Is the credit crunch really ending?

m00m00

those 4x4's and 46 inch tvs, soon add up

fc123

jammie*dodger wrote: »

How does someone earning £150k p.a. not have any savings? :eek:

because they got to that level of salary through hard work, talent and luck in a bubble service sector..............and thought that was that. They had succeeded and it was now just going to last for ever and ever (or get better still).......and they would get around to some saving at some point later on after enjoying the now.

I'm a bit obsessed with Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the moment.
This interview is a good intro to his theories.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091.ece

Lotus-eater

jammie*dodger wrote: »

How does someone earning £150k p.a. not have any savings? :eek:

Quite easily

Lets get a big house near London, two 4x4's one for the Mrs to take the kids to school. A little sports car for me at weekends, Oh and the kids have to go to private school, thats £40k+ a year to start with.

Mmmm looks like I'm a bit short this year, can't ask the Mrs to work or tell her about the money, she just expects it to keep coming in and spends like there is no tomorrow..... I'll just borrow a little from the bank and pay it back with my huge bonus I know I have coming in.

fc123

Lotus-eater wrote: »

Quite easily

Lets get a big house near London, two 4x4's one for the Mrs to take the kids to school. A little sports car for me at weekends, Oh and the kids have to go to private school, thats £40k+ a year to start with.

Mmmm looks like I'm a bit short this year, can't ask the Mrs to work or tell her about the money, she just expects it to keep coming in and spends like there is no tomorrow..... I'll just borrow a little from the bank and pay it back with my huge bonus I know I have coming in.

I have to defend this view as one can end up in that scenario without even noticing it happening..............it's just the result of of a lot of effort, bit of talent and hard work.
We got a taste of nice life (after 10 years of c4ap life I may add) for a few years and weren't that extravagant in material things and hardly had hols except weeks away surfing in Newquay). However, due to living in a society that spent the taxes on things that didn't benefit us (like decent schools) we chose to spend a fortune on educating our children. TBH we would be fine now if we had that 6 figure sum in the bank.
We lived in a borough that had the 3rd worst schools in the whole UK. Move? Our business was centred there, it's where we grew up, it was just our area.
It's easy to judge people in a general way (and I was like that 10 yrs back) but a trawl around all the different boards shows that people can get into a spot through all sorts of reasons.

When I'm 60 I'm going to start a revolution...to busy now being an honest citizen..........because, deep down, I am really, really cross.:mad:

WTF?_2

fc123 wrote: »

because they got to that level of salary through hard work, talent and luck in a bubble service sector..............and thought that was that. They had succeeded and it was now just going to last for ever and ever (or get better still).......and they would get around to some saving at some point later on after enjoying the now.

I'm a bit obsessed with Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the moment.
This interview is a good intro to his theories.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4022091.ece

Interesting but his theories are hardly rocket science. Put most of your money into a safe investment and risk a small proportion on long shots in the hope that if you get lucky, you win big. I think he just happened to get lucky but at least he's had the sense to realise that. He has also had the good business sense to milk his good luck with books and lectures Kind of like the financial equivalent of the winner of Big Brother.

He's right about the vulnerability of our complex financial systems and lack of sense of the 'experts' though again, that's common sense.

At the end of the day there's no magic way to make lots of money, guaranteed, in the markets. The best you can do is closely follow trends as many traders do and make decent amounts by betting large amounts of money on 'sure things'. ie jump on the bandwagon as soon as it starts and get off before it stops.


Not too sure about his theories on eating or exercise though. Lower carbs does sound like a good idea but the irregular exercise? If anything, early humans were constantly exercising just to scavenge/hunt enough food to live.

fc123

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Interesting but his theories are hardly rocket science. Put most of your money into a safe investment and risk a small proportion on long shots in the hope that if you get lucky, you win big. I think he just happened to get lucky but at least he's had the sense to realise that. He has also had the good business sense to milk his good luck with books and lectures Kind of like the financial equivalent of the winner of Big Brother.

He's right about the vulnerability of our complex financial systems and lack of sense of the 'experts' though again, that's common sense.

At the end of the day there's no magic way to make lots of money, guaranteed, in the markets. The best you can do is closely follow trends as many traders do and make decent amounts by betting large amounts of money on 'sure things'. ie jump on the bandwagon as soon as it starts and get off before it stops.


Not too sure about his theories on eating or exercise though. Lower carbs does sound like a good idea but the irregular exercise? If anything, early humans were constantly exercising just to scavenge/hunt enough food to live.

come on !!!!!! we need to get you on trend here .

He had the ability to write about random events in a way that.....(gosh I've had a half Cotes Du Rhone and not enough roast pots tonight...my brain is so dead)....that.....................


says...you are not where you are TOTALLY through yoiur own skill, ability and hard work...luck played a part (and he means luck within the market of whichever trade one is in).

I make things (yup...outdated business model I know) and apply his theories to my own life...and we have had black swans but also have had successes...but it wasn't just our skill that made them a success...it was the market at the time (I'm not reffering to invstmt market...just in general)


His theories are not new, it's just the way he has presented them........my dad is an emeritas prof in math and comp science and has been gripped by it as it....he swiped my 'Fooled by Randomness' before I got to finish it........... is only later in his life, that he see's that one cannot plan for every eventuality....and that's not how his mind works.


As to on trend...it's not what you say...it's how you say it...marketed in a modern way

fc123

Oh and the complex carbs...spot on. I don't think I will ever get to fulfill my dream of doing an BSc in nutrition....but ..........if they were banned, a lot of people would have the energy to get off the sofa.
Excercise has saved my sanity I think over the years...though I only swim 50 fast lengths 4 times a wk so I can still wear halter necks.....the sanity is a kind of bonus.
Endorphins are good for the soul in moderation.