Statement of intent

StuartGMC

Jonbvn wrote: »

Therein lies the reason for the recent good performance. My oil stocks have been going big guns this year, keeping my overall portfolio in +ve territory. However, some people (e.g. Soros) are saying that oil as a commodity is a bubble. What happens to the oil co. stocks when the bubble bursts? Interestingly, on the way up there was a significant lag between the commodity and the oil co. stocks.



The general consensus on MSE is that H&L offer the best deal (cheapest fees).

Jonbvn
My work overlaps with the Oil & Gas sector.... but despite that, I've tended not to invest direct in the equities but for obvious reasons it is one area I regularly watch for on Bloomberg etc. Commodities are being hit by speculation as you note, but, fundamentally there is not enough refining capacity for diesel and it will be very interesting to see what happens mid-summer when normally the refineries are switching to produce heating oil for the winter which uses the same feedstock. (My 3.0 petrol may start to look economic if diesel prices further separate from unleaded...). They could push back the requirements for low sulphur which has again meant limitation on the supply to market, but doing so is not very "green".

The IOC (international oil companies) no longer have such a market hold and have to develop more difficult fields (ultradeep water, arctic, oil sands etc) whereas NOC (national oil cos) can selectively choose the easier fields. With world demand being so high only a massive reduction in use will lead to a drop, or a stronger US$ so speculators move back to currencies.

I guess you'll be top-slicing presently?

Funadamentally, like food and water, we can do little to reduce our demand for fuel once we have pared down to that needed for commuting to work to pay for the fuel, food and energy we need (and little things like the mortgage!) and we've stopped going anywhere for leisure... fancy a "virtual holiday" by 2020 - you stay home and view a web cam of where you'd like to be in the world if only you could afford to get there :eek:

I think we'll see £1.50 a litre of unleaded by November although that is a 28% rise over what I paid this morning. I should plot out the prices from the petrolprice.com e-mails I ahve saved over some time I guess to see if this is likely....

H&L comment noted - I was with iii before using MSE and this was a passing comment. I note the review on http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/isa-discounts so will look carefully, vs the initial charge and management charge (plus requirements for minimum investment levels which have now dropped as low as £20 per month per fund), but, so far I've been happy with iii for the ISAs of me and my OH.

Thanks for your interest

StuartGMC

abouttimetoo wrote: »

Hi StuartGMC

Thanks for a really interesting thread; I can certainly relate to your comments about how once you got your spreadsheet pinned down you could see what the situation was and then do more than 'simple overpaying',

abouttimetoo - It is very interesting to note that this is exactly the full detail needed to give a good recommendation upon review, yet I wonder how many people really have it fully detailed or work much of it based on estimation? The spreadsheet is just a tool, but, a very empowering one!

Actually, I say I've got my outgoings sorted out but I need to get my act together with British Gas.

I hope you have data as kWhr to do a genuine assessment online? Maybe you can drop the thermostats down a lot when leaving at the start of the week and turn off the hot water heating (just trip it on as soon as you get in on return). You may be spending money just heating water 5 days a week which then cools down again...

Good luck with all your plans, you really sound like you’ve got a firm grip on things.

Yes, but is it a firm grip on a well secured rope; if not me and the rope will be heading south together:rolleyes:

Thanks and good luck

StuartGMC

The earlier discussion on the performance of Stocks & Shares ISA Funds prompted me to review (thanks guys, that's what this forum is all about).

I've looked at the two UK based funds and decided that over the next two years there is likely to be little significant growth. So we're cutting the (small) loss on the worse performing Fund and will move that cash across the remaining UK one, that for Latin America (as above) and also into Neptune Russian and Greater Russian.

A good article on ft.com will explain why I think growth in Latin America and Russia, will be better than China and India in this two year period, having reviewed growth funds:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a706ab7a-236b-11dd-b214-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

However, this will mean our ISAs are more biased to the higher risk funds than now, but, at 43 yrs old, I think we have chance to cover for it should things go somewhat pear-shaped

I will continue to monitor closely and consider taking some profits from the high risk funds and place in the UK one. This top-slicing with the pound-averaging of monthly payment for units, I hope will work for us :idea:

Once the net cash position in offset is zero, we'll then also invest in Cash ISAs as already noted.

Don't think all is easy here; the annual salary review next month has just been deferred to end of the year due to employer's performance so no increase in income for a while. :mad:

However, it does remind me that my planning for mortgage etc back in the late stages of the (last) Recession was predicated on no pay rises and assumption of interest rates up to 5% above the then prevailing 8% rate :eek:

So, never assume you'll get a rise, then if you do, more of it can be saved as you are already living on the lower income basis. Do however, assume costs will always rise!

setmefree2

Hi

Thanks for the reference to the FT article. Russia is an interesting one. I'll have to look into that abit more. Sorry to hear about the (lack off) pay rise....it's gonna be a tough year or two:rolleyes: for all of us, me thinks, but all the more reason to kick the heck out of the mortgage:money:

StuartGMC

Yes,
I couldn't agree more, but, not yet changing my plans for the balance of offset, mortgage overpayment and ISAs in Funds. However, I'm always open to review and we could stop the ISAs short-term and pay mortgage at 200% monthly repayment, but that would miss chance to invest while things are cheap and as my OH said yesterday evening, not nearly so exciting as playing the markets :eek:

Decisions, decisions.....:rotfl:

Hang on for a bumpy ride for the next 18months

abouttimetoo

StuartGMC wrote: »

abouttimetoo - It is very interesting to note that this is exactly the full detail needed to give a good recommendation upon review, yet I wonder how many people really have it fully detailed or work much of it based on estimation? The spreadsheet is just a tool, but, a very empowering one!

I hope you have data as kWhr to do a genuine assessment online? Maybe you can drop the thermostats down a lot when leaving at the start of the week and turn off the hot water heating (just trip it on as soon as you get in on return). You may be spending money just heating water 5 days a week which then cools down again...

Yes, but is it a firm grip on a well secured rope; if not me and the rope will be heading south together:rolleyes:

Thanks and good luck

Hi StuartGMC Thanks for your comments, i totally agree with you regarding the fact that it is an empowering tool!

Regarding my gas, it is switched off during the week. I'm away Monday to Friday and not there much either on a Saturday and Sunday so I guess it's on c. 6 hours over the weekend. It's got me totally mystified and something is clearly wrong, I just need to find the time to get to the bottom of it :mad:

best wishes

StuartGMC

abouttimetoo wrote: »

Regarding my gas, it is switched off during the week. I'm away Monday to Friday and not there much either on a Saturday and Sunday so I guess it's on c. 6 hours over the weekend. It's got me totally mystified and something is clearly wrong, I just need to find the time to get to the bottom of it :mad:

How about reading your meters when you leave Monday and then again on return Friday before "turning on" again.This should show no usage (obviously) which may help with discussion with supplier?

Hope you resolve soon.

kassytbag

Thanks so much for the advice about open office i will look at it today !! wish i had your financial brain!!!! I'm hoping the spreadsheet will help me keep on top of everything!
thanks again

StuartGMC

Kassy
I have cleared personal data from the spreadsheet I use; just need to double-check this and then I can send it. It is in OpenOffice format by default, but I can also save as Excel (some graphs may not be perfect in the latter).

I'll drop you a PM once I've done that final check.

FYI: I created the spreadsheet long before I came across MSE, but I think it covers most aspects required to sort out the financial baseline.

StuartGMC

Well it's not a great prospect with high spend this month; main holiday costs to take out from offset savings, plus breakdown cover and the car insurance. As noted we bought bikes at 50% off this month as well on the principle that it's better to do so now than wait until winter and miss the exercise in the meantime.

Nothing catastrophic and still well in credit but I just hate seeing the offset impact on my spreadsheet cell entitled "Equivalent mortgage rate" which having sat around 2.2% will now rise to 3.6% once credit card bill arrives :mad:

However, I find the holiday is an essential need to destress from work and family benefit significantly too.

Cash will still be coming in of course, so savings will recover although I do need to do a thorough review on the "household" costs now with the increase in prices in the last Qtr. However, I have no intention of reducing either overpayments nor ISA contributions so savings will have to be found elsewhere