How much reduction would tempt you to buy now?

Davesnave

I would be OK with a drop of 10% if it was the right place. Reasons for this are simple:

We've seen plenty of properties & know how many 'suitable' ones there are!

I'm intending to live in it for 20 years, or until I leave it in a box, whichever is sooner.

Because of the type of property, I expect it to make some money for us, just as the present one has done.

The owner will probably know he/she has a good one-off and will price it accordingly.

However, what's nice about the current situation is feeling that we can step off the ladder without it costing us anything, so we don't have to grab something because it's 'almost right.'

Mind you, I'd still go in with a first offer at least 15% below. If you don't ask etc etc.....

dopester

LillyJ wrote: »

That may be so for people who have jobs that may be at risk, however there are some jobs that aren't at risk. I for one know that my partner will NEVER be made redundant, and we can afford the mortgage on his wage alone. My job is very secure, and not in any way related to finance (or as far removed as you can get). I also have good qualifications and would be able to find another job. Therefore the chances of him becoming sick AND being unable to work AND me losing a job AND being unable to find another one, is so small it isn't worth losing sleep over.
If rents go down then fine, but we won't be worse off than we are now.

Like I said some people are not in our position so it is based on circumstances of the buyer themselves.

I'm pleased for you (genuinely). I'm just wondering whether there will be an abundance of jobs to find if we enter a deep recession - and if there are still job opportunities to go round for those made redundant, whether the pay will meet what they have gotten used to - and perhaps more people competing for the same position.

That's the only reason I don't subscribe to purchasing a house now on the rent-to-mortgage formula as the rents are not guaranteed to continue strongly in a deep recession (or depression).

Seems to me the UK is really heading for the highest pay towards what you can provide by way of your educated intelligent mind (computing / law / accountancy ect) - instead of service/labour work where the squeeze might be the hardest - and the welfare state and public sector isn't immune from cuts either.

LillyJ

dopester wrote: »

I'm pleased for you (genuinely). I'm just wondering whether there will be an abundance of jobs to find if we enter a deep recession - and if there are still job opportunities to go round for those made redundant, whether the pay will meet what they have gotten used to - and perhaps more people competing for the same position.

That's the only reason I don't subscribe to purchasing a house now on the rent-to-mortgage formula as the rents are not guaranteed to continue strongly in a deep recession (or depression).

Seems to me the UK is really heading for the highest pay towards what you can provide by way of your educated intelligent mind (computing / law / accountancy ect) - instead of service/labour work where the squeeze might be the hardest - and the welfare state and public sector isn't immune from cuts either.

Luckily OH is a police officer and so he is immune from redundancy (set in law)! I do take your point that most people aren't in that situation though, especially as we can afford mortgage on his wage, which a lot of people can't. I do agree about service and labour work being squeezed hardest as well.

IveSeenTheLight

PasturesNew wrote: »

I might have. But as I'd be writing a cheque out for it, the competition might not look so good on paper. If they're not an STR too, the advising EA would put me at the top of the list as "can afford/no mortgage required/can move fast"

That's how you get the deals.

It's true you could get deals this way.

i would expect that before you realise the price drops you expect, that there will be competition back in the market

IveSeenTheLight

amcluesent wrote: »

For an perfectly presented ready to move into house in an excellent area, 25% off the peak would be temping.

For a 'with potential' house in iffy area (or a city-centre new build chipboard flat), then 40%+

Sadly, being old enough to remember 1988-1994, the starting position was that shoddy houses were overbought to be near the price of good properties. Of course, they then fell much further and faster.

Which area was this?

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

Given that I expect an avalanche of redundancies and a bleak employment outlook in many sectors, and there are desperate signs in some sectors, rents will fall when increasing numbers of people find they can't afford to pay - the rental market will be forced to adjust to the circumstances of the economic picture, or else landlords will find their properties empty.

And where will these people be staying?

dopester wrote: »

Rents might be holding up strong now, but I expect it to be temporary, as more and more people get squeezed and use up their buffer/safety money.

I can recall any significant drop in rent prices during the last "crash". Have you got any links for this?

dopester wrote: »

Reduction right now for my chosen type of property in area I want to live in? 75%.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Keep dreaming, or learn to live within your means.
You want a 75% drop for the type of property in the the location of your choice.
I think there may be a lot more people interested before you see this.

Taking the UK average, you want the uK average of circa 178,000 to be 45,000.
The "Real House Price Trend" is somewhere around 145,000.
This would indicate a need for the average prices to drop 22% to be in line with the "Real House Price Trend"

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Sorry still laughing at the 75% drop
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

IveSeenTheLight

gingin wrote: »

we have a 40 - 50% deposit ( for the last few years our saving mentality has been paying off the mortgage before we have even got it).

