Mortgage under European Bank Rates - to fix or not

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We live in France and we’re in the process of deciding on a mortgage.

In France, you generally ‘fix’ for the whole term of the mortgage (in our case, 15 years), or take a capped variable. As in the UK, different banks offer different things.

At the moment, the fixed rate tends to be at 4.1%, while the variable tends to be around 3.5%. The ‘capping’ differs from bank to bank. The variable with the Société General, for example, can go up or down by 1% - ie. up to 4.5% or down to 2.5%.

With the Caisse d’Epargne, the rates can go up or down by 2.5% - ie. the maximum would be 6%, but with this mortgage, rates are only reviewed on a 5 yearly basis, meaning that the rate is effectively fixed for the first 5 years at 3.5%. However, thereafter, it could become more expensive than the others (and not easy to get out of).

I’m tending towards a fixed loan of 4.1% because rates seem very low at the moment, and I can’t imagine them going much lower. Therefore, purely by guesswork, I reckon that over the next 15 years, the only way they can go is up – but I know absolutely nothing about the projected stability of the European Bank, so my reckoning may be well wide of the mark. :-/

I guess it depends what happens worldwide, especially with the US markets, but when we go into areas like this, I’m completely lost.

Basically, what should we do? ???