owners that don't even have mortgages who are looking to sell.

The amount of people you're talking about (those that bought recently with a $150,000 mortgage), who may find themselves in negative equity or see their equity badly eroded, is a very small proportion of overall home owners. And you're right, they probably won't sell up. But their numbers are so small its insignificant anyway.

The financial status of most home owners is uneffected by falling house prices, and thus selling will continue. As a first hand example (and I'm sure many more on this board will testify) there appears no slowing of homes coming onto the market, which kind of negates your point.

The_Prince_3

skint2008 wrote: »

simple really

most sellers put their house up for sale to either (1) move up the ladder or (2) to down size

ask yourself, would you a non desperate seller drop your asking price 40% to achieve a sale, if you did would your seller do the same - is he that desperate to downsize he'll accept tens of thousands lower than he wants?

there will be a relatively small reduction (due to the CC) and things will then level out.

to sum up if you DONT NEED TO sell then prices wont drop, far more non desperate sellers than ones that have no choice - far, far, far more

A ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Ha ha ha hah ha hah ha ha ha oooowwww ha ha ha ha eeee ooowww a hah aha ha ha ha ..

...excuse me while I wring out my trousers.

Your post is hilarious. There will be no crash - you heard it here first folks!

bo_drinker

The whole market is not being dragged to its knees fast enough on here, more threads needed to rip it down where it needs to be then maybe folk will be pleased with the out come. Come on get it down. Then you can all bleat about you noticed how prices are on the up again, doh missed again. Will have to give bedsit land a quick mucking out and stay put. Now where did you put the dust bin.

The_Prince_3

johnycoldears wrote: »

I know the point has already been made but it's worth repeating.

House prices are set at the margins i.e by people who do sell their houses, whether by choice, death, repossession.. whatever.
I bought my house 14 years ago for £100k. I have never had any desire to sell it so by the poster's logic it must still be worth £100k, since obviously the going rate for actual sales in the market has no bearing on the worth of my house.
Just as in a rising market it is the sale price acheived by the minority selling their house that determines the value of property for the majority of us who are not selling.

Just as a side line, a relative of mine owns an immaculate Austin Healey. At the peak of the classic car boom it was worth £35k it is now worth less than £20k . Nothing has changed, the car is still immaculate, there are very few Austin Healy owners who could be categorised as forced sellers, and they are not making any more Austin Healeys. All that has happened is that the demand for overpriced classic cars has diminished and prices have fallen accordingly.

Whilst bank lending policy and consumer sentiment remain low house prices will also continue to fall, and with the way the UK economy is heading this will continue for along time yet.

Correct. Prices are set at the margins.

If a 3-bed semi is sold on Main Street for 100k after a forced sale/repo and an identical house next door is up at the 'market value' of 200k ... who exactly is going to pay 200k for it?

All 3-bed semi's on that street become much nearer to 100k in their value than 200k.

It's the mirror-image/opposite of the way it worked on the way up. In a booming market the reverse happened.

chopperharris

I thought all this price crash cwap was to be in the section for same.

jamescredmond

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

even as the roses bloometh over the hills of Judaea?

yea, verily. even as the green shoots of recovery pusheth through and much wailing and gnashing of teeth as pickles posteth ever-more posts that are abominations in the sight of the Lord. oh yea. for sureth.

neverdespairgirl

jamescredmond wrote: »

yea, verily. even as the green shoots of recovery pusheth through and much wailing and gnashing of teeth as pickles posteth ever-more posts that are abominations in the sight of the Lord. oh yea. for sureth.

And the Broon-ites smited the doom-sayers, and looked upon their work, and saw that it was good.

But verily, I say unto you, "vanity, vanity, vanity, all is vanity", said the preacher, "vanity and vexation of spirit, and there is nothing new under the sun".

And house prices goeth down, even as the rivers from the hills of Jerusalem proceedeth to the sea, despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth by Broon, Paragon, and the Singing Pig (the animal that is unclean, and an abomination in the sight of the Lord).