This is a good mindset and I applaud you for it.
I've seen many people on here quoting that they believe that as they are saving, when the bottom is in the market, they will have a 40,50, 60% deposit or even that they will have enough cash to be mortgage free.

I do wonder if a lot of this is dreams

The critical situation will depend on whether banks start lending again.
If they do, even with tighter lending criterial, you could see properties being bought and sold again when people have 10-15% deposit, long before you have your 40-50% deposit

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

And where will these people be staying?

In a downturn it's surprising how many changes people are prepared (forced) to make to ensure survival, warmth from the elements. What are the alternatives when you have no money?

In the 70s recession the people opposite my parents's house rented out their nice house and lived in a tent and caravans. Others took in a batch of lodgers. Others moved back in with their parents. Others rented but with multiple occupancy to keep their own costs down. Others squatted.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can recall any significant drop in rent prices during the last "crash". Have you got any links for this?

I don't really consider the last "crash" to have been particularly bad. The one we are entering is.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You want a 75% drop for the type of property in the the location of your choice.I think there may be a lot more people interested before you see this.

How many people have got the liquidity to buy? Even £50,000 plus is a big ask for many people to find in capital from their own savings. Whilst there is some wealth it's not enough to prop up the entire UK property market in a severe recession - and the bulk of the sheeple in this country are in debt.

Banks won't throw money at you even if prices drop 70%. Once substantial falls kick in... lending conditions get even stricter as banks get more fearful and they already have enough to worry about fearing money lent to buy will be worth less in a few months time if/when prices continue to fall. Only when the economy shows full signs of recovering will lending resume again, although very cautiously.

Have you got cash liquidity? Or is all your wealth tied in to some slave box which I can buy similar for a pittance from one of vast numbers of future auctions the banks will be holding from repossessions / forced sellers ?

Snooze

IveSeenTheLight wrote:

And where will these people be staying?

dopester wrote: »

In a downturn it's surprising how many changes people are prepared (forced) to make to ensure survival, warmth from the elements. What are the alternatives when you have no money?

In the 70s recession the people opposite my parents's house rented out their nice house and lived in a tent and caravans. Others took in a batch of lodgers. Others moved back in with their parents. Others rented but with multiple occupancy to keep their own costs down. Others squatted.

Agreed. The rents are already taking a big dump in my area (Leeds) if you look at rightmove and they're continuing to drop on a weekly basis. There are still way too many dreamers expecting £550 per month for 250sqft of space in city centre "crash pads" :rolleyes: where your kitchen, lounge and bedroom is the same room and about the size of the bathroom in yer average 3-bed semi. :rolleyes: They're now pricing them slightly more realistically at £350-375 per month but they're still not getting folks in.

Pretty much the same applies in other parts of Leeds too. Dreamers wanting £450 per month for a [strike]bedsit[/strike] "studio apartment" :rolleyes: where the decor hasn't seen a brush since the house was built and kitchen units out of 1950s council houses.

Just who are they trying to kid? :rolleyes:

Rob

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

In a downturn it's surprising how many changes people are prepared (forced) to make to ensure survival, warmth from the elements. What are the alternatives when you have no money?

In the 70s recession the people opposite my parents's house rented out their nice house and lived in a tent and caravans. Others took in a batch of lodgers. Others moved back in with their parents. Others rented but with multiple occupancy to keep their own costs down. Others squatted.

I don't really consider the last "crash" to have been particularly bad. The one we are entering is.

Is this a veil to say you don't have any facts?
You say "Others rented but with multiple occupancy to keep their own costs down", so does this signify the rents remained stable and the way people rented changed?
It would be good to see the rent rates as facts, not speculation

dopester wrote: »

How many people have got the liquidity to buy? Even £50,000 plus is a big ask for many people to find in capital from their own savings. Whilst there is some wealth it's not enough to prop up the entire UK property market in a severe recession - and the bulk of the sheeple in this country are in debt.

Agreed, not many "Joe Bloggs" will have liquid cash, some like yourself will. I wonder how many professional landlords are waiting in the wings.

My point was that the poster thought they would have a 40-50% deposit and I wondered if people with lestt of a deposit would step in when they have 10-15% deposit.

dopester wrote: »

Banks won't throw money at you even if prices drop 70%.

Prices wont drop 70%

dopester wrote: »

Have you got cash liquidity? Or is all your wealth tied in to some slave box which I can buy similar for a pittance from one of vast numbers of future auctions the banks will be holding from repossessions / forced sellers ?

I do have a substantial cash liquidity, bolstered by the fact that I rent out two properties that take in more rent than the mortgage.
I have not yet had any void periods (except a 2 week transition when a previous tenants left mid month) primarily because I carry out market research.
I'm thinking you are extremely lucky for the credit crunch to happen resulting in the old lending criteria being restored and to have a substantial deposit meaning mortgages will still be available to you

Just dont think prices will drop 70 or 75%