Housing gloom 'worst in 30 years'

adr0ck

Datasafe wrote: »

Errr no. I'm still struggling with this one. By what you say someones house needs to last 1000 years, indeed 50% needs to last 500 years. Most of the housing in this country is 1920ish onwards. Thats still less than 100 years.

I still doubt that statement is true.

i'm not stating that peoples houses will last 500 years plus

i am stating that at the current rate at which we build houses it will take us a very long time (approx 1000) yrs to replace our housing stock

which part of that statement can you (and your friends) not grasp

its quite simple really.....we build x number of properties a year so to replace our housing stock of x (at current housebuilding rates) it will take x years

I think the figure is 0.1% - if that helps

thats the % of our housing stock that we replace each year

adr0ck

Datasafe wrote: »

I still doubt that statement is true.

don't doubt it datasafe.................just work it out for yourself

you may need calculator...i did

Laughing_Man_2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I doubt we'll see the same scale of 'destruction' where quite literally whole neighbourhoods become deserted and derelict and values there become effectively zero. The resulting carnage destroyed lenders' capital on a large scale and hence the credit crunch which has hit the world.

However, we will see substantial price drops with many, many people in real financial trouble. Some of them greedy idiot speculators who ploughed money blindly into a 'sure thing', others who MEWed their way into crushing debt and quite a few who unfortunately and unwisely borrowed to buy overpriced housing on the back of sentiment.

We'll also see some serious problems in UK banks as people default on loans (they are already on shaky ground) and a very nasty recession as retail spending dries up and the finance sector cuts jobs.

I wiil add to this that America has a relatively elastic supply of housing stock and a more fragmented market. Thus more houses were built relatively than here, and alot will actually be demolished in the hardest hit areas.

There are also many places in the states that didn't really boom, so won't really crash either.

To make a comparison then a crash here will ultimately leve those city centre flats occupied by someone- but only after the original owners have suffered catastrophic losses as our housing stock is inelastic we are unlikley to see a contraction of any sort.

Our market has also experienced the well publicised 'ripple effect' where every sector of it has experienced the boom- so losses will equally widespread, yes even (probably particularly) in the hallowed streets of London. So our total headline decline will, IMO, probably be much larger than in the U.S, but be equal to that experienced in the crash regions. We are also unlikely to see huge swathes of newbuilds torn down as everyone bails out- mores the pity.

stonethrower

your not understanding the basic principles of the Japanese housing market

you need to understand how quickly the japanese replace their homes

think its every 30 Yrs

compared to UK every 1000 Yrs

therefore you cannot compare these markets

I too have looked to try verify this with no joy, I mentioned it to my brother as he lived there for 10 years and he thinks its wrong.

Walter_J

izzybusy23 wrote: »

Ooh watch what you say!! You've repeated similar things to what I have said recently and got completely lambasted by quite new folk on this forum who had a dig at me who don't even know me or my own personal situation who just want to tell you what a nasty little person you are.. charmer I think was the word used.

Watch out, bullies about!!

Completely forgot to say, good post, my sentiments exactly. This has gone above house prices, its total greed now and people just don't know when to stop stuffing their fizogs.

I too agree with the sentiments, and have posted similar here on several occasions. And I too was lambasted by the brain-dead bubble denyers.

What's happened to them?

Where are they?

Boning up for their meeting with the Official Receiver tomorrow?

tomstickland

It's a long story but I would come into contact with these types a lot and out of curiosity I would ask them if they thought there would be a house price crash. The answer, from just about all was no.

I don't come into contact with many materialistic people. Does anyone else have experience of this sort of behaviour? ie: manic spending of non-existant money based on the value of a house.

epz_2

RDB wrote: »

The truth is the older the better in the UK. The materials were better back then.

Some buildings several hundred or more years old built of stone are very good quality and will last over 1000yrs.

In Japan they are built to flex with Earth quakes and are designed to be torn down and built again in about 25 yrs.

Not so much built better but the ones that have lasted did so for a reason.

While i accept you cant really buy wood the same quality as the the days before the forrest equivalent of battery farming took off its more complicated than they are of better quality.

It would be hard but perfectly possible to build a Victorian style house with the space(gardens, rooms and ceilings), features and build quality considerably cheaper than most of those places sell for but I'm betting it will be a planning nightmare.

Especially these days trying to explain to a council muppet that you dont give a monkeys about the environment or heating costs and want 12 foot ceilings as they will make you a happier person and thats not even mentioning how stupidly expensive land is cause of planning.

MUDGUTS

tomstickland wrote: »

I don't come into contact with many materialistic people. Does anyone else have experience of this sort of behaviour? ie: manic spending of non-existant money based on the value of a house.

Its a long story Tom, but the contact was when I was delivering stuff to houses, used to come across these types at least once a day for around three years or so.

They thought it would never end...

fc123

tomstickland wrote: »

I don't come into contact with many materialistic people. Does anyone else have experience of this sort of behaviour? ie: manic spending of non-existant money based on the value of a house.

I've known a few plus as I deal with the general public in a spending kind of way (they spend with me) and the ones that spend a lot, I get to know well over time. It's good customer relations

Those that have done this the most (and these are the 'saddest' include some good friends of mine) are those that 'got lucky' with a RTB or deposit from HA that helped them onto the ladder several years back.
The feeling of 'owning' an asset that was 'worth' 150k over the mortgage made them 'feel wealthier'. It also 'felt' like money for nothing too.

It took 2 dodgy secured loan deals to make our friend realise that equity wasn't like cash under the bed BUT a way of borrowing that wasn't open to them before.
I have sympathy for them as because it's about education.
Now they understand and, thanks to help from this site, are managing to move forward (and keep up with repayments).

Not everyone understands compound interest, loan deals and the like.

nelly_2

fc123 wrote: »

Not everyone understands compound interest, loan deals and the like.

And the rest of us dont understand how they dont understand that!