price drops #2

Generali

MUDGUTS wrote: »

Many thanks Generali.

I was assuming about five years or so. At present I don't know where in the world I'll be by then, (highly doubt the UK) but if I did want to buy here then that would be about the time I'm thinking of.

Nobody really knows what the price of anything will be in 5 years time.

Generally speaking the most accurate assumption to make about the economy at any given point is that things will be ok-ish. Say interest rates of about 5-6%, GDP growth of about 2.2%, unemployment of 5-6%, returns from assets like shares of about 7% and a little more from housing (to reflect the higher risk so overall the return is slightly lower than equities, usually).

You're far better off working hard, saving a little money each month, trying to improve any skills you have relating to your job, exercising a couple of times a week and enjoying your time off than you are trying to predict the price of an asset on a particular date in the future.

Turnbull2000

Two anecdotes from North East England;

Sister's very nice coastal 3 bed terrace has been listed for two weeks. It's still early days, but there's been no interest whatsoever.

Work collegue looking to sell 2 bed semi a few miles West of Newcastle. Been listed since February. Was a query on property after two days, but stone dead ever since. Only known a rising market, so rather than reduce the price, will attempt to let out instead. Recently overhead a phonecall to his lender requesting to extend the mortgage term and reduce monthly repayments, BEFORE he considered letting. So if he's stretched with a single mortgage, I don't know how he'll handle two should he experience a void.

edit: Oh, and my very own street is strewn with 'For Sale' and 'To Let' boards.

MrDT

Not much going on round here yet, just an awful lot of for sale boards up and nobody buying. Sellers yet to accept that prices need to be lowered.

One exception is a local 2 bed flat (not in a great area) that has been at asking price 80k for about 6 months - just dropped to 'offers over 65k'. That's quite a huge drop in my opinion, but I don't think I'd like to live there.

Now if the 100k houses in ok areas drop by a similar rate to about 80k, that's when I'll start getting excited

edit - 'here' being north wales btw

Poppea

I'm down in the south east and I've noticed some small and some huge price drops.

A couple of examples of the latter are a five bed detached house with annex in Fleet which had been under offer for many months at 450k now back on the market at a guide price of 350k. Also a four bed detached house in Crowthorne which was priced at 410k and under offer last July came back on the market at 399,950 in the new year. After a few weeks it was reduced to 389,950 and was under offer again. A couple of weeks later it was back on the market and down to 355k (very cheap for this road/area). It's been under offer and back on the market two more times. As we speak it's under offer again.

Reductions of 20k on properties around the 300-400k mark seem quite common round here.

kristianwilliams

flat Im currently in, has an identical flat opposite (used to be two houses) with a shop below us and a holding unit and small flat below next door.

We moved in right after the last guys left, as well as jo next door and whats her name below her.

The rent is cheep as chips really compared to what is being thrown around on here (£400 a month) and both rooms are double and its quite big. (I'd say as big as my sisters house, but flat instead of the rooms above the living room.) and were always occupied.

Next door moved out, and thats it... no one has moved in for 2 months. Looking around, houses that were asking for £600 a month rent are now asking £500. Infact two houses have just come on the market bigger than our flat, for the exact same rent as we are paying.

Currently paying of debt and hoping to be debt free in about 20months. Going to save then for two more years for around £10,000 deposit.

Im hoping we're going to either be on the end of the fall, the stagnation, or even the start of the rise. Either way, I can see houses being cheaper than they are now (duh). Unless credit becomes cheep again, they probably will not reach such silly numbers (compared to inflation) again.

Was asked by a friend (who has just bought a house) why I was so activly researching the market now if I was planning on waiting 4 years. Simple answer. I like to know what im getting myself into for the rest of my life. Guy has little clue about whats going on, but here's hoping he can cope.

LillyJ

Not sure what is happening to sale prices but some drops in asking prices, particularly on things that were overoptimistic to start with. Things priced normally (ie greedy) are selling (quite a few things we looked at have since gone).

Round here things tend to change hands about now, as there are lots of student rentals, and when the students go home for the summer the BTLs sell or buy. So may slow down more towards September time.

I think there are actually less things coming on the market than a few months ago, perhaps because people think they won't get a good price and are staying put?

Also rents have gone up pretty drastically, a lot of friends renewing their tenancies (nearly all round here are July to July due to the student population) have seen massive increases.

sarkin

m00m00 wrote: »

well, I've been doing a little bit of property bee dabbling as a few people might know


I would say that on average 10-15% of all properties listed in an area I'm tracking is reduced in a month, with the median discount being around 5k, and around 3-4%

Propoperty bee for bournemouth has 1-2 price drops around the 10K mark, with some properties on since Feb with 20K off asking price.

shelovestobuystuff

Scottish town with the largest increase in prices over the last 5 years.Agter a last minute influx of developers we are left with an unsold glut of "luxury" flats,needless to say prices are rocketing downwards.1 and 2 bed flats coming on the market at prices I have not seen for 3 or 4 years and others reduced by 20-30K.Quite a big increase in the fixed price sales too.Houses up to 3 bed drastically reduced and again coming on at really low prices.4 bed and over staying solid though.Properties are selling well though.Probably to FTB who have been desperate to get a place and can at last afford to.

MUDGUTS

Whenever the conversation turns to the HPC Greedy and stupid are two words that I'm frequently seeing on various forums.

Talking to someone last night about this another word came into the conversation: Sympathy

I have sympathy for anyone who finds themselves in the DOO-DOO as a result of the HPC through no fault of their own but no sympathy for those for whom it's their own making.

Just out of interest (and slightly off-topic) what do readers think the percentages are?

Mine:

In DOO-DOO as a result of stupidity and greed: 80%

In DOO-DOO through no fault of their own: 20%

LillyJ

dolcevita wrote: »

No.

Prices are "sticky" not because people don't want to sell at a particular price, but because they can't afford to sell at that price.

Up to their eyeballs in debt, and too greedy and stupid to see what is going on, indebted sellers will try to hold on and hope HPI comes to their rescue.

But their hope is futile.

Because the very thing that caused HPI is the very thing that will bring it to an end - DEBT

The days of cheap and easy money are over and what will bring the market down this time is not unemployment, high interest rates or anything else that happened before but the fact that too many people - individuals, companies, banks, governments, countries - have spent more money than they can afford and the day of reckoning is upon us.


rant over

Our seller just didn't WANT to lower their price. They had over 60% equity in the property. It was nothing to do with debt, they just wanted that price.