House price crash is here, say City banks.

fc123

Thanks for the explanation (goes along the lines of what my dad has been telling me but he makes it sound so complicated).................so Made nearer home when possible could be a good thing?

Just to ask a bit of a stupid Q but why is oil going up??...I understand the increased demand from China et al BUT if there is still enough to be taken from the ground why can't the owners of the oil just be happy to sell more volume? Or am I missing something here?

(But I read that we only have 30 yrs worth yet but may have been a scaremongering article)

We are going to be digging up our lawns to grow swedes and turnips (trad UK fayre) soon.

Thanks for taking the time to explain....have been out of Internet land last couple of days

fc123

Generali wrote: »

It is an if and IIRC, Goldmans were talking about oil going up to $200/barrel in about a year.

The thing is, things aren't static. What happens if oil prices rise? People buy smaller cars and buy English rather than NZ lamb. Holiday in Brighton rather than Benidorm and build nuclear reactors rather than oil burning power stations. Eventually that pushes the price of oil back down again.

It seems to me that the UK consumer is slowly being squeezed from all sides. Taxes are highish in historical terms and look likely to rise further as multinationals leave the UK for more business-friendly countries, petrol's expensive, food bills are rising rapidly (albeit from a very low base), houses cost the earth and I've not been mailed a 0% interest card offer in ages.

I really hope things work out well economically but I'm increasingly having serious doubts about the ability of the economy to weather the storm.

We could be heading back to a 1940's / 50's type lifestyle (apart from the nuclear power)...mmmm feeling a new trend coming on ........0nly TIC (tongue in cheek)

WTF?_2

fc123 wrote: »

Just to ask a bit of a stupid Q but why is oil going up??...I understand the increased demand from China et al BUT if there is still enough to be taken from the ground why can't the owners of the oil just be happy to sell more volume? Or am I missing something here?

There's a limited amount of the stuff that they can pump out of the ground and refine, demand is going up (emerging economies and new car owners in China and India) and they're actually having to use more of the stuff they drill themselves to meet their own energy needs.

Add to that a hell of a lot of money being pumped into the system from Central Banks on top of regular investment cash looking for a home .... and finding high returns in oil and food -> you also have a bit of a speculative bubble going on in oil - just like we had in housing. Let's pray it doesn't last seven or eight years, eh?

Alan_M_2

Generali wrote: »

I was chatting to a mate who works for a bank yesterday and he had some interesting insights into what's happening in banking right now.

The policy seems to be slash costs (they've fired some very brilliant people) and don't lose money (ie don't take risks).

I've had first hand experience of this in the last month.

Stock finance (also known as international trade finance on which we operate) is simply not being offered without ridiculous levels of security.

I took a couple of large orders last week that needed financing to cover the production and import stages......my bank manager was looking at me just like the guy from the Nationwide adds - "whaddya want me to do about it?".....I was just waiting for the "Gotta have a bit of bubbly for the shareholders" quote.

It seems banks have stopped their fundamental business at all levels, I am talking to crippled companies on a daily basis that are heamoraging employees......

It's not rosy out there, I understand there are problems but I'm looking at a horrible overreaction that's doing no one any good at all.

fc123

!!!!!!? wrote: »

There's a limited amount of the stuff that they can pump out of the ground and refine, demand is going up (emerging economies and new car owners in China and India) and they're actually having to use more of the stuff they drill themselves to meet their own energy needs.

Add to that a hell of a lot of money being pumped into the system from Central Banks on top of regular investment cash looking for a home .... and finding high returns in oil and food -> you also have a bit of a speculative bubble going on in oil - just like we had in housing. Let's pray it doesn't last seven or eight years, eh?

Gen may be able to confirm, but I'm sure I read Merryn Somerset Webb write about some Hedge Funds speculating on food and this was contributing to rising rice, wheat etc prices.
But this could change so much in our society.
Obviously, the obesity problems would be 'solved' as we are all restricted to 2000 cals (or less) a day but food companies are going to start creating even worse products out of cheap low grade ingredients tarted up with sophisticated flavourings. Nurtitionally barren foods.
Many overweight peple are malnourished as it is.

I am now planning a survival strategy (being very slim for fashionable reasons, I may end up being one of the starving as I have no spare) but it involves selling our unsellable house and replacing it with something with an acre.
I heard that a family of 4 can feed themselves from an acre.

We have permission to dig up the rented garden as the lower half is fenced off and overgrown...60' X 60'.

But it's time...how does one find the time for all this self sufficiency?

We were up the East End today and all the people there have nowhere to grow anything.

fc123

Alan_M wrote: »

I've had first hand experience of this in the last month.

Stock finance (on which we operate) is simply not being offered.

I took a couple of large orders last week that needed financing to cover the production and import stages......my bank manager was looking at me just like the guy from the Nationwide adds - "whaddya want me to do about it?".....I was just waiting for the "Gotta have a bit of bubbly for the shareholders" quote.

It seems banks have stopped their fundamental business at all levels, I am talking to crippled companies on a daily basis that are heamoraging employees......

It's not rosy out there, I understand there are problems but I'm looking at a horrible overreaction that's doing no one any good at all.

A self fulfilling prophesy (prophecy?) then?

The panic, then the reaction to the panic is almost causing the meltdown....but then the banks will pat themselves on the back (when Armaggedon arrives) and say 'See, were correct to be cautious...look at the mess'.....................................................................and we are all living Mad Max lives.

ManAtHome

Sad but true...

Politicians send The Dumpertruck Of Dosh over to the finance peeps so the economy doesn't melt down, finance peeps think "hang on, all this dosh will devalue the currency, better stick it in commodities", commodities go up making everyone else a bit skinter so they stop spending money, so the economy melts down... (well apart from the finance peeps, but they'll be able to offer the politicians a bit of consultancy work when the chairs are re-arranged, so looks like a win/win/lose situation - guess which camp most of us are in...).

fc123

ManAtHome wrote: »

Sad but true...

Politicians send The Dumpertruck Of Dosh over to the finance peeps so the economy doesn't melt down, finance peeps think "hang on, all this dosh will devalue the currency, better stick it in commodities", commodities go up making everyone else a bit skinter so they stop spending money, so the economy melts down... (well apart from the finance peeps, but they'll be able to offer the politicians a bit of consultancy work when the chairs are re-arranged, so looks like a win/win/lose situation - guess which camp most of us are in...).

So the banks kept the cash? Why couldn't the Govt. work out that that was what they were going to do?

m00m00

because the government don't care

they'll all get well paid consultancy jobs for the same banks, after they get kicked out of parliament.

all that matters is keeping the corporate snouts in the trough.

the little people like us, don't matter at all