A clear, rational analysis of the future of housing prices

Generali

Graeme7777 wrote: »

Sorry if you were fooled by the title of this post! I am in no way qualified to offer such an analysis.

However, I would like to know what people find to be the best source of sensible analyses of the UK property market? Is it to be found on a particular property website or from a journalist in one of the daily newspapers.

There is so much conflicting information out there that it makes my head spin!

The Economist is probably your best bet. It's a brilliant journal - the best journalism in the English language IMO. The assume that the reader has intelligence but no specialist knowledge which is the best possible starting point for a non-technical article, I reckon.

They often write about the house market and most libraries take it if you don't want to pay for it.

FWIW, they've been saying that houses in the UK are too expensive to be able to justify by any rational means since about 2004.

fc123

tr3mor wrote: »

Except that newspapers have to make money. People will only buy newspapers if they agree with the headlines. You or I aren't making any money posting here.

Maybe that's oversimplified, but you get my point.

I'm practising. For the Life Plan R that commences in 15 years time:D

ManAtHome

Well who knows - wouldn't rule out yet more "intervention" from an economically illiterate government who need a short-term boost (2 years) and have a track record of selling out the future.

carolt

Generali wrote: »

The Economist is probably your best bet. It's a brilliant journal - the best journalism in the English language IMO. The assume that the reader has intelligence but no specialist knowledge which is the best possible starting point for a non-technical article, I reckon.

They often write about the house market and most libraries take it if you don't want to pay for it.

FWIW, they've been saying that houses in the UK are too expensive to be able to justify by any rational means since about 2004.

Not quite true. The Economist, about a year ago if I recall correctly, was predicting that the problems in the American economy/housing market were not very serious and it would all blow over soon.

I've always distrusted it since.

EdInvestor

Generali wrote: »

FWIW, they've been saying that houses in the UK are too expensive to be able to justify by any rational means since about 2004.

IMHO this makes it hard to recommend the Economist on UK property, as they predicted a crash years before it happened.Quite a few commentators have been too bearish too soon.

As mentioned, all property is local. The best way of studying your own market is probably to get to know a few estate agents and chat to them regularly about what's going on in terms of sales, prices etc. (They don't have much else to do at the moment!)

carolt

Yeah, like estate agents only ever tell the truth.... :rolleyes:

Are you for real??! :rotfl::rotfl:

Generali

EdInvestor wrote: »

IMHO this makes it hard to recommend the Economist on UK property, as they predicted a crash years before it happened.Quite a few commentators have been too bearish too soon.

They didn't predict a crash would be imminent. They merely pointed out that house prices in the Faroes, Botswana, UK, Australia, Spain and Ireland (amongst other places) had roughly doubled or more in 6 or 7 years and that meant that house prices were probably too high to be sustained indefinitely.

You seem to be very clued up EdInvestor. What's your take on prices? Do you think they're sustainable at this level in real (or nominal) terms or could they rise further?

My feeling is that house prices are way too high to be maintained at the current level for reasons economic, demographic and political.

merlinthehappypig

EdInvestor wrote: »

As mentioned, all property is local. The best way of studying your own market is probably to get to know a few estate agents and chat to them regularly about what's going on in terms of sales, prices etc. (They don't have much else to do at the moment!)

I'd agree with that.

Most agents we have spoken to recently are actually being pretty honest about the state of the market now and the future.

The same agents who were saying this was a temporary blip in November are now complaining that sellers won't heed their advice to cut prices.

fc123

EdInvestor wrote: »

As mentioned, all property is local. The best way of studying your own market is probably to get to know a few estate agents and chat to them regularly about what's going on in terms of sales, prices etc. (They don't have much else to do at the moment!)

I have had chats with a few recently, and 2 were really helpful.
Honest (in a chit chat way) and saying a lot of what is actually true (and not in their favour)...not just blaming the media and saying 'when things get back to normal' etc.

A cul de sac that is a good indicator for our house had a sold sign on RM. Really helpful EA, said that A; she was suprised at the price it got but they don't come up very often and then 'phoned me back with the Actual Sale price as it had completed last week. She offerred to find sold prices on any property if I gave her a call too as the Land Registry takes a while to log the figures.
She even agreed on the houses I had picked out as overpriced.

I remember all the street / house prices from 1996, when prices were stable, so just add on the percentage increase.

She even said that there are still a few serious buyers, though not many, and the timewasters (as she put it) have all gone...so making things simpler.

tomstickland

Spotted Rosie Millard here: http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/?&videoSourceID=1318209&flashURL=/feeds/skynews/latest/flash/zim_050608_1600.flv

Voice like sandpaper!