" Prices wont fall in my area" - why do some say this?

m00m00

Conrad wrote: »

I love the post, especially as I've recently discovered psychology, indeed I was wondering only this morning which book to buy next, there are so many.

Your anchoring bias minds me of another concept the "Reality Tunnel", which describes the sense that each of us has our own version of reality, yet each of us consider ours to be true reality despite the fact reality varies widely from person to person.

In terms of house price anchoring, I agree people's version of reality is that prices only go up, especially in thier area, what with "lack of supply, and all those Poles". They mentally filter out anything that doesn't underpin this reality tunnel, yet they use any fragment that might support thier reality tunnel to do a lot of heavy lifting. The prover proves what the thinker thinks.

I can probably point you in the direction of a few psychology texts, depending on your interests/existing knowledge.

it's eeek 15 years since I got my MSc now, but I think I can still remember a few bits

BenL

When I sa the the title i thought you must have been sat near me this morning when the 2 guys opposite were talking about how their houses will not decrease by a lot.

In someways I do agree with them though as we are in Harrogate. I don't own here but it is a sought after place to live and would not mind if it was more affordable.

It also appears to be one of a few places in the north of England where southerners would consider to live so this keeps house prices a little higher than usual due to the money flowing up the country from house sales in London and the south.

The bottom end of the market though is still hit as ftb's can't aford to start to live here and everyone competes for the 4, 5 and 6 bed houses.

Selling a 2 bed in London gets a nice big house here so it is propped up.

Little pockets happen everywhere though i guess.

codger

. . . and with housing, it's even worse (re: post purchase justification / post purchase remorse etc).

Because a house isn't a purchase.

Not unless you've a wodge of cash to hand over the table (as a buyer once did with us: the entire amount, tipped out of a black bag. He was a bookmaker, by the way: put me off betting on anything ever since. . .)

Otherwise, a house is a seemingly infite succession of monthly payments that become more affordable as a family's income rises except when it's not the income that goes up but the mortgage rate, or when what is still owed every month cumulatively adds up to more and more in respect of an acquisition becoming of less and less financial worth.

And what can happen then is something even deeper than the above behavioural phenomena: a closing of the door against the gnawing of an anxiety that has within it the potential to intensify to despair.

For many, saying it's all OK in my area is no different to saying it's all OK in this particular bit of the wide and empty ocean in which I'm currently bobbing. I know, with absolute certainty, that a ship will be coming along soon. Because if I didn't cling to that belief, the only alternative is to admit I'm sinking fast.

That's why this subject -- home ownership -- is so important to the actual life and the actual soul of so many.

And why it's been so obscene in recent times that it's come to be regarded as nothing other than a get-rich-quick commodity by a fortunate few.

:sad:

* Completely O/T I know, but. . . Why would anyone want to watch a programme about -- still less, actually apply for a job with -- the half-wit who created the Amstrad eMailer? I knew UK business had dumbed down but it wasn't until suffering through five minutes of something called "The Apprentice" that I came to appreciate just how bad things have got here.

codger

Somewhat out of date, but here's the HPI regional spread:

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpireportapril2008.pdf

ixwood

tradetime wrote: »

..

Personally I think London will hold up better than most of the rest of the country.

Personally I think London is screwed.

There's a lot of crazily overpriced property. And (greater) fools.

IMHO of course.

PS Bet London, and "Central" especially is the home to the vast majority of the"Not around here brigade". Also agree that's a large part of the continued rises. A double bubble!

neverdespairgirl

ixwood wrote: »

PS Bet London, and "Central" especially is the home to the vast majority of the"Not around here brigade". Also agree that's a large part of the continued rises. A double bubble!

I live in central London, and is is round here (-:

dopester

BenL... as per the theme of this very thread, don't you think you're also guilty of making big presumptions of "prices won't fall in my area" ???

I don't really know Harrogate, so maybe there is something extra special about the place, but I've just checked property there in Rightmove and would question your logic.

BenL wrote: »

When I sa the the title i thought you must have been sat near me this morning when the 2 guys opposite were talking about how their houses will not decrease by a lot.

In someways I do agree with them though as we are in Harrogate. I don't own here but it is a sought after place to live and would not mind if it was more affordable.

???
There are many "sought after" places to live in England. If being in a desirable place to live alone was enough to stop a house price crash, I doubt there would have even been any in the past.

It also appears to be one of a few places in the north of England where southerners would consider to live so this keeps house prices a little higher than usual due to the money flowing up the country from house sales in London and the south.

?!?!?!?!
There are many "sought after" places to live in England. Just because they are sought after doesn't make them affordable post credit-crunch lending.

Also Harrogate is around 210 miles away from London according to Google Earth.

I've got great difficulty understanding why Harrogate would be such an automatic magnet to "Southerners" and Londoners to buy a new house. Care to give a reason or two?

And you're suggesting Harrogate is already getting an influx of Londoners (ect) coming up to live. My bet would be prices are high in Harrogate, as they are where I live, due to sellers not yet fully accepting the new reality.

The bottom end of the market though is still hit as ftb's can't aford to start to live here and everyone competes for the 4, 5 and 6 bed houses.

Selling a 2 bed in London gets a nice big house here so it is propped up.

???
Selling a 2 bed in London (if you could at sort of current asking prices) would probably get you a plush house where I live as well - one of the wealthiest areas of the North - or many other areas of England. I just can't see why Harrogate should be the big draw to all the Southerners and Londoners who are desperate to move up North.

Little pockets happen everywhere though i guess.

???
Maybe they do, but I'm not presuming my area is one of them on what would seem to be very fluffy logic.

PasturesNew

It's dead posh in Harrogate I see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-9918168.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

moanymoany

PasturesNew wrote: »

It's dead posh in Harrogate I see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-9918168.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

I love the way they call it a 'one bedroomed bungalow', it's a caravan, well here in the south it's what we call a caravan.

Harrogate is very posh. Where we are hoping to buy considers itself one of these sought after 'protected' areas as it is a retirement ghetto. Most sales are probate or 'going into a home' or 'gone over to the other side' sales. The people selling have quite rigid and restrictive ideas.

A distant family member has a probate sale going on in Winchester - nice area, sought after, or so I'm told. It has been on the market for over a year. It is in need of 'doing up' but a 'done up' price was put on it. A fellow inheritor refused to reduce the price, having refused to have a reasonable price put on it in the first place.

'But I need the money' came the whine! Meantime it sits empty.

LilacPixie

I personally think that those areas with a reasonable average house price in comparison with average salaries will not suffer as much as those areas that were relying on the self cert, 5X income multiple 125% mortgages that no longer exist.

27k for a caravan :eek: my 2 bed flat was only 31k in 2004.