'BTL Landlords go long'

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Surely you concede then that as you will be looking for two properties then demand is going to soar.

Either that or you wont get the drops you percieve and you can only afford one property.

No - how many people are going to be in good shape to buy two properties in a few years time? Possibly not myself if circumstances change (ie I lose my job). I'm in a very favourable position at the moment which is why I'm thinking of it now.

You seem to be under the misapprehension that the ease of obtaining a cheap mortgage is going to return to the market sometime soon. That isn't going to happen. Cheap mortgages have fuelled the BTL explosion. They've also made people greedy to the point where they start 'building a portfolio' by leveraging existing assets. Leveraging works in both directions as they are about to find out.

In the future, buying property will mean having a decent amount of savings and a good income stream to fund repayments. It simply won't be possible to invest/speculate in property with a 'no questions asked' cheap mortgage as has been happening in recent times.

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

No - how many people are going to be in good shape to buy two properties in a few years time? Possibly not myself if circumstances change (ie I lose my job). I'm in a very favourable position at the moment which is why I'm thinking of it now.

Fair enough, but if there are more out there like you and with a reported only 2% of BTL LL's selling up, there may just be more BTL's after this has sorted itself out than there are now.

!!!!!!? wrote: »

You seem to be under the misapprehension that the ease of obtaining a cheap mortgage is going to return to the market sometime soon. That isn't going to happen. Cheap mortgages have fuelled the BTL explosion. They've also made people greedy to the point where they start 'building a portfolio' by leveraging existing assets. Leveraging works in both directions as they are about to find out.

I absolutely am not.
I have said on many occasions the days of easy credit are over and what people will see is a return to the norm where you need to have a substantial deposit and a good credit rating.

what I was doing in my post was pointing out that you on one hand said there would be less BTL LL's and in another said you yourself was thinking about becoming a new BTL LL.

!!!!!!? wrote: »

In the future, buying property will mean having a decent amount of savings and a good income stream to fund repayments. It simply won't be possible to invest/speculate in property with a 'no questions asked' cheap mortgage as has been happening in recent times.

Agreed, covered in the above point

Fred1_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Hear hear.
in Scotland all Landlords need to be registered with the government. The reason for this is to ensure that your are a suitable landlord.

What a good idea.

I looked into my local council's voluntary landlord registration scheme and can see no benefit to either me or my tenant. When I asked for a copy of the Code of Conduct that I was supposed to sign up to, I was told that it was being updated to reflect the changes brought in by the Housing Act 2004!

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I absolutely am not.
I have said on many occasions the days of easy credit are over and what people will see is a return to the norm where you need to have a substantial deposit and a good credit rating.

what I was doing in my post was pointing out that you on one hand said there would be less BTL LL's and in another said you yourself was thinking about becoming a new BTL LL.

If you examine your argument about people wanting to get into BTL and therefore stimulating demand, you'll see that it depends on the ease of getting mortgages to buy BTL property remaining in place.

It's no coincidence that BTL has rocketed in the last decade in tandem with the credit bubble. If BTL is such a surefire, easy thing then why do people only seem to have copped onto that fact en-masse in the last decade? Could it be perhaps that, absent lax credit conditions, BTL is a bit more of a tricky thing to get into? How about considering that such conditions only really made mass BTL investment possible when it wasn't before.

I can foresee getting into BTL myself in a few year's time despite the likely adverse credit conditions because I have a decent amount of cash behind me now which should increase a bit even as the price of what I want to buy (property) falls. That won't be the case for much of the population who are up to their gills swimming in debt right now. It might not even be the case for me come that time.


Owning a BTL property used to mean that you were a very well capitalised person with the means to obtain a mortgage for a second property (excepting of course those who inherited a second property or maybe who got married and ended up with two properties) and enough financial nous to understand what you were doing.

In recent times it means your house went up by a boatload of money and you withdrew the equity to get a cheap and easy mortgage on another house because 'you can't ever lose with property'. Many of these genii then realised that what with the magically ever-increasing house price market they could then do the same again: Hey presto! A property portfolio and you are a property manager! Treat yourself with a nice 4x4 to cruise around in and tell anyone who will listen what a tycoon you are :rotfl:


Take away the cheap and easy means to purchase additional properties, add the generally grim financial state the economy is likely to be in and top off with an almost certain shift in sentiment to 'property loses you a packet' and it's not hard to see that BTL's popularity as an investment is going to fall like a stone.

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? Re-read the posts.
i am not arguing that BTL is going to increase, I am pointing out that YOU said it will decrease and also YOU said you would consider becoming a LL

Take time to read the points and respond accordingly instead of ranting off at a tangent with the same old troll

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

!!!!!!? Re-read the posts.
i am not arguing that BTL is going to increase, I am pointing out that YOU said it will decrease and also YOU said you would consider becoming a LL

Take time to read the points and respond accordingly instead of ranting off at a tangent with the same old troll

Yes - I said it would decrease and Yes - I am considering getting into it at a later point myself.

I don't see how those statements are contradictory. Perhaps you can explain?

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Yes - I said it would decrease and Yes - I am considering getting into it at a later point myself.

I don't see how those statements are contradictory. Perhaps you can explain?

You said

By the time this is over there are going to be a good few less BTL properties out there.]

Yet by self proclamation, you say you will be partially propping up BTL LL properties by investing in this yourself.

The OP stated

Vincenzo wrote: »

No big surprise but interesting to some figures all the same......

Buy-to-let landlords go long

24/04/2008 09:00

Just 2% of buy-to-let landlords are planning to sell properties when tenant leases expire, according to a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

The low percentage is surprising given that RICS’ latest quarterly survey showed 4.6% of landlords were planning to sell property. Rising rents and worries over prices and mortgage blockages could be affecting landlords’ decisions, it said.

RICS said the latest data suggested that fears of a wave of selling by buy-to-let landlords was “misplaced” and that the housing market would not have to cope with a sharp increase in supply from this source. There had been concerns that buy-to-let landlords would take advantage of the cut in capital gains tax this month to offload investments. RICS surveyed 500 residential letting agents.
24/04/08 Financial Times 2

So if there is only a 2% drop, while this may be a little more or a little less, you reckon that savvy investors will be coming in to buy properties when financially the prices make sense.

You have made some good points throughout the forum, some I agree with, some I dont.

Surely though you can see how by saying there will be less BTL properties and also saying you may buy a BTL property contradicts each other.

Unless you think you are the only wise investor with money to invest.......

Vincenzo

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Take away the cheap and easy means to purchase additional properties, add the generally grim financial state the economy is likely to be in and top off with an almost certain shift in sentiment to 'property loses you a packet' and it's not hard to see that BTL's popularity as an investment is going to fall like a stone.

Whilst I am a little more optimistic for the future, I think you are right to call time on the excessive popularity of BTL.

I wonder what will come next? I remember in c.2000 when everyone I knew suddenly became a stock market trader. Many of them lost a great deal taking punts on companies they read about in the FT in the morning and had invested by lunchtime.

Many of those people, unsurprisingly turned their attention to property. Perhaps now they will turn to commodities trading? Or spread betting?? I hear you can make loads in that game!

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You said
[/i]
Yet by self proclamation, you say you will be partially propping up BTL LL properties by investing in this yourself.

The OP stated


So if there is only a 2% drop, while this may be a little more or a little less, you reckon that savvy investors will be coming in to buy properties when financially the prices make sense.

You have made some good points throughout the forum, some I agree with, some I dont.

Surely though you can see how by saying there will be less BTL properties and also saying you may buy a BTL property contradicts each other.

Unless you think you are the only wise investor with money to invest.......

I think we definitely need a "Bang head against wall" smiley.

One final time in the hope that gets through: There is no contradiction between me seeing a likely decline in overall BTL investment in the 3-5 year timeframe and me personally planning to invest in BTL in that timeframe.

* I've explained why I think BTL generally will decline. It's mainly about means.

* I've explained why I personally am considering investment (at the appropriate time) and why I think I will be in a position to do so.


I really can't be bothered chasing the argument around in circles any more. You seem quite peeved off that in fact I am not anti-BTL per se, just completely anti-BTL investment at this time.

WTF?_2

Vincenzo wrote: »

Whilst I am a little more optimistic for the future, I think you are right to call time on the excessive popularity of BTL.

I wonder what will come next? I remember in c.2000 when everyone I knew suddenly became a stock market trader. Many of them lost a great deal taking punts on companies they read about in the FT in the morning and had invested by lunchtime.

Many of those people, unsurprisingly turned their attention to property. Perhaps now they will turn to commodities trading? Or spread betting?? I here you can make loads in that game!

What's next for the big boys is soft commodities and energy (already happening - just look at the prices in the shops, rising gas and electricity bills and at petrol stations). All that lovely central bank bailout money has to go somewhere.

I suspect that the general public however won't have the spare cash/ access to borrowed cash to throw around in what they perceive as investments. There are an awful lot of indebted people out there who have spent their next 3-5 years' wages.