Debate House Prices
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When will the market stabilise?

jamtart6
Posts: 8,302 Forumite
Ok this is a serious question, as I have ZERO knowledge of these things. I also know no one has a crystal ball, but does anyone with any knowledge have any idea what rough time scale we would be talking about for the house price market?
6 months? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?
Previously I've thought about 1 year, then I read somewhere that last time this happened it was 8 years! :eek: which was a bit of a shock, I can hold off buying 12-18months but not 8 years!!
6 months? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?
Previously I've thought about 1 year, then I read somewhere that last time this happened it was 8 years! :eek: which was a bit of a shock, I can hold off buying 12-18months but not 8 years!!
:ABeing Thrifty Gifty again this year:A
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Nobody can honestly answer that question. The market will stabilise when the banks have sorted themselves out & buyer confidence returns to the market place. When that will be is anybodies guess.0
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Nobody can honestly answer that question. The market will stabilise when the banks have sorted themselves out & buyer confidence returns to the market place. When that will be is anybodies guess.
What do the banks need to do to sort themselves out?
:ABeing Thrifty Gifty again this year:A
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Nobody can honestly answer that question. The market will stabilise when the banks have sorted themselves out & buyer confidence returns to the market place. When that will be is anybodies guess.
If the economy nose dives and the job losses begin to mount, as has happened in the US, then we could be looking at 5+ years maybe longer before we reach the bottom of this cycle.
:beer:0 -
I think that this is very area specific. I just pointed out in a different thread that a similar 2BR terrace to the one we are buying for 147k in south Manchester would cost £285k in Cambridge & £190k in York... so my opinion is that areas that have less distance to fall will stabilise sooner than more overpriced areas. Certain areas in the Northeast, Wales & Midlands may already have their flatline (or be close to it). However, places that demand £300k for a 2BR house... well there is much more volatility ahead.
One thing is certain- nothing is "going up" for years. My opinion is that prices will fall between 10-50% over a period of 3-5 years, depending on area, degree overvalued & type of house.0 -
At risk of being obsessed with the futures market, it predicts:
A big fall in 2008
A significant fall in 2009
Not much of a fall in 2010Hurrah, now I have more thankings than postings, cheers everyone!0 -
Ok this is a serious question, as I have ZERO knowledge of these things. I also know no one has a crystal ball, but does anyone with any knowledge have any idea what rough time scale we would be talking about for the house price market?
6 months? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?
Previously I've thought about 1 year, then I read somewhere that last time this happened it was 8 years! :eek: which was a bit of a shock, I can hold off buying 12-18months but not 8 years!!
House had been on for 80k (I think but could have been 90k) and was reduced to 70k.
We offerred 60k as that was our limit. Bloke took it.
There wasn't the info around then that there is now but I remember my dad saying to wait 2 years....howver I would have gone crazy with the ants, concrete cancer (damp), cockroaches, constant burglary attempts plus son was 3 at the time and there were schools to consider.
We renovated derelict 1st home over 5 yrs and every penny spent (around 15k) disapeared in negative equity. Had we not had a realistic seller who took our offer, could have been worse.
But I loved living there and when we sold in 1996 (for 60k) and traded up we have 'gained' since ....the trade up wouldn't have been possible at todays prices.
I only post this as I have the hindsight from the decision.
Looking back, we should have toughed it out for a further year (my fault, hubby wasn't as bothered) but I can't remember the mortgage situation then...would we have got a mortgage as easily a year later????
My advice FWIW would be on your current living situation; if it's a nightmare (for whatever reason) then start looking and cut the best deal you can but if it's just a preference, take PN and others advice and wait 12 months.0 -
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thanks for the replies and not ridiculing me completely!!
we were eager to buy as we knew if we didnt jump on the wagon NOW, we wouldn't be able to afford it if the prices increase as they have done in the last 3-4 years. Ideally Im holding out for the marriage proposal before I consider buying, but in the old housing market climate, I realised it was quite important to buy NOW as our first marital home could quite easily have been a tent!!
However now, we are both at home with our parents (who we both get on with very well) paying peanuts to live there, saving up as much of a deposit as poss (trying to put away the mortgage money each month as a minimum) and are happy to wait if it means we get a better deal. I just feel like at this stage of our relationship we're ready to get married and get a house and live together so its not a nightmare, but is something we both want to do asap.
I think we could probably wait until mid-end of 2009 and then see. I'm still viewing houses, as you just never know if vendors will drop their prices. I've seen lots of reductions here lately!
Thanks for the advice!
:ABeing Thrifty Gifty again this year:A
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thanks for the replies and not ridiculing me completely!!
we were eager to buy as we knew if we didnt jump on the wagon NOW, we wouldn't be able to afford it if the prices increase as they have done in the last 3-4 years. Ideally Im holding out for the marriage proposal before I consider buying, but in the old housing market climate, I realised it was quite important to buy NOW as our first marital home could quite easily have been a tent!!
However now, we are both at home with our parents (who we both get on with very well) paying peanuts to live there, saving up as much of a deposit as poss (trying to put away the mortgage money each month as a minimum) and are happy to wait if it means we get a better deal. I just feel like at this stage of our relationship we're ready to get married and get a house and live together so its not a nightmare, but is something we both want to do asap.
I think we could probably wait until mid-end of 2009 and then see. I'm still viewing houses, as you just never know if vendors will drop their prices. I've seen lots of reductions here lately!
Thanks for the advice!
No-one knows for sure what will happen. Personally, due to the state the banks are currently in and the cost of living going through the roof (think utilities/fuel prices which are only going to continue rising) I don't see any of this being sorted any time soon. There's gonna be a hell of a lot of people getting repo'd because they simply can no longer makes ends meet, especially those with fixed rate deals coming to an end that suddenly discover they need to find another £100 per month from somewhere.
I predict it'll be around 5 years before the market starts recovering and in that time house prices will have dropped 35-40%.
You'll definitely be able to get the same house today far cheaper in "mid-end 2009" (I'd personally wager my own house on that happening) but I think you'd quickly find yourself in negative equity if you did buy. If you plan to live there long term then that might not be an issue to you, but by holding out another year or so you could easily be saving yourself a large wad of cash.
All imho of course.
Rob0 -
Well takin all the indicators...and assuming we don't get a global slump.... prices should fall about 10-12% y on y this year and early next, with another 10-12% in 2009/10... i think they will stabalise then.
They'll start to climb 2-5 years after that.
BoE Intrest rates will fall to about 4 percent during this time... assuming inflation doesn't take off..and the also assuming BoE rates get back to actually impacting banks ability to lend
This would follow the pattern in the states, and is basically what the boe and the imf, and the banks are expecting.
The factors that could change this are
1) rampant inflation.
2) rising unemployment.
3) bigger than expected recession
4) Stagflation
5) Major world crisis
6) global slump0
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