How far do you think the UK average property will slide down too?

mitchaa

Using nationwide house price data, we had a peak in the housing market in October 2007 where the average price of a UK home was £186,044.
At the end of May 2008 this has slipped down to £173,583 which relates to a 6.7% fall.

The question is how far do you think they will fall before either stagnating or rising again? There are a lot of threads on this and a lot of opinions, so it would be good to see in a poll on how far they are likely to fall.

Remember this is an average price UK poll

As soon as we see consecutive nationwide rises, i'll bring this thread alive again to see how we all fared, a little competition;)

My personal opinion is somewhere in the region of £140-£145k, what are your predictions??

Deadman_2

We'll be back to 2002 levels by 2010.

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

Using nationwide house price data, we had a peak in the housing market in October 2007 where the average price of a UK home was £186,044.

My guess would be < £25,000 by 2012 (or even sooner) - but everyone knows I'm an extreme gloom merchant.

oldMcDonald

I originally thought 10-15%. I lurked over on HPC / GHPC and found the amounts they were predicting in some cases (eg 50 - 75%) to be quite silly.

Now I'm not so sure.

I don't think they will go that low as it is one hell of a drop. At the moment a lot of FTBs are no longer able to buy - the availability of 100%-plus mortgages for so long has left saving for a deposit as a bizarre concept to a lot of younger FTBs I know! The availability of mortgages is going to have to make a huge difference, and the falls so far are happening a lot faster than I thought they would.

I can remember the last crash, I was 20 in 1990 and bought in 1994. When we sold in 1996, prices locally had dropped 30% ish from peek. The money flow globally has dried up, the so-called 'Credit Crunch', and I cannot see how in the forseable future, even if money is flowing freely again, banks will be quite so eager to lend huge multiples and 125% mortgages.

I still don't hold with the idea of 50 -75%, although in my situation that would be great news, but I am thinking maybe 20 - 25% from peek nationally now (local to me I am expecting a comfortable 30% as wages are well below average yet house prices are pretty close to national average)

I would go with average house price at bottom to be around £143K

Zammo

A year ago I'd have said 25%. I now think that's a very conservative estimate. We're now looking at 50% easy. The pace at which prices are dropping at the moment are phenomenal and that's even without a recession. It's only going to accelerate further when unemployment begins to rise.

JonnyBravo

D'oh!

You've hidden who's voted for what.
We need to be able to see who voted for what!

For the record I'm one of several who seem to have plumped for the 135-145k option.

oldMcDonald

*OT post, sorry.

JonnyBravo, why don't you have a piccy of JB as your avator? I imagine you to look like him and will be soooo disapointed if you are female:)

amcluesent

I'm factoring in ~30% decline from the peak on average. The NE will be worst, SW will be better and new build flats in northern towns will be much harder hit and abandoned to DSS etc. Location, location, location! You'll need to account for White Flight from the towns surrendered to Mohammedans and those areas where unemployment soars.

As I've said before, if you expect much worse/better, then try you luck on the spread-bet that used National House Price index and put your money where your mouth is!

danrees

oldMcDonald wrote: »

I originally thought 10-15%. I lurked over on HPC / GHPC and found the amounts they were predicting in some cases (eg 50 - 75%) to be quite silly.

Now I'm not so sure.

I don't think they will go that low as it is one hell of a drop. At the moment a lot of FTBs are no longer able to buy - the availability of 100%-plus mortgages for so long has left saving for a deposit as a bizarre concept to a lot of younger FTBs I know! The availability of mortgages is going to have to make a huge difference, and the falls so far are happening a lot faster than I thought they would.

I can remember the last crash, I was 20 in 1990 and bought in 1994. When we sold in 1996, prices locally had dropped 30% ish from peek. The money flow globally has dried up, the so-called 'Credit Crunch', and I cannot see how in the forseable future, even if money is flowing freely again, banks will be quite so eager to lend huge multiples and 125% mortgages.

I still don't hold with the idea of 50 -75%, although in my situation that would be great news, but I am thinking maybe 20 - 25% from peek nationally now (local to me I am expecting a comfortable 30% as wages are well below average yet house prices are pretty close to national average)

I would go with average house price at bottom to be around £143K

Prices have already fallen 7% since the peak in September 2007. It is only in the past two months that the media has even noticed this. Prices will be down 15% at least from September 2007 by December 2008, easily, with further falls to come.

Incisor

There is some historic average, like 3.25 times average salaries, which house prices apparently always revert to. Interest rates are now quite low, despite rises, compared to the whole of the postwar period, so I would say it would land in around the 3.6 to 4.2 times region.

Pobby

I somehow think we could be looking at 40% drops. Even that could be conservative